Moderates in Middle East May Suffer if Israeli-Hamas Conflict Continues Unabated
以巴冲突继续将损害中东温和派

　 
Israeli warplanes continue to hit suspected Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, Palestinian militants are keeping up their rocket and mortar attacks on Israeli border communities.

以色列的战机继续轰炸加沙地区被认为是哈马斯的目标。与此同时，巴勒斯坦激进分子持续向以色列边境地区发射火箭弹和迫击炮弹。

The violence erupted after a six-month Hamas-Israeli ceasefire expired on December 19. The Palestinian militant group stepped up its shelling of Israeli communities, prompting the massive Israeli response.

这次暴力冲突是在12月19号执行了六个月的哈马斯-以色列停火协议到期之后爆发的。巴勒斯坦激进组织哈马斯加紧了对以色列的炮火攻击，从而引发了以色列的大规模报复。

Many analysts say this is the biggest military offensive against Gaza since Israel occupied the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Six-Day War. Israel's Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, said the country is currently engaged in an all-out conflict against Hamas.

许多分析人士说，这是自从以色列1967年通过六日战争占领约旦河西岸和加沙地带以来对加沙发动的最大规模的军事进攻。以色列国防部长巴拉克说，以色列目前在同哈马斯进行全面交战。

David Aaron, Director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, said that rhetoric is all too familiar.

美国兰德公司中东地区公共政策中心主任大卫.阿龙说，这种说法听起来实在太熟悉了。

"They [the Israelis] made a basic strategic decision to sort of end it once and for all. Well, unfortunately, we've heard that story before in their invasion of Lebanon [in 2006], which did not eradicate Hezbollah. But it has stopped Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against northern Israel," he said.

他说：“以色列作出了一个基本战略决定，那就是一劳永逸地解决这个问题。不幸的是，在以色列2006年入侵黎巴嫩之前，我们也听到过这样的说法，但是以色列并没能根除真主党。不过，它的确通过那次行动阻止了真主党对以色列北部发动袭击。”

The militant group Hamas has been in control of the Gaza Strip since June 2007, after it defeated forces loyal to the moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The United States considers Hamas to be a terrorist group and has accused it of starting this latest round of violence.

激进组织哈马斯自从2007年6月击败温和的巴勒斯坦民族机构主席阿巴斯领导的部队以来就一直控制着加沙。美国认为哈马斯是一个恐怖组织，并指责哈马斯挑起了最近的暴力冲突。

Fawaz Gerges is a Middle East expert at Sarah Lawrence College in New York. Speaking from Tripoli, Lebanon, he said the strong Israeli response has radicalized Arab public opinion in the region.

法瓦兹.盖尔盖斯是纽约莎拉.罗伦斯学院的中东问题专家。他在黎巴嫩的的黎波里接受采访时说，以色列激烈的报复行为使中东地区的阿拉伯民意变得更加激进。

"And it seems to me that the longer the crisis continues, the more radicalized Arab public opinion will likely become. There is no military solution for an essentially political crisis. Regardless of what one thinks of Hamas, the way that Israel has acted in the last few days is playing into Hamas' hands. The military escalation and the extent and the horrendous casualties on the Palestinian side are playing directly into Hamas' hands. They are weakening the moderate forces in the Arab world, particularly America's allies - Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia - and basically supplying ammunition to the so-called resistance front, particularly Iran and Syria and Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon," argued Gerges.

他说：“我认为，这场危机持续的时间越长，阿拉伯世界的民意就可能会变得越激进。从根本上说，这是一场政治危机，因此无法用军事行动来解决。不管你怎么看哈马斯，以色列最近几天采取的行动其实是正中哈马斯的下怀。军事冲突升级和巴勒斯坦方面令人吃惊的伤亡情况都符合哈马斯的计划。这削弱了阿拉伯世界的温和力量，特别是埃及、约旦和沙特阿拉伯这些美国的盟友，并从根本上为所谓的抵抗前线提供了口实，特别是伊朗、叙利亚、巴勒斯坦的哈马斯和黎巴嫩的真主党。”

David Aaron from RAND agreed, saying the crisis puts U.S. allies in the region in a difficult situation.

