Analysts Say ASEAN Trying to Bridge Burma's Trust Issue With West
分析人士称东盟增添缅与西方互信

　 
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has long had a policy of engaging with Burma, even when many countries have criticized its military government. Now, some regional political analysts credit ASEAN with helping persuade Burma to allow in foreign aid to help victims of Cyclone Nargis. Others criticize the organization for responding too late.

东南亚国家联盟长期以来坚持与缅甸交往的政策，尽管许多国家对缅甸军政府持批评态度。现在，某些该地区的政治分析人士赞扬东盟帮助说服缅甸接受外国援助，来帮助遭受“纳尔吉斯”强热带风暴的灾民，其他人则批评东盟反应过于迟缓。

It took more than two weeks after Cyclone Nargis devastated the Irrawaddy Delta before ASEAN members could persuade Burma to meet to discuss aid for the storm's victims.

伊洛瓦底三角洲地区在遭受纳尔吉斯强热带风暴两个多星期后，东盟成员国才说服缅甸来会面讨论为灾民们提供援助的问题。

The isolated Burmese government up to then had allowed in just a trickle of assistance from neighbors Thailand, Singapore, China and India. It sharply restricted aid and aid workers from the United Nations and Western countries.

在这之前，与世隔绝的缅甸政府只允许其邻国泰国、新加坡、中国和印度提供的少量援助进入缅甸。缅甸对来自联合国和西方国家的援助和救援人员实行了严格的限制。

Mely Caballero-Anthony is an expert on ASEAN at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

安东尼是新加坡拉加拉特纳姆国际学院研究东盟问题的专家。

"One would imagine it took a while for them [Burma's government] to open up and come to the meeting and meet the whole group," said Caballero-Anthony . "The reality on the ground is that Myanmar has been an unwilling player in the ASEAN context. And because of that it had to be take a while for ASEAN to persuade its member to open to international community for humanitarian help."

他说：“有人会这样想：缅甸政府需要一些时间才能开放并和东盟举行会晤。该地区的实际情况是缅甸不愿在东盟成员国中表现出积极的态度。正是出于这个原因，东盟只得花费时间说服缅甸接受国际社会提供的人道主义援助。”

Cyclone Nargis left more than 100,000 people dead or missing, and the United Nations warns that many more could perish from disease and hunger if help remains restricted. At an ASEAN meeting on May 19, Burma agreed to let the group coordinate international relief efforts.

纳尔吉斯强热带风暴造成10万多人死亡或者失踪，联合国警告说，如果缅甸仍然限制援助的话，可能会有更多的人死于疾病和饥饿。缅甸在5月19日召开的一次东盟会议上，同意让东盟配合国际社会的赈灾工作。

That led to a donor's conference Sunday in Rangoon, at which countries pledged $100 million in relief and recovery aid. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who met with Burma's leaders last week, said he believed they would allow in foreign aid workers.

这次东盟会议又促成星期天在仰光召开的一次捐赠国大会。在这次捐助大会上，与会国保证为缅甸赈灾和恢复提供1亿美元的援助资金。联合国秘书长潘基文在上星期会晤了缅甸领导人。他说，他相信，缅甸领导人将会允许外国救援工作者进入缅甸。

While critics hit at its slow response, regional political analysts say ASEAN as a group does not have the capacity to respond to large disasters the way the United Nations does. The organization functions primarily for economic cooperation. Only in 2005, following the Indian Ocean tsunami, did it adopt an agreement obliging members to help one another in natural calamities.

尽管批评人士批评东盟的反应缓慢，但是，一些地方政治分析人士说，东盟作为一个组织，不像联合国那样具备对大规模的自然灾害作出反应的能力。东盟的主要职能是促进经济合作。只是在2005年发生印度洋海啸后，东盟才达成了一项让该组织的成员国在遭受自然灾害侵袭时彼此帮助的协议。

But what ASEAN seems to have, that the West and the United Nations do not, is the ear of Burma's rulers, however reluctantly they listen.

