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Even as US stocks roared higher yesterday in response to the passage of the Senate tax bill, analysts were expressing scepticism about the notion that it will transform an economy already running close to full employment.
昨日，尽管美股因美国参议院通过税改法案大幅走高，但分析师对该法案将让已接近充分就业的美国经济发生改观的观点表示了怀疑。
Kent Smetters, a former Bush administration official who oversees the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said he expected at most a 0.1 percentage point uplift to annual growth rates over the course of 10 years as a result of the legislation. The long-run impact on trend growth would be negligible, he added, as the extra debt amassed as a result of lost revenue weighed down on the economy. “It is not a significant boost,” he said.
宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院预算模型(Penn Wharton Budget Model)主管、前布什政府官员肯特?斯迈特斯(Kent Smetters)表示，他预计该法案的影响是，在未来10年将经济年增长率最多提高0.1个百分点。他接着说，对于趋势增长率的长期影响可以忽略不计，这是因为税收收入减少会导致政府债务增加，令经济承重。“对经济的提振效果不会太大，”他说。
Politically, there is no doubt that the passage of the package is opportune. The US has seen two successive readings of annual GDP growth running at 3 per cent or more and the Atlanta Fed’s model points to 3.5 per cent growth for the final quarter of the year.
在政治上，一揽子税改的通过无疑时机正好。美国已有连续两年国内生产总值(GDP)增速为3%或3%以上，亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Atlanta Fed)的模型预测今年第四季度的增长率将达3.5%。
Assuming the legislation goes through, it will effectively put Republicans in a position to adopt the recovery as their own, pointing to their tax changes as fuel for the continued growth and potentially boosting their prospects in midterm elections next year.
假设该立法获得通过，它实际上将让共和党得以把复苏归结为自己的功劳，声称他们的税改为持续增长提供了动力，并可能提升他们在明年中期选举中的获胜前景。
Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, told the FT before the Senate deal went through that significant tax reform would mean “at the very least the odds of sustaining growth at the 3 per cent level go up enormously”.
在参议院通过税改之前，经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)主席凯文?哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)告诉英国《金融时报》，这次重大税改将意味着，“最起码把增长率维持在3%水平的概率大大提高了”。
But the Republican party will also have to take responsibility for widening deficits, with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projecting that tax and spending legislation currently on the agenda could propel the US back to trillion-dollar deficits as soon as 2019. And the package arguably leaves unaddressed longer-term economic challenges alongside rising public debt, including higher inequality, poor educational outcomes and slowing labour force growth.
但共和党同时也将不得不对赤字扩大负责，美国尽责联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)预测，当前议程中的税收与支出立法可能最早于2019年把美国推回万亿美元赤字的境地。除了不断升高的公共债务，一揽子税改还可以说对于长期经济挑战仍然未作解决，包括不平等程度加剧、教育成效低和劳动力增长缓慢。
The House and Senate now face the difficult task of reconciling their two versions of the legislation, as they dash to get a bill on the president’s desk by the end of the year. But the increasing likelihood of the tax bill becoming law is prompting analysts to boost their growth forecasts for the very short term.
参众两院如今面临着调和它们各自版本法案的艰难任务，它们正力争在年底前把一份法案提交至总统的办公桌。但这项税改法案变成法律的可能性越来越大，促使分析师调高他们的短期经济增长预测。
Alec Phillips, a Goldman Sachs analyst, said the tax revenue reduction was worth about 0.6pc of gross domestic product in 2018 and 1.1pc of GDP in 2019. Looking at how much of this was actually going to be spent, and therefore turned up in extra GDP, it translated into a 0.3 percentage point boost to 2018 GDP and a 0.3 percentage point uplift to 2019 GDP, he said. “After that the size of the tax cut flattens off and starts to decline somewhat, so we don’t estimate any additional uplift to GDP in 2020.”