兰德公司的大卫.阿龙同意这种观点。他说，这场危机使美国在中东地区的盟友处境艰难。

"It puts them more on the spot because we have given them no coverage. If we had decided to simply call for a ceasefire and stoppage of violence and all the rest, that would have given them some cover. But we didn't. We said, 'This is the fault of Hamas.' Even if that's true, it certainly is not perceived that way in those countries. And so their governments are going to be the target of increased criticism on the part of their people for collaborating with us," he said.

他说：“这使它们的处境很为难，因为美国并没有为它们提供任何帮助。如果美国直接要求停火，结束暴力冲突，那么这些国家还能少受一些攻击。不过美国没有这样做。美国说‘这都是哈马斯的错。’即使事实真是这样，这些国家的人民却不是这么看的。所以这些国家的政府因为和美国合作而受到自己人民越来越多的批评。”

Aaron also said the United States and its allies should be concerned about what may happen on the West Bank. Will there be another intifada, an armed Palestinian uprising against Israeli rule?

他还说，美国及其盟国应当关注约旦河西岸的未来。那里是否会再次爆发反抗以色列统治的巴勒斯坦武装起义呢？

Many experts, including Aaron, said the latest conflict was in part due to the Bush administration's Middle East policy.

大卫.阿龙和许多专家说，布什政府的中东政策是导致最新的暴力冲突的部分原因。

"I think it was a complete failure. It didn't do anything, frankly. We did finally get some conversation between [Mahmoud] Abbas and [Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert. But then nobody knows where that was going and we see this conflict arising now. And it's hard for me to believe that that's going to strengthen the hand of those who want a dialogue with the Palestinians," he said.

他说：“我认为，布什政府的中东政策完全失败了。坦率讲，它并没有发挥任何作用。我们的确实现了在阿巴斯和奥尔默特之间进行对话，但是没人知道这些对话能带来什么，而我们目前看到的就是这场冲突。我不会相信这场冲突能加强巴勒斯坦方面支持对话的人的力量。”

The Bush administration says it has been consistently engaged in trying to find a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis.

布什政府表示，美国一直在积极努力为巴以危机找到解决办法。

Fawaz Gerges said one way to come closer to a political solution is to include Hamas in the process. But that, he said, will come about only if there is a different mindset.

法瓦兹.盖尔盖斯说，一个接近政治解决的办法是让哈马斯加入中东和平进程。不过他说，要这么做，美国政府必须改变其思维模式。

"A mindset that says Hamas is not a monolith, that yes, Hamas engages in terrorism, Hamas carries out certain terrorist actions, but Hamas is not just a huge monolith. There are multiple points of view and narratives within Hamas. And political engagement, I would argue, will likely strengthen the moderate elements not only within the region, but also within the Palestinian territories. In fact, I would argue, that a year from now, Hamas will likely remain as strong if not stronger - particularly if Israel and the United States insist on exclusion and on basically pursuing the military option, which basically will not really produce a breakthrough for this essentially political crisis in the region," he said.

他说：“新的思维模式应该承认哈马斯并不是铁板一块的一个实体。哈马斯的确参与恐怖主义，实施一些恐怖主义行动，但它并不是单一无逢的。在哈马斯内部有多种观点和言论。我认为，和哈马斯开展政治接触可以增强中东地区内部和巴勒斯坦恐怖分子内部温和派的力量。事实上，我认为，一年以后，哈马斯能保持目前的实力，甚至变得更强大，特别是如果以色列和美国坚持把哈马斯排斥在和平进程以外、并继续采取军事途径的话。中东的危机从根本上说是政治危机，用军事方法不能实现任何突破。”

Fawaz Gerges and David Aaron said a lot may change between now and January 20 when Barack Obama is officially sworn in as the new U.S. President. But they said one thing is clear - the current conflict proves that finding a political solution to the Middle East crisis should be the first item on President Obama's foreign policy agenda.

法瓦兹.盖尔盖斯和大卫.阿龙都说，从现在到明年1月20号奥巴马宣誓就任美国总统期间，许多事情都可能发生改变。不过他们说，有一点是清楚的，那就是，为中东危机找到政治解决方案应当是奥巴马外交政策议程上的首要任务。