Experts Say US Voters Withholding Judgment on Obama
美选民意向未决 奥巴马小幅领先

With less than 100 days until the U.S. presidential election on November 4, public opinion polls show most Americans disapprove of the job President Bush is doing and would generally prefer a Democrat to succeed him in the White House next year. But the polls also show that the presumptive Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama, is only slightly ahead of his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain.

距离11月4号美国总统大选只有不到100天了，民意调查显示，多数美国民众对布什总统的工作不满意，希望明年能有一位民主党人来担任下一任总统。不过，民调也显示，几乎肯定会获得民主党提名的总统候选人奥巴马参议员目前只是以微弱优势领先共和党对手麦凯恩参议员。

Three months before Election Day, the presidential race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain appears to be close.

离选举只有三个月了，奥巴马和麦凯恩之间的竞争似乎很激烈。卡伦·鲍曼是美国企业研究所研究公众观点的专家。

"The structure of the race has been remarkably stable all summer," said Karlyn Bowman, who monitors U.S. public opinion at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "In Gallup's national daily tracking [poll] for June and July, Obama has averaged a three percentage point lead over John McCain."

她说：“整个夏天，竞选格局一直非常稳定。根据盖洛普在全国范围内进行的每日民意测验，六、七两个月里，奥巴马平均领先麦凯恩三个百分点。”

But many experts say that three points seems a small lead given polls that show Americans are weary of the Bush administration, increasingly concerned about the economy and generally favor Democratic approaches on many issues.

很多专家认为，美国民众普遍对布什政府感到厌倦、对美国经济日益感到担忧、多数人支持民主党在很多问题上的立场。在这种情况下，三个百分点实际上是很微弱的优势。

Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown says there is one main reason why many voters seem to be holding off in deciding between candidates McCain and Obama.

格林尼匹亚大学负责民调的彼得·布朗恩说，很多民众在麦凯恩和奥巴马之间迟迟不能作出选择，主要是出于这样的原因：

"Candidly, I think this election is about Senator Obama," he said. "And he has a threshold to cross in order to close the sale. He is ahead. We know that. A number of voters are not sure yet whether they want to vote for him. They do not necessarily want to vote against him. In fact, voters want to elect a Democrat. They are just not sure they want Barack Obama."

“坦率地说，我认为这次选举的关键问题是，是否选奥巴马。他必须跨越一个门槛，才能赢得这次选举；他目前领先，这一点大家很清楚。一些选民目前还不确定他们是否要投奥巴马的票。这并不一定意味着他们会投他的反对票。事实上，人们希望选一位民主党人，但是他们还没有最后决定是否要选奥巴马。”

The McCain campaign is doing what it can to raise questions about Obama's experience and leadership capabilities. In effect, McCain is trying to define Obama for voters, and not in a positive way.

与此同时，麦凯恩的竞选班子在尽一切可能，对奥巴马是否有足够的经验和领导能力提出质疑。麦凯恩阵营实际上是在为奥巴马定位，而且不是正面的定位。

It is a tactic that has been effective in recent presidential elections. Democratic candidates Michael Dukakis in 1988 and John Kerry in 2004 were unable to overcome Republican depictions of them as so-called tax and spend liberals from Massachusetts.

Senator McCain has stepped up his attacks on Senator Obama in recent days on a range of issues, from his readiness to be commander in chief to his stand on tax cuts and energy prices.

近几天来，麦凯恩在领导军队的能力、税收政策以及能源价格等问题上，加紧了对奥巴马的攻击。

"Senator Obama says he is going to change Washington, but his solution is to simply make government bigger and raise your taxes to pay for it," he said. "We have been doing that for years, my friends, and it has not worked."

麦凯恩参议员说：“奥巴马参议员说他要改变华盛顿，但是他提出的解决方式只是要让政府机关膨胀，提高税收，来支持庞大的政府。朋友们，这种做法已经实施多年了，可是它根本行不通。”

Polls show voters generally prefer Obama to handle the weakened U.S. economy, but place more trust in McCain to handle the war in Iraq and national security in general.

民调显示，选民们更愿意让奥巴马来管理美国经济，不过在伊拉克以及各种国家安全问题上，他们更信任麦凯恩。

"The question of whether Obama is a suitable commander-in-chief is one which I think voters will continue to mull over the course of the campaign," said Michael Barone, a Washington-based political analyst and author. "He is clearly at a disadvantage to John McCain on this dimension at the moment."

