Could Ukraine Become Russia's Next Target?
俄会对乌克兰支持格鲁吉亚报复？

The former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine are allies engaged in similar attempts to establish democratic rule, to join NATO and realign themselves with the West, much to the displeasure of Russia. During the conflict in Georgia, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko prohibited ships from the Russian Black Sea Fleet that are engaged off the Georgian coast from returning to port on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula without Kyiv's official permission. How the Kremlin may react to Ukraine's pro-Georgian and pro-Western position.

格鲁吉亚和乌克兰都是从前苏联独立出来的共和国。这两个国家都在努力建立民主体制、加入北约组织，并同西方国家结盟。它们之间是盟友，也同是俄罗斯反对的对象。在格鲁吉亚最近发生的冲突当中，乌克兰总统尤先科决定禁止在格鲁吉亚海岸附近执行任务的俄罗斯黑海舰队在未经乌克兰官方允许的情况下返回位于乌克兰克里米亚半岛的港口。俄罗斯将会对乌克兰支持格鲁吉亚和西方国家的立场做出什么反应？

In 2007, Public School Number 41 in Tbilisi was named after Mykhailo Hrushevsky, president of the short-lived Ukrainian People's Republic in 1917 and 1918.

2007年，格鲁吉亚首都第比利斯的一所公立小学被正式命名为米哈伊罗.胡舍夫斯基小学。胡舍夫斯基是1917到1918乌克兰人民共和国期间的总统。

Ukraine's current President, Viktor Yushchenko flew to Tbilisi to join his Georgian friend and fellow head of state, Mikheil Saakashvili, in the school's re-dedication ceremony. Both men rode to power following mass pro-democracy protests that came to be known as colored revolutions. Georgia's was the Rose Revolution and Ukraine's was the Orange. Accordingly, the Hrushevsky School was painted orange.

乌克兰现任总统尤先科特地飞到第比利斯，同他的友人、格鲁吉亚的总统萨卡什维利一道，出席了学校的命名仪式。他们两人都是在被称为颜色革命的民主抗争的过程中成为总统的。格鲁吉亚是“玫瑰革命”，而乌克兰则是“橙色革命”。胡舍夫斯基小学，自然而然地，被刷成桔黄色。

Moscow has not disguised its displeasure with the colored revolutions and refuses to deal with Mr. Saakashvili. On Tuesday, President Yushchenko again flew to Tbilisi, accompanied this time by the presidents of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

莫斯科方面一直没有掩盖对橙色革命和玫瑰革命的不满，并且拒绝与萨卡什维利打交道。上个星期二，尤先科总统再次飞抵第比利斯；这一次，与他同行的还有波兰、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和爱沙尼亚四国的总统。

Mr. Yushchenko says the task of the presidential mission is to show that Georgia is not alone, that in this age the power of reason should not be replaced by the iron fist.

尤先科总统说：“我们此行的目的是要向全世界表明，格鲁吉亚并不孤独，而且在当今世界，理性不应被强权所取代。”

The Ukrainian leader says the five presidents came to Georgia to prohibit the of killing people and the execution of the country.

这位乌克兰领导人还表示，他们到格鲁吉亚的目的，是为了制止屠杀民众、侵犯别国领土的行为。

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksiy Melnyk, of the Razumkov Center think tank in Kyiv, told VOA the Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic leaders do not necessarily agree with all of the actions undertaken in the conflict by Georgian leadership, but notes they risked their own physical security to send a signal to Moscow.

位于基辅的乌克兰智囊机构拉祖姆科夫中心的军事分析家奥列克西.梅利尼克说，波兰、乌克兰和波罗的海地区的领导人并不见得对格鲁吉亚领导人在这次冲突中所采取的所有行动都表示赞同。但是他说，但是他们甘冒自身的风险向俄罗斯传递出一个信号。

Melnyk says Moscow should see the presidential show of solidarity in Tbilisi as a serious signal that Russian foreign policy of establishing control over former Soviet republics and its neighborhood achieves a totally opposite effect. The analyst says Russia is surrounding itself with nations that are, at a minimum, not friendly and perhaps even hostile toward Moscow.

梅利尼克说：“莫斯科应该看到这些总统站在第比利斯一方所表现出的团结，是对俄罗斯想对前苏联共和国和它的邻国进行控制而导致完全相反的效果所发出的一个严肃的信号。这个分析者说，俄罗斯被围在对莫斯科至少不友好，或者甚至是敌视的国家当中。”

Oleksiy Melnyk says Russian military actions in Georgia could lead the majority of Ukrainians who now oppose to their country's NATO membership to reassess their opinions about the respective security threats posed by the Western alliance and Russia.