但是，东盟似乎拥有西方国家和联合国所没有的东西，那就是能让缅甸统治者听它的意见，尽管缅甸统治者并不乐意听取东盟的意见。

"Perhaps it's easier for Burma to accept the opinion or to be persuaded by its neighbors rather than the international community," added Caballero-Anthony.

安东尼说：“也许对于缅甸来说，接受其邻国的看法或被其邻国说服，要比让它接受国际社会的看法来得容易。”

Despite tough economic sanctions, Burma has ignored Western pressure for political reforms and the release of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

尽管西方国家对缅甸采取了严格的经济制裁措施，缅甸对它们施加的压力依然是置之不理， 西方社会要求缅甸进行政治改革，并释放被软禁的反对党领导人昂山素季。

The military maintains it needs to keep tight control over most segments of society to keep the country from being fractured by ethnic division. Some experts have said the government apparently fears that foreign aid workers might undermine its rule.

缅甸军政府坚持认为，他们必须对缅甸社会的大部分严加管制，以防缅甸因为族裔分歧而分崩离析。一些分析人士认为，缅甸政府显然是担心外国救援工作者可能会瓦解它的统治。

Rodolfo Severino, a former ASEAN secretary-general, the group has played a role in bridging the gap between Burma and Western nations.

前东南亚国家联盟秘书长鲁道夫.塞韦里诺说，东盟在弥合缅甸和西方国家的分歧方面发挥了作用。

"The main outcome of that meeting [in Singapore] was to generate a bit more mutual confidence between Myanmar, its government and the countries are most capable of large-scale assistance," said Severino.

他说：“(在新加坡)的那次会议的主要成果就是在缅甸及其政府和最有能力施行大规模援助的国家之间加添了一些互信。”

Severino says the focus now should be on helping the people of Burma. 1"I think the fact that ASEAN and the United Nations have jointly assumed the lead in this effort would deflate a bit the political content of these exchanges between the Myanmar government and the major donors, indirectly [though] these exchanges may be," added Severino.

塞韦里诺说，现在的工作重点应该是帮助缅甸人民。他说：“我认为东盟和联合国共同主导这次救援努力的事实或多或少会减少缅甸政府和主要救援国之间的政治攻击，尽管这些攻击可能都是间接的。”

Political analysts say persuading Burma on the aid issue is not likely to elicit the same response on political reform. They say ASEAN's engagement policy with Burma has failed to produce credible steps toward democracy.

政治分析人士说，说服缅甸政府在救灾问题上改变立场并不意味着就有可能让缅甸政府在政治改革上作出同样的回应。他们说，东盟对缅甸的交往接触政策并没有产生导致缅甸迈向民主的可信效果。

Days after the cyclone, the government pushed through a referendum on its new constitution, which will continue military control.

在强热带风暴发生后的几天里，缅甸政府依然进行了新宪法的全民公投，新宪法将继续维护军政府的统治。

"It's precisely because of this ineffective constructive engagement that ASEAN proposes, that's why to some extent the government of Burma is playing with them," said William Case, the director of the Southeast Asia Research Center in Hong Kong. "So if you're looking for political change, that's somehow initiated by ASEAN, I think we can forget that."

威廉.凯西是香港东南亚研究中心主任。他说：“正因为东盟提出这种没有建设性效果的接触政策，缅甸政府从某种程度来说，才愿意和他们继续交往。因此，如果你希望能找到似乎是东盟提议的政治变革，我认为我们不必枉费心机。”

Burma joined ASEAN in 1997 - a step that many in Asia hoped would help open up the reclusive country. But since then, military had done little to ease its grip. It continues to imprison hundreds of dissidents and opposition members. And last September, the military crushed large protests over rising fuel prices, imprisoning hundreds more people.

缅甸在1997年加入东盟，很多亚洲人希望，这个举动将有助于闭关自守的缅甸政府开放这个国家。但是，自那以后，军政府几乎没有采取任何行动放宽管制。他们继续将数百名异议人士和反对党成员关押在狱中。去年9月，军政府还镇压了民众为了抗议油价上涨而举行的大规模的示威活动，又有数百人因此被关押。