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Zhang Biao, a 32-year-old Chinese entrepreneur, has already thought about where his eight-year old will go to university. “We thought a flat overseas would be a good investment, and our son could use it for sixth form or university in Australia or the UK,” he says.
32岁的中国企业家张标（音译）已经考虑了自己8岁大的儿子要去哪儿念大学。他说：“我们认为在国外买套公寓将是一个很好的投资，而且等我们儿子在澳大利亚或英国念预科(sixth form)或大学时也能用得上。”
Mr Zhang and his wife put an offer down on a A$600,000 (US$460,000) flat in Melbourne in October, only to be told that they were no longer eligible for the 60 per cent loan-to-value mortgage they had applied for. Instead they decided to pay up front for a ￡120,000 flat in the English city of Liverpool.
去年10月，张标夫妇对墨尔本一套价值60万澳元（合46万美元）的公寓给出报价，但被告知他们不再有资格获得此前申请的按揭成数为60%的贷款。于是他们决定提前支付了英国利物浦的一套12万英镑的公寓。
Mr Zhang is one of a growing number of Chinese property investors switching their focus from Australia to other markets as regulators — eager to moderate rapidly rising prices amid fears of a bubble — have increased pressure on banks to curb foreign lending.
越来越多的中国房地产投资者将目光从澳大利亚转向其他市场，张标就是其中一员。在人们担忧澳大利亚出现楼市泡沫之际，急于缓和快速上涨的房价的澳大利亚监管机构加大了对银行的施压，要求银行抑制对外国人放贷。
This month, the Reserve Bank of Australia warned that residential building activity had been 50 per cent higher than long-term averages for two years and there was a risk that “newly completed apartments fail to settle”.
本月，澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)警告说，住宅建筑活动已持续两年比长期平均水平高出50%，且存在“新建住宅无人入住”的风险。
A sharp correction in the property market could tip Australia into its first recession in a quarter of century, analysts warn. Gross domestic product contracted in the third quarter by 0.6 per cent, although most economists expect economic growth should resume in the fourth quarter.
分析师们警告称，房地产市场的大幅调整可能会使澳大利亚陷入25年来首次衰退。澳大利亚去年第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)出现0.6%的负增长，不过大多数经济学家预计去年第四季度的经济增长应该会恢复为正值。
“We believe the [property market] correction will start with settlement problems for low quality apartments,” said broker CLSA in a recent report. “Our worst-case scenario would result in dwelling prices falling in all areas, eventually leading to a recession.”
香港券商里昂证券(CLSA)在近期一份报告中表示：“我们认为澳洲房地产市场的调整将从低档公寓入住问题开始。最糟情况下，这将导致所有地区住宅价格下跌，最终导致经济衰退。”
The boom in foreign property investment has helped the Australian economy to continue growing despite sharp falls in mining investment. In 2014-15 Chinese investors were granted approval to spend A$24.3bn on property, more than three times the value of purchases from the US, the second largest group of foreign investors.
外国人对澳大利亚房地产投资的激增，一直帮助这个国家在矿业投资急剧下降的情况下经济继续增长。2014-15年度，中国投资者获得批准的对澳房地产支出额达到243亿澳元，是第二大外国投资者美国购买额的三倍以上。
The inflow of foreign capital helped push prices up in Sydney and Melbourne, the two biggest cities, by 67 per cent and 47 per cent respectively, over the past four and a half years. Foreign buyers account for one in five apartment sales.
过去四年半时间里，外国资本的流入推动澳大利亚两个最大城市悉尼和墨尔本的房价分别上涨了67%和47%。外国买家占了住宅销售的五分之一。
Now overseas demand is starting to weaken. Over the past two years the proportion of new property sales accounted for by foreign buyers in Australia has fallen from 16.8 per cent to 10.9 per cent.
现在海外需求开始减弱。过去两年中，外国买家在澳大利亚新房销售中所占比例已从16.8%下降到10.9%。
This drop is particularly felt in the apartment market. Building approvals for apartments fell by a fifth in the year to end-December. Unit prices have begun to moderate in Melbourne and Brisbane, edging up by only 1.7 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively last year.