For his part, Senator Obama is trying to depict Senator McCain as someone who would continue the policies of President Bush, mindful of public opinion surveys that strongly suggest Americans are looking for change this election year.

而奥巴马则在把麦凯恩描述成要想继续布什总统的政策。奥巴马认为，民意调查强烈显示，美国人希望这个选举年能带来变化。

In recent speeches, Obama has become more forceful in rejecting McCain's attacks and a television ad that compares Obama's celebrity status with pop culture icons Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.

奥巴马在最近的演讲当中，更强有力地反击了麦凯恩的攻击。麦凯恩阵营在一份电视广告里，把奥巴马在公众心目中的形象说成是和流行歌星布兰妮·斯皮尔斯以及扉闻人物帕丽丝·希尔顿同出一辄。对此，奥巴马予以反击。

"They know their [Republican] ideas are used up, he said. "That is why they are spending all their time talking about me. And that is why they are spending all their time trying to convince you that I am a risky choice. But the real risk is doing the same thing."

他说，“共和党人知道他们已经没有什么新招数了，所以就把全部时间和精力都用来谈论我，把我说成是一个风险系数很大的选择。但是，实际上，维持现行政策才是最大的风险！”

Obama and his supporters had hoped his recent trip to the Middle East and Europe would bolster his credentials in foreign policy and national security issues.

奥巴马阵营本来希望他最近出访中东和欧洲地区能够为他在处理外交政策和国家安全问题的能力方面树立良好的形象。

But Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown says that so far, there is little evidence to suggest that Obama got much of a public relations boost, or bounce, out of his trip.

不过，格林尼匹亚大学的民调专家彼得·布朗恩说，到目前为止，没有证据显示，奥巴马的这次外交之旅，在公关方面有很大收获。

Senator Obama had a good trip by all accounts to the Middle East and Europe," he said. "He met with leaders. They said nice things about him. He drew a huge crowd in Berlin. But he may have been making friends in Berlin, Germany, but he may not be doing as well in Berlin, New Hampshire.

To many experts, the 2008 race is starting to look like the election of 1980 between President Jimmy Carter and his Republican challenger Ronald Reagan.

在很多专家看来，2008年的美国总统大选有点像1980年民主党人卡特和共和党人里根之间的竞争。

Analyst Norman Ornstein says like this year, voters were in a sour mood in 1980 and looking for change, but unsure about putting Reagan in the White House.

分析人士诺尔曼·欧恩斯坦说，像今年一样，1980年的那次选举，人们也是对现状不满，盼望着变革，但是不能确定是否应该让里根入主白宫。

"And I believe fundamentally that in 1980, the election was all about Ronald Reagan," he said. "People did not want another four years of Jimmy Carter. But they were not clear or comfortable for much of the way with whether Reagan got over the bar of acceptability to be commander in chief and president of the United States."

欧恩斯坦说，“我认为，1980年的选举，归根到底，是要不要选里根。人们不希望卡特再执政四年，不过人们对里根是否能够胜任三军司令和美国总统一职，也有很多顾虑。”

Could 2008 be a repeat of 1980? Public opinion analyst Karlyn Bowman says we should have a better idea after the major party political conventions in late August and early September.

2008年的总统大选会不会是1980年大选的重演呢？美国企业研究所的鲍曼女士说，等到民主党和共和党八月底、九月初的提名大会之后，局势将进一步明朗。

"The last time we had an open contest, in 2000, around 60 percent of those surveyed by the University of Michigan said that they made up their minds at [during] the convention or after it," she said. "Of the candidate's supporters, one quarter still say that they could change their minds. So stay tuned."

她说，“上一次、也就是2000年大选，在竞争结果不明朗的情况下，接受密西根大学民调的选民当中，大约有60%说，他们是在提名大会期间或者是在那之后，才做出决定的。目前，选民当中，有四分之一的人说，还没有最后决定选谁。所以还要再等等看。”

Experts do seem to agree that Obama does have one advantage over McCain at the moment - Democrats seem much more energized to turn out and vote this year than Republicans.

专家们似乎一致认为，奥巴马目前在一个问题上比麦凯恩要占有优势，那就是，民主党人比共和党人的选举热情更高，因此他们到时候投票可能会更踊跃。