Little Optimism For Crucial Zimbabwe Negotiations
津巴布韦三党谈判成败事关重大

　
Negotiators from Zimbabwe's three political parties are meeting in South Africa to try to reach agreement on an amendment to the constitution that would enable the formation of a government of national unity. In the streets of the capital many people are aware that this is a crucial make or break round of negotiations.

津巴布韦三个政党的谈判人员正会集在南非，试图就一项宪法修正案达成协议，该修正案将使全国团结政府得以组成。首都哈拉雷的街上有许多人都认识到这次谈判是成败的关键。

In Harare's streets, many people know that a constitutional amendment is necessary to enable formation of a government of national unity. If it is agreed upon, MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai will become prime minister of Zimbabwe.

在哈拉雷的街上，许多人知道，需要有一项宪法修正案才能组成全国团结政府。如果达成有关协议，那么争取民主变革运动主席茨万吉拉伊就将成为津巴布韦总理。

Negotiators in South Africa are faced with two amendments, one written by the ministry of justice and one by Mr. Tsvangirai's MDC.

在南非的谈判人员面临两项修正案，一项是司法部拟写的，另一项是茨万吉拉伊的争取民主变革运动拟写的。

The two are very different and this gap, analysts say, will be difficult to overcome, as the amendment has to accurately cover the Global Political Agreement signed on September 15 by leaders of the three parliamentary parties, Mr. Mugabe, Mr. Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara.

这两项修正案大不相同，分析人士说，将很难克服它们之间的分歧，因为有关修正案必须确切地涵盖“全球政治协议”，这项协议是议会三党领导人，即穆加贝、茨万吉拉伊和穆坦巴拉在九月十五号签署的。

Lawyers say that the 37-page MDC document is a well crafted piece of legislation which widens the democratic scope of the agreement, and addresses many of its imperfections.

律师说，长达37页的争取民主变革运动的文件是精心制定的一项立法，它扩大了有关协议的民主范畴，并且弥补了有关协议存在的许多不足之处。

But they warn, some of the clauses, particularly those involving human rights, were not agreed by President Robert Mugabe during negotiations, and, therefore are likely to be rejected again by Mr. Mugabe's negotiators.

但是他们警告说，某些语句，尤其是涉及人权的言辞，在谈判中可能得不到穆加贝总统的赞同。所以穆加贝的谈判人员很可能会再次拒绝接受这一文件。

In the streets of Harare, many people say they know these negotiations are crucial.

哈拉雷的街道上，许多人说，他们知道这些谈判至关重要。

One professional man said while these negotiations represent hope, if the talks fail he believes the MDC will have to become more militant.

一位专业人士说，虽然这些谈判代表着希望，但是如果谈判失败，那么他认为争取民主变革运动将不得不采取更为激进的路线。

"The next round of talks is a ray of light of hope to the ordinary Zimbabwean," he said. "This comes back to the core principles of the MDC of narrowing their options of removing the dictator through democratic means. Mugabe knows he cannot go it alone."

他说：“下一轮谈判对于津巴布韦平民百姓是一线希望的光芒。它返回到争取民主变革运动的核心原则，即缩小他们通过民主手段罢免独裁者的选择余地。穆加贝明白他不能一意孤行。”

"The people are frustrated. They have been stretched to the limit. It needs a stimuli to put light into the frustrations of the people and that stimuli can only come about by the people in the MDC presidium to mobilize the people, in the bank queues everywhere, the people are ripe for change," he added.

“人民极度失望。他们已经被压榨到了极限。需要有一种给陷于绝望的人民带来光明的刺激因素，而产生那种刺激因素的唯一途径是通过争取民主变革运动的领导人来调动民众，津巴布韦各地银行前都有人排成长队，民众要求变革的时机已经刻不容缓。”

A clerk at a security company said that these talks were crucial Zimbabweans.

一家证券公司的雇员说，这些谈判对津巴布韦人至关重要。

"I think this should be the last round of talks, and if they are not going to agree upon that amendment, then I don't think that it will be of any use to have any other talks," the clerk said.

她说：“我认为这该是最后一轮谈判了，如果他们不能就有关修正案达成一致的话，那么我认为再举行谈判也是徒劳无益的了。”

She was gloomy about the future should the talks on the amendment fail and said Zimbabweans would then have to wait until Mr. Mugabe, who is nearly 85, died.

她认为，如果这次谈判失败，则前景暗淡，她说津巴布韦人到时候只能等待现年八十五岁的穆加贝去世了。

"It means we are going to suffer more than we are suffering right now if the UN is not going to do anything. If nature doesn't take its course we are going to die," she said. "We don't want to die and we don't want to fight anyone. Because we thought that he was going to listen to reason on his own, and now we don't know what to do."

她说：“那意味着如果联合国袖手旁观的话，我们就将比现在受更大的苦。如果自然不按照规律行事的话，那么我们会比他早死。我们不想死，而且我们也不想再斗争了。因为我们认为穆加贝只会独断独行，听不进他人意见。所以我们现在感到束手无策。”

If these talks fail to produce a constitutional amendment there will then be no basis for establishing a government of national unity.

如果这些谈判不能产生一项宪法修正案，那就没有组成全国团结政府的基础。

As a result, several people said they may have to go to war to end Mr. Mugabe's rule.

有几个人说，结果他们可能不得不为了推翻穆加贝的统治而打一场仗。

A street vendor selling vouchers for mobile phones said people would have to change tactics and fight for a new government.

一个在街上卖手机卡的小贩说，人们可能必须改变策略，要为组成新政府而斗争。

"People are dying and the issue of having another round of talks should come to an end and so many people are complaining about the credibility of the talks," the vendor noted. "Mugabe needs a militant approach if he fails the dialogue. The suffering and the crisis in Zimbabwe is unprecedented. This must come to an end as soon as possible."

MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa cautioned against any optimism about the outcome of the talks until all the party's demands were met.

争取民主变革运动的发言人沙米撒提醒人们，在本党的一切要求尚未得到满足之前，不要对这次谈判的结果盲目乐观。

If the talks fail, no one is sure what the next step will be. If they succeed then Mr. Tsvangirai will be sworn into office. The amendment will be presented before parliament a month later where it will voted on. A two-thirds majority is needed in the parliament for a transitional government of national unity to be a reality.

如果这次谈判失败，谁也不知道下一步将发生什么。如果这轮谈判成功，那么茨万吉拉伊将宣誓就任总理。有关修正案将在一个月后被呈交议会进行表决。需要有议会中三分之二的多数才能真正建立全国团结政府的过渡政府。