Experts Say Economic Downturn Could Spread to Developing Countries
发达国家不景气或危及发展中国家

　 
A new report warns the gloomy economic outlook for rich nations could spread and halt the recent boom in developing countries, if commodity prices plunge. The annual Trade and Development Report by the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development or UNCTAD, sees a great deal of uncertainly and instability in international financial markets.

一份新的报告警告说，如果大宗商品价格大幅度下跌的话，发达国家的经济不景气可能会进一步扩散并导致发展中国家的经济增长陷于停顿。联合国贸易和发展会议发表的年度贸易和发展报告指出，国际金融市场仍然面临诸多不确定和不稳定因素。

By the middle of this year, the report notes some economies had gone into recession while others were on the brink of recession. UNCTAD Secretary-General, Supachai Panitchpakdi, says this depressing state of affairs comes after four years of relatively strong growth.

联合国贸易和发展会议的年度报告指出，到今年中期，一些经济体已经陷入衰退，其它国家则处于衰退边缘。联合国贸发会议秘书长素帕猜说，不景气的经济现状发生在四年的相对强劲增长过后。

He says a combination of factors have conspired to create this unfortunate economic downturn.

他说，一系列因素交织，形成了目前令人遗憾的经济下行。

"First, it is a slowdown from the global fall-down from the financial crisis in the U.S. Second, the bursting of housing bubbles in the U.S. and in other large economies. Third, soaring commodity prices," Supachai said. "Fourth, increasingly restrictive monetary policies in a number of countries and fifth, stock market volatility."
All these factors, says Supachai, have had a hand in squelching economic growth.

他说：“首先，美国金融市场的危机诱发全球性的增长减速；其次，美国和其他经济发达国家出现了房地产泡沫破灭；第三，商品价格飞涨；第四，一系列国家采取了紧缩性货币政策；最后，股市剧烈震荡。” 素帕猜说，所有这些因素都抑制了经济增长。

UNCTAD expects world output to grow by around three percent this year. That is almost one percentage point less than in 2007. In the developed countries, the report says GDP growth is likely to be around one-and-one half percent.

联合国贸发会议预计全球产出今年增长大约3%，将比2007年降低一个百分点。报告说，在发达国家，国内总产值可能增长大约1.5%。

Supachai says the short-term outlook is better for the developing world, where growth could exceed six percent. This, as the result of domestic demand in some countries and because of commodity price hikes.

素帕猜说，发展中世界的短期经济展望比较乐观一些，估计增长率将会超过6%，主要原因是部分发展中国家内需强劲以及大宗商品价格上涨。

He points to the Sub-Saharan economy as a particular bright spot.

素帕猜指出，非洲萨哈拉沙漠以南地区的经济增长格外引人注目。

"This year, it is probably the only region that will be seeing a rising rate of economic growth which might reach seven percent," Supachai said. "This is probably one of the largest growth rates ever seen in the Sub-Saharan economies. But, the sad fact is that this is mainly attributable to the effects of the income from commodity exports, mainly oil."

他说：“今年，这里很可能成为唯一一个经济增长超过百分之7的地区。这也是萨哈拉沙漠以南地区经历的最快速的经济增长。但是，比较遗憾的是，这种增长主要是由于包括石油在内的大宗商品出口创收的结果。”

Supachai cautions this healthy growth in Africa is unlikely to do much to reduce poverty. He says little of the income from oil, the mining and extractive sectors trickle down to the poor.

素帕猜警告说，非洲地区的强劲增长不太可能有效地减少贫困。他说，石油和矿产资源出口带来的收入很少惠及穷人。

And, he warns fallout from the recession in rich countries and overly restrictive monetary policies in countries with high inflation could lead to a further deceleration of growth in developing nations.

素帕猜还表示，在发达国家陷入经济衰退和高通胀国家收紧货币政策的影响下，发展中国家的增长可能会被进一步抑制。

UNCTAD economists say greater diversification and industrial development is the best long-term strategy for reducing vulnerability to commodity price shocks.

联合国贸发会议的经济学家指出，经济多元化和工业发展是应对大宗商品价格剧烈波动的最佳长期战略。

They find speculative swings in the commodity market pose a real threat to the global economy, as has been shown in the wild fluctuation in the price of oil. They recommend stricter regulations in the system of global finance to better control speculative movements.

这些经济学家发现，跟石油价格剧烈波动造成的后果相似，商品市场的投机风潮也对全球经济构成非常现实的威胁。他们建议在全球金融系统采取更为严格的监管措施以控制投机行为。