Houston Weathers US Financial Crisis
信贷紧缩经济放缓使休斯敦人担心

　 
The sub-prime mortgage collapse that led to the current U.S. financial crisis has not had as deep an impact in the middle of the nation as it has had on the east and west coasts. But economists say a credit crunch will affect all regions of the country. Even an economy buoyed by a booming energy sector is not immune.

次级房贷市场的崩溃导致了美国目前的金融危机，不过这次崩溃在美国中部地区的影响力没有在东岸和西岸那样大。但是，经济学家说，信贷紧缩会给全国各地带来影响，即使在能源业蓬勃发展的地区也不例外。

When housing prices soared in other areas of the country, cities like Houston, Texas saw only modest increases. So when prices went into steep declines elsewhere, people here did not worry. But tightening credit overall is having an impact.

在美国其它地方房价飞涨时，像德克萨斯州的休斯敦这样的城市房价只有小幅上涨。当别的地方房价暴跌的时候，休斯敦的人并不担心。不过，整体上的信贷紧缩还是在产生影响。

Some builders have shut down because they cannot get the financing they need to proceed with developments. The situation worries small business owners like Linda Heckman, who runs a gift shop in a Houston suburb.

一些建筑公司关门大吉，因为它们无法得到继续进行开发项目所需的资金。这种形势使休斯敦郊外一个礼品店的小店主赫克曼忧心。

"I use my credit card to buy merchandise for the store," she said. "If I cannot do that, then I cannot buy merchandise for the store."

她说：“我用信用卡为店里购置商品。如果我不这样做，就进不了货。”

She says an economic slowdown would also affect her customers and reduce her sales. She says she hopes Congress will act soon to restore confidence in the system.

她说，经济发展放缓也会影响她的客人，减少她店里的销量。她说，她希望国会能赶快采取行动，恢复人们对财经系统的信心。

One person keeping a careful watch on the situation is Barton Smith, a University of Houston economist who provides economic forecasts for the city.

休斯敦大学的经济学家史密斯正在密切关注目前的局势，他对休斯敦的经济前景进行了预测。

"Home prices in Houston are essentially flat," he said. "That is a lot better than being down 15 to 20 percent, like many urban areas in the United States. So we are doing better, but we are not totally immune. We are already seeing increasing reports of businesses in Houston that are having a hard time maintaining their lines of credit just to continue to do business."

Smith says the soaring price of oil in recent years, which helped slow the nation's economy overall, has so far had a positive effect in Houston where many oil and gas companies, as well as energy services companies, are located.

他说，最近几年里原油价格猛涨虽然减慢了美国整体经济的发展速度，但是到目前为止给休斯敦带来了积极影响，因为休斯敦有很多石油和天然气公司以及能源服务公司。

"Energy is what is keeping our head above water and allowing us to continue to grow while a lot of the rest of the nation is suffering job losses," he said. "But if the problem gets worse and spreads more rapidly through the global economy, then it is going to continue to put significant downward pressure on oil."

他说：“能源是我们的救命稻草，它让我们在全国其它地方出现失业问题的时候依然能够保持经济的增长。不过，如果问题恶化并更快地向全球经济体系蔓延的话，那么它就会接著给石油业带来巨大的下降压力。”

The price of a barrel of oil has dropped about $40 in the past few months, although it is still more than double what it was just a few years ago. But a prolonged economic slowdown could reduce demand for energy and the price of oil.

在过去几个月中，原油价格已经下跌了大约40美元，不过和几年前相比，油价仍然增长了一倍以上。但是，长期的经济低迷可能会减少对能源的需求，并导致油价的下跌。

Rice University economist Barbara Ostdiek says that could hurt Houston.

莱斯大学的经济学家奥斯迪克说，这可能会伤害到休斯敦。

"If a slowdown in the global economy pulls down the price of oil then, certainly, you would expect that to have an effect on the Houston economy," she said. "Now, that does not mean it is devastating."

她说：“如果全球经济放缓导致油价下跌，那么，当然，这会给休斯敦经济带来影响。不过目前这种影响还不具有破坏性。”

Ostdiek says the energy industry is likely to remain strong here even, if there is a drop in oil prices. But, she says, a global recession that drove down demand in fast-growing nations like India and China could put even greater downward pressure on prices for most commodities - including oil.

阿斯提克说，即使油价下跌，休斯敦的能源业也可能会保持兴旺的势头。不过，她说，全球经济衰退将减少印度和中国等快速发展国家对能源的需求，这可能给包括原油在内的许多商品带来更大的降价压力。

"As China and India sort of shudder in the wake of our current financial crisis, there is concern about their export-driven economies, particularly in China, and the extent that they are driven by the ability to sell products into our market," she said. "So the commodity prices are reflecting not only that slowdown in our demand, but also the slowdown in what have been very rapidly growing economies."

她说：“由于美国目前的金融危机影响了中国和印度，人们为这种出口型经济感到担忧，特别是中国。人们还担心这些经济体的发展在多大程度上是由它们向美国市场的出口能力推动的。因此，商品价格不仅反映了美国需求的降低，也反映了这些快速增长经济体发展速度的减慢。”

In a sense, Barbara Ostdiek says, the problem of easy money and easy credit is coming full circle, since it was foreign countries, like China, that bought many of the financial instruments produced in the United States and thereby kept the freewheeling system going.

奥斯迪克说，从某种意义上讲，宽松信贷的问题是一个因果循环。正因为像中国之类的国家曾购买美国推出的许多金融工具，才使得这个放任自流的金融系统得以运转。

"For a while, we were able to consume beyond our means and it was essentially funded by the rest of the world," said Ostdiek. "What we are seeing now may be a not too pleasant, but a necessary, adjustment of these huge global imbalances."

For that reason, Ostdiek is among the many economists in the country who favor government action that is carefully crafted to shore up confidence in banks and the credit system. Although she says Congress needs to act soon, she maintains there is enough time to develop a plan that will work without putting taxpayer money at great risk.

基于这个原因，奥斯迪克和许多美国经济学家支持政府采取慎重行动巩固银行和信贷系统的信誉。虽然她说国会需要快速行动，但她同时认为，有足够的时间来制定一项既有效又不会令纳税人的钱面临巨大风险的计划。

Barton Smith agrees:

"It is important that we find a solution, but it is also important that we find the right solution," he said. "And I am not sure that the Paulson plan, even with all the various Band-Aids [bandages] that have been put on it, is the correct solution."