Analysts: Afghanistan to be Key Challenge for Obama Administration
阿富汗是奥巴马重大外交挑战之一

　 
One of the first foreign policy challenges facing the Obama administration will be how to proceed with the war in Afghanistan. Three former senior U.S. government officials talk about the situation in Afghanistan: Former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger; former Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger and former National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft.

奥巴马政府所要面对的最重大的外交挑战之一，就是如何进行在阿富汗的战争。记者就阿富汗局势问题，访问了3位前美国政府高级官员。

The United States has 32,000 troops in Afghanistan. 18,000 are part of "Operation Enduring Freedom" - the multinational coalition that ousted the Taliban from power in 2001. Those forces are now engaged in counter terrorism operations.

美国目前在阿富汗驻军3万2千人，其中1万8千人是属于“持久自由行动”的一部分。这个由多国部队组成的联盟于2001年将阿富汗塔利班政权赶下台。这些部队目前在阿富汗从事对抗恐怖主义的任务。

The rest of the U.S. contingent - 14,000 men and women - is part of the 50,000 strong force led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO has been operating in Afghanistan since 2003. Its objectives are to assist the Afghan government to rebuild and stabilize the country, train the Afghan army and police and fight insurgents in southern Afghanistan, the traditional home of the Taliban.

其余大约1万4千名美国驻军，则属于北约组织所领导的5万名部队的一部分。北约自2003年起就在阿富汗开展任务。它的主要目标是协助阿富汗政府重建并稳定这个国家，训练阿富汗的军队和警察，并且对抗阿富汗南部的叛乱。阿富汗南部是塔利班传统的根据地。

Now U.S. military officials say the United States may double the number of troops it has in Afghanistan next year. Those troops will join the NATO force in fighting a rising Taliban insurgency.

现在，美国军事官员表示，美国也许会在明年将阿富汗驻军增加一倍。

The ultimate decision on deployments to Afghanistan will be taken by President-elect Barack Obama after his inauguration January 20. During the presidential campaign, he said he would redeploy troops from Iraq to Afghanistan.

在阿富汗部署更多军队的最后决定，将由总统当选人奥巴马在1月20号就任后做出。在竞选总统时，奥巴马曾经表示，他将重新把军队从伊拉克部署到阿富汗。

Lawrence Eagleburger

Former Secretary of State [1992] Lawrence Eagleburger said that is a bad idea.

曾经在1992年短暂担任国务卿的伊格尔伯格表示，这是一个坏主意。

"I find it difficult to conceive of a policy that withdraws from Iraq and increases our troops in Afghanistan. I agree with the second half of this proposal. But it doesn't seem to me to make a great deal of sense to be pulling them out of an area in which we are now on the path to success, at the same time that we are putting troops in Afghanistan. Frankly, I think the answer is continue what we are doing in Iraq and yes, increase our troop levels in Afghanistan and try to get other countries to contribute," said Eagleburger.

他说：“我无法想象从伊拉克撤军去增加阿富汗驻军这样一种政策。我同意这个政策的第二部分。但是我认为不合理的是，把我们的军队从正在迈向成功的地区撤出，与此同时把他们送进阿富汗。显然，我认为答案应该是继续我们目前在伊拉克所做的，同时增加我们在阿富汗的驻军水平，并且要求其他国家也做出贡献。”

Mr. Obama has consistently said he would press other NATO countries - especially Germany - to contribute more troops to the war in Afghanistan.

奥巴马曾一再表示，他将向其他北约国家，特别是德国施压，要它们为阿富汗战争提供更多军队。

James Schlesinger

But Eagleburger and others - including former Secretary of Defense [1973-75] James Schlesinger - believe that will not happen.

但是伊格尔伯格和其他人，包括于1973年到1975年期间担任国防部长的施莱辛格都认为，这不可能实现。

"The expectation that NATO will actually do its part, which to the Americans means send more forces, is likely to be disappointed and is likely, over time, to add to ill feelings," said Schlesinger.

施莱辛格说：“这项对北约的期待，实际上对美国人而言，就是派出更多的部队，其结果可能会令人失望，而且随着时间的推移，会加大不愉快的感觉 。”

Many experts, including Schlesinger, said ultimately, there is no military solution in Afghanistan.

许多专家，包括施莱辛格都表示，最终来说，阿富汗问题没有军事解决的办法。

"The situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate. It is not clear that simply sending in more forces is going to reverse that," he said.

他说：“阿富汗的局势在持续恶化。目前不清楚的是，仅仅增派军队会不会扭转这个趋势。”

Brent Scowcroft

Former White House National Security Adviser [1974-77; 1989-93] Brent Scowcroft agreed.

曾经在1989年到1993年期间担任白宫国家安全顾问的斯考克罗夫特同意这个观点。

"We need to realize that Afghanistan is not Iraq and my own sense is that there is no military solution for Afghanistan. The Russians had well over 150,000 troops there as I remember - and they were unsuccessful," he said.

他说：“我们需要认识的是，阿富汗不是伊拉克，我个人的感觉是，阿富汗没有军事解决的办法。我记得前苏联曾经派了超过15万大军到那里，结果并没有成功。”

The three former senior U.S. government officials believe the international community must increase its efforts in helping the Afghan government set up stable government institutions.

这3位前美国政府高级官员相信，国际社会必须加强努力，协助阿富汗政府建立稳定的政府机构。

Brent Scowcroft said that's where the Europeans can help.

斯考克罗夫特表示，这是欧洲人可以帮忙的地方。

"What the Europeans can contribute, and what's badly needed in Afghanistan, is help on the civil side. The European Union is very skilled in - like the new members of the European Union - helping governments modernize, helping them put in judicial systems, administrative systems. That's what Afghanistan badly needs. And the Europeans can make a disproportionate contribution there to make up for their less than wholehearted military contribution," he said.

他说：“欧洲人能够贡献的地方，阿富汗最需要的地方，就是在非军事方面协助他们。欧洲联盟非常擅长，就好像对待欧洲联盟新的成员国一样，协助政府的现代化，协助建立司法体系，协助建立行政体系。这些都是阿富汗亟需的。而欧洲人可以在这方面做出更大的贡献，以弥补他们在军事贡献上的不热心。”

Scowcroft, Eagleburger and Schlesinger agreed that the path to a stable and secure Afghanistan lies through economic development, good governance and the rule of law. But all of that can only be achieved with considerable help from the international community.

斯考克罗夫特、伊格尔伯格和施莱辛格都同意，阿富汗通往稳定和安全的道路依赖经济发展，良好的管理，以及法治。而所有这些只有得到国际社会的巨大援助，才能够实现。