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China’s official gauge of manufacturing activity for February suffered its largest drop since 2011, an unexpectedly sharp slowdown that left it near the zero-growth level.
2月份，中国官方衡量制造业活动的指数出现2011年以来最大幅度的下降，制造业活动的放缓幅度之大出乎人们的意料，其扩张近乎为零。
The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics fell to 50.3, down a point from January and the largest fall in more than six years. The fall marked the gauge’s nearest brush with the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction since August 2016.
中国国家统计局公布的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至50.3%，比1月份低了1个百分点，降幅为6年多来最大。此次下降是该指数自2016年8月以来最接近50%枯荣线的一次。
A median forecast from economists polled by Reuters had predicted only a fractional slowdown: none of the 28 forecasts for February had pencilled in a reading below 51 for the gauge, which is based on a survey of larger and predominantly state-run companies.
路透社(Reuters)调查的经济学家给出的预测中值是，该指数只会小幅下降。在对2月份制造业PMI的28个预测当中，没有一个认为该指数会低于51%。该指数是基于对大中型且主要为国有的企业的调查得出的。
China’s statistics bureau on Wednesday attributed the slowdown to the lunar new year holiday, when migrant workers return to their home villages and output typically dips. In 2017 the holiday stretched from the end of January through early February, while this year’s holiday fell entirely in February, making for an unfavourable comparison.
周三，中国国家统计局将此次下降归因于春节假期，其间外出务工人员返乡、产出一般都会下降。2017年的春节假期是从1月底到2月初，而今年的假期完全落在2月份，不利于比较。
However, the downward move was outsized for the usually incremental series, making it the sharpest fall since a 1.4 point drop in late 2011 that pushed the gauge into contractionary territory.
但对近来一般都在逐步上升的该指数来说，此次下降的幅度实在太大，降幅是自2011年底以来最大的。2011年底时该指数下降了1.4个百分点，降入荣枯线下方。
“The lower PMI readings for February may be partly due to Chinese new year, since seasonal adjustments may not fully iron out the impact in year-to-year shifts in the timing of the holiday,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. “But even if we account for such volatility by averaging across the first two months of the year, the data still point to a clear slowdown in early 2018.”
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级中国经济学家朱利安?埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)表示：“春节可能是2月份PMI读数走低的部分原因，因为季节性调整可能无法完全熨平春节假期时间点的年度变化带来的影响。但是，即使我们通过求今年头两个月的均值来计入这种波动，数据仍显示出2018年开年出现明显放缓。”
Betty Wang, senior China economist for ANZ, suggested authorities’ crackdown on heavy polluters “also played an important role in dampening the headline numbers on top of the holiday effect”. But she added that while the drive’s impact on manufacturing activity would probably last for another couple of months, it was unlikely to have an impact on policy direction.
澳新银行(ANZ)高级中国经济学家王蕊(Betty Wang)表示，除了假期的影响，有关部门对严重污染企业的整顿也对推低PMI起到了重要作用。但她同时表示，虽然整顿举措对制造业活动的影响可能还会再持续几个月，但它不可能对政策方向产生影响。
