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Chinese bank regulators are wresting the punchbowl from lenders drunk on off-balance sheet funding. To rehydrate, securities issuance rather than strong green tea, a traditional hangover cure, is required. Some of the palliatives, such as convertible bonds, could be good pick-me-ups for investors too.
中国的银行监管机构正从被表外融资的酒灌醉的银行手中夺下潘趣酒碗。想补充水分的银行需要的是证券发行，而不是传统的醒酒剂——很浓的绿茶。一些权宜之计，如可转债，对投资者来说也可能是不错的提神饮料。
China’s top regulators aim to curtail key shadow banking practices by 2019. Maturity mismatches between off-balance sheet assets and liabilities, as well as implicit guarantees offered on wealth management products backed by risky investments, are among their concerns.
中国最高监管者的目标，是到2019年削减关键的影子银行业务。表外资产与负债之间的期限错配，以及对高风险投资支撑下理财产品的隐性担保，都是让监管者感到担忧的问题。
New rules make it tougher to extend maturities on such products and could force them on to the balance sheet. Credit Suisse thinks such shadowy assets could cause total loans to exceed deposits at Minsheng and Citic Bank. Joint stock banks as a group could see their tier one capital diluted by an average of 51 basis points, causing some to sink towards their regulatory minimum. Larger banks are thought to be more insulated.
新规使得延长此类产品的到期日变得更困难，并可能迫使它们进入资产负债表。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)认为，这些影子资产可能导致民生银行(Minsheng)和中信银行(Citic Bank)贷款总额超过存款总额。股份制银行整体的一级资本(tier one capital)充足率平均可能被稀释掉51个基点，致使某些银行的这一比率逼近监管下限。规模较大的银行据信受此影响将更小。
Even so, the coming years will see a flood of issuance to fortify balance sheets. Just last week, Agricultural Bank of China issued Rmb100bn ($15.8bn) of shares to state investors. Rules prohibit share issuance below book value, which means share prices tend to rally once they have exceeded that level. Investors seem to reason it is better to be diluted than get wiped out in a bank collapse.
即便如此，未来数年，我们仍将看到银行大量发行证券，以加固资产负债表。就在上周，中国农业银行(ABC)向国有投资者发行了1000亿元人民币（合158亿美元）的股票（规则禁止股票发行价低于账面价值，这意味着一旦市净率低于1，股价就会回升）。投资者似乎认为，权益被稀释也要好过在银行倒闭中变得两手空空。
Bonds that convert to stock at a price above book value offer participation in such accelerated gains — and some protection on the downside. Last year Everbright Bank issued Rmb30bn of convertibles. Yields on those bonds are negative, but future issues could yield more, if rates increase and banks crank up borrowing.
以高于帐面价值的价格转换成股票的债券，提供了搭上收益加速这班车的机会——也在一定程度上起到托底的作用。去年，光大银行(Everbright Bank)发行了300亿元人民币的可转债。那些债券的收益是负的，但如果利率上升，各银行加大资金借入，那么未来发行的可转债可能会带来更高的收益。
Equity investors should stick with the biggest banks. Fixed-income aficionados should keep an eye on the market for convertible bonds — and drink only the weakest tea to soothe their jangling nerves.
股票投资者应该坚守大型银行。固定收益产品的狂热爱好者应该关注可转债市场——只喝最淡的茶来舒缓他们紧张的神经。