The chairman of the European Integration Forum in Tbilisi, Soso Tsiskarishvili, agrees with Melnyk's assessment, but notes Ukraine is better prepared to meets NATO's democratic standards for membership than Georgia.

第比利斯欧洲一体化论坛主席索索.齐斯卡里什维利同意梅利尼克的看法。但是他表示，乌克兰在加入北约所要达到的民主标准方面，比格鲁吉亚做得要好。

Tsiskarishvili says Ukraine's two recent parliamentary elections and Georgia's presidential and parliamentary contests differ from one another like heaven and earth in terms of democratic and transparent procedures.

齐斯卡里什维利说：“从民主化和透明化的过程来看，乌克兰最近两次议会选举和格鲁吉亚的总统及议会选举有着天壤之别。”

But Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer cautions that Ukraine could be Russia's next target as part of what he says is a grand Kremlin plan for the partial restoration of Russian greatness.

但是俄罗斯军事分析家帕韦尔.费尔根豪尔警告说，乌克兰可能成为他所说的克里姆林宫部分恢复大俄罗斯这样一个宏大计划的下一个目标。

"Russia right now wants at least half of Ukraine to be annexed," said Felgenhauer. "Vladimir Putin talked about that rather openly at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania in April. Ukraine will disintegrate into two halves, and we want the eastern half, including of course, first and foremost, Crimea."

费尔根豪尔说：“俄罗斯现在希望至少兼并乌克兰的一半。普京今年4月在罗马尼亚首都布加勒斯特举行的北约高峰会议上相当公开地谈到了这点。乌克兰将会解体成为两部分，我们希望得到乌克兰东部部分，这当然首先包括克里米亚。”

Felgenhauer says Ukraine's overwhelming vote for independence in 1991, which included a majority of Crimeans, means nothing to Kremlin rulers, who the analyst says do not respect the will of even their own people.

费尔根豪尔说，包括多数克里米亚人在内的乌克兰绝大多数人1991年投票赞成独立，这对克里姆林宫的统治者毫无意义。分析人士说，克里姆林宫的统治者连自己人民的意愿都不尊重。

Nonetheless, the analyst says Russia is tied down in Georgia and will not make any immediate military moves against Ukraine. He notes, however, that Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which leases naval facilities in Sevastopol in Crimea, will likely steam back to port in defiance of a Ukrainian presidential order that it must first ask for Ukrainian permission.

尽管如此，分析人士说，俄罗斯被牵制在格鲁吉亚，不会立即对乌克兰采取军事行动。他说，租用克里米亚半岛塞瓦斯托波尔海军基地的俄罗斯黑海舰队却可能不顾乌克兰总统的命令返回基地。乌克兰总统要求俄罗斯必须首先征得乌克兰同意才能返回塞瓦斯托波尔海军基地。

"If Russia openly challenges Ukrainian sovereignty, I think that Ukraine will then turn to the West and say, 'you know guys, they're challenging our sovereignty with their fleet.' And this will happen without any kind of use of arms, or anything made in anger. Ukraine right now, apparently wants to make the threat to its sovereignty obvious to outside powers," said Felgenhauer.

费尔根豪尔说：“如果俄罗斯公开对乌克兰主权提出挑战，我认为乌克兰就会对西方说，‘你们知道吗，他们正在用他们的舰队挑战我们的主权’。这不用使用任何武器或者对任何事情造成威胁就会发生。乌克兰现在显然希望将主权面临的威胁清楚地展现在国际社会面前。”

Felgenhauer says Moscow's vision of the world is that of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin; one in which Russia and Washington share spheres of influence. The analyst notes that Russia withdrew its bases from Cuba and Vietnam, expecting the United States to stay away from what Moscow thought was to be its sphere of influence. He says Moscow felt betrayed when Washington began supporting colored revolutions among Russia's neighbors.

费尔根豪尔说，莫斯科对世界的看法就是普京对世界的看法。这个看法就是俄罗斯同美国分享势力范围。分析人士指出，俄罗斯从古巴和越南撤走了军事基地，俄罗斯期待美国也不要插手俄罗斯认为是自己的势力范围。他说，当美国开始支持俄罗斯邻国境内的颜色革命时，莫斯科感到被出卖了。

But Soso Tsiskarishvili points to this week's visit to Tbilisi by presidents of five countries that border Russia as a sign that they do not trust the Kremlin.

但是齐斯卡里什维利指出，俄罗斯5个邻国的总统本星期访问第比利斯表明，他们并不信任俄罗斯。