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师亚历克?菲利普斯(Alec Phillips)表示，减税大致相当于2018年GDP的0.6%，相当于2019年GDP的1.1%。他说，考虑减税部分实际上有多少将被支出、因而变成更多的GDP后，减税将把2018年和2019年的GDP各提升0.3%。“在那之后，减税规模会稳定下来，并或多或少开始减少，所以我们估计它将对2020年的GDP起不到任何推升效果。”
The main benefits being touted by the White House stem from reduced individual tax rates and the slashing of the headline corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 20 per cent, which its economists expect to translate into higher investment and therefore increased wages. President Donald Trump took full credit for the soaring stock market yesterday as he discussed the tax cuts, declaring on Twitter that “jobs are roaring back”.
白宫鼓吹的主要减税好处是个人所得税的下降以及企业税从35%降至20%——白宫经济学家预计这将带来投资增加、从而带来工资增长。昨天，美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在讨论税改时，把股市上涨完全归功于自己，他在Twitter上声称“就业正在强势回归”。
The Senate’s decision to delay the cut in the corporate rate to 2019, while allowing companies to immediately deduct capital investments from 2018, could further induce firms to rush through investments next year, according to Scott Greenberg of the Tax Foundation. He describes the latter effect as a “huge deal” in the short term, although not all analysts expect the big uplift to GDP from the measure that he does.
参议院决定把降低企业税率的时间推后至2019年，同时允许企业从2018年开始在应纳税收入中直接扣除资本投资。美国税收基金会(The Tax Foundation)的斯科特?格林伯格(Scott Greenberg)表示，该决定可能进一步促使企业明年匆匆加大投资。他形容后者在短期内将“收效卓著”，尽管并非所有的分析人士都像他一样认为该措施将大幅提升GDP。
Over the longer term, the tax bill’s effects are more ambiguous. Jason Furman, who chaired Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said higher debt would gradually impose a mounting counterweight on the economy’s performance beyond next year. He said he too would advocate business tax reform, but “I would make sure it is paid for and make sure it does not open up new loopholes”.
从长远来看，税改法案的影响较不明朗。曾任巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)政府白宫经济顾问委员会主席的贾森?弗曼(Jason Furman)表示，债务增加将在明年以后逐渐对经济表现施加日益严重的反作用力。他称自己也主张进行企业税改革，但“我会确保它的资金来源并且确保它不会再制造新漏洞。”
Analysis of previous iterations of the tax overhaul has suggested that the benefits would be skewed to the wealthiest in America, in part because holdings of corporate equities are concentrated in wealthier groups. In 2027, when the individual tax cuts will have expired, more than 60 per cent of the benefits of tax reform would accrue to the top 1 per cent of earners, according to the Tax Policy Center. By that year, taxes would rise modestly for the lowest-income group, change little for middle-income groups, and fall for higher-income groups.
对于此次税改前几版方案的分析表明，好处将向美国最富有群体倾斜，部分是因为企业股份都集中在较富有群体的手中。据税收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)计算，2027年当个税削减到期时，税收改革超过60%的好处将落到收入最高的1%的人身上。到那时候，最低收入群体的税负将略微增加，中等收入群体的税负几乎不变，而较高收入群体的税负将减少。
“I don’t think it is going to be a big benefit and it seriously intensifies the wealth inequality problem,” said Bill Cline, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“我不认为它会带来很大好处，而且它会严重加剧贫富差距问题，”彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的经济学家比尔?克莱恩(Bill Cline)表示。
He said the principal beneficiaries of the package were likely to be holders of corporate shares and the top 1 per cent. The $1tn budget shortfall expected over the coming 10 years as a result of the plan could prompt some lawmakers to argue for cuts to social spending, which could further hurt those who were poorly off, he predicted.
他称，税改的主要受益人可能是持有企业股份的人和最富有的1%的人。他预测，该计划在未来10年预计将造成的1万亿美元预算赤字，可能会促使一些议员主张削减社会支出，这会进一步伤害贫困人口。