这一下降在公寓市场尤其明显。截至去年12月底的一年里，公寓的兴建批准数量下降了五分之一。墨尔本和布里斯班的单价开始平缓，去年分别仅增长了1.7%和2.3%。
“Chinese buyers are increasingly nervous about Australia because of recent instability in regulation, tax and bank lending rules,” says Esther Yong, co-founder of ACproperty, a Chinese language property portal. “A lot of Chinese who bought apartments off-plan three years ago are now finding it difficult to find finance as Australian banks have blocked lending to foreign buyers.”
中文房地产门户网站“澳洲家园网”(ACproperty)的联合创始人Esther Yong表示：“由于近期监管、税收和银行贷款规则方面的不稳定，中国买家对投资澳大利亚越来越紧张。随着澳大利亚银行阻止对外国买家放贷，许多在三年前买了期房的中国人发现他们现在很难找到贷款。”
The big four Australian banks — NAB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ and Westpac — have all stopped issuing loans to non-resident borrowers with no domestic income. “We have essentially shut down mortgages to non-resident buyers,” Shayne Elliott, ANZ’s chief executive, told the Financial Times.
澳大利亚四大银行——澳大利亚国民银行(NAB)、澳大利亚联邦银行(CBA)、澳新银行(ANZ)和西太平洋银行(Westpac)，均已停止向没有澳大利亚国内收入的非居民借款者发放贷款。澳新银行首席执行官谢恩?埃利奥特(Shayne Elliott)向英国《金融时报》表示：“我们基本已停止向非居民买家发放抵押贷款。”
He said the apartment market in Melbourne was “a little bit concerning” due to the proliferation in the city centre of small apartments, some under 50 square metres in size and with no bedroom windows.
他说墨尔本的公寓市场“有点令人担心”，因为墨尔本市中心小公寓激增，其中部分公寓面积不足50平方米，卧室没有窗户。
The withdrawal of bank financing has forced some property developers to ramp up vendor financing, which can leave buyers exposed if prices then fall.
银行停止放贷迫使一些房地产开发商加大卖方融资，如果房价之后下跌，这可能让买家面临风险。
Meriton, Australia’s biggest apartment builder, offers buyers two-year loans, providing them with some breathing space to find alternative financing.
澳大利亚最大公寓建筑商Meriton为购房者提供两年期贷款，为买家们寻找别的融资提供了一些喘息空间。
“Our loan book has doubled over the last 12 months to about A$120m as the rule changes have left some foreign buyers in limbo,” said James Sialepis, sales director at Meriton, Australia’s biggest apartment builder. Other developers have begun offering discounts and rental guarantees on some properties.
Meriton销售总监詹姆斯?西亚莱皮什(James Sialepis)说：“我们的放贷规模在过去12个月翻了一番，达到1.2亿澳元左右——由于规则改变，一些外国买家陷入困境。”其他开发商已开始对部分房产提供折扣或租赁担保。
Increasingly, Chinese buyers are looking elsewhere. ACproperty recently teamed up with property listing company Listglobally, to launch a Mandarin language housing site called Sodichan.com focused on other international markets.
越来越多的中国买家开始将目光转向其他市场。澳洲家园网最近与提供房地产挂牌出售服务的Listglobally合作，推出专注于其他海外市场的中文房产网站“搜地产”(Sodichan.com)。
“Our agents in China have been asking us to supply them with properties in other countries,” said Ms Yong. She said the UK had become popular after the Brexit vote because the fall in the value of sterling had made it cheaper for Chinese buyers.
Esther Yong说：“我们在中国的代理人一直要求我们向他们提供其他国家的房地产。”她说英国在脱欧公投后开始变火，因为英镑贬值降低了中国买家的购房成本。
But Beijing’s tough new capital controls are making it more difficult to move large amounts of cash out of China. Foreign property investments by Chinese companies plunged by 84 per cent last month, according to the Chinese Ministry for Commerce.
但北京方面新的严格资本管制，加大了大量现金流出中国的难度。根据中国商务部数据，中国企业海外房地产投资在上个月同比暴跌84%。
“For some Chinese buyers who have family connections in Australia, they will continue to buy there. But for others without these specific reasons, they will look at other opportunities,” said Ms Yong.
Esther Yong说：“有些中国买家在澳大利亚有亲戚，他们会继续在那儿买房。但对于没有这些特殊理由的其他人来说，他们会物色其他机会。”
