评论
打印
A record run of declines; its worst performance since last year’s surprise devaluation and eight-year lows plumbed on a near-daily basis.
连续下跌天数创纪录；自去年意外贬值以来的最差表现，几乎一天内猛跌至8年低点。
Whichever way you cut it, China’s currency is having a testing month.
无论从哪说起，本月人民币走势都很考验人。
However, unlike the infamous devaluation ruckus in August 2015, and the turmoil in markets that followed renminbi weakness in January, investors are not panicking this time.
然而，与2015年8月的拙劣贬值闹剧以及今年1月人民币疲软导致的市场动荡不同，这一次投资者并没有恐慌。
At least not yet.
至少目前还没有。
This month the offshore renminbi has lost 2 per cent, taking its drop to 5 per cent so far this year.
本月，离岸人民币跌了2%，使今年迄今的贬值幅度达到5%。
On Monday, the onshore rate touched an eight-year low of Rmb6.8991 against the dollar, while the offshore rate reached Rmb6.9181 — another record.
周一，在岸人民币汇率触及1美元兑6.8991元人民币的8年低点，而离岸汇率达到1美元兑6.9181元人民币，同样创纪录。
What a lot of clients are asking and what a lot of people are worried about is if people begin to think it’s disorderly — that is where it would have a blowback on the global markets, says Mansoor Mohi-udddin, strategist at RBS, who still ranks the renminbi as a top-three risk for global markets.
很多客户都在问的，很多人都在担心的，是人们是否开始认为这次贬值是无序的，那样就会对全球市场造成反冲，苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的策略师曼苏尔.莫希-乌丁(Mansoor Mohi-Uddin)说，他仍把人民币列为威胁全球市场的前三大风险之一。
I don’t think we can dismiss the risk of depreciation becoming more disorderly over time.
我认为我们不能忽视人民币贬值可能变得越来越无序的风险。
One important factor for the calm amid the decline, say investors and strategists, is the market’s comfort with the way China appears to be managing its currency, not against the dollar but against the trade-weighted basket it first detailed last year.
投资者和策略师表示，市场之所以对人民币贬值保持冷静，有一个重要因素是市场对中国表现出的管理人民币的方式——不是瞄准美元，而是以其去年首次详细介绍的贸易加权货币篮子为目标——感到放心。
The renminbi, for example, has lost less against the dollar than almost all its emerging market peers in the fortnight since Donald Trump was elected US president.
例如，在唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)当选为美国总统以来的两周内，人民币对美元的贬值幅度小于几乎所有其他新兴市场货币。
The onshore rate is down 1.5 per cent, while the offshore renminbi, which in theory trades freely and reflects the international views of China, has fallen 1.6 per cent.
在岸人民币下跌了1.5%，而离岸人民币——理论上可以自由交易，其走势反映国际市场对中国的看法——下跌了1.6%。
Only Russia’s rouble, off 0.2 per cent, has fared better against the dollar.
表现比人民币好的只有俄罗斯的卢布，兑美元汇率仅下跌0.2%。
In this context, the renminbi’s persistent weakness appears the mirror image of the dollar’s strength, rather than evidence of domestic economic pressures in China that investors feared in the August 2015 episode and again this January.
在这种大背景下，人民币持续疲软似乎对应着美元强势，而不表明中国国内经济存在压力，那正是2015年8月和今年1月两波贬值中投资者所担心的。
Over the past two weeks the renminbi has, in fact, gained against its basket of currencies even as it has weakened against the greenback.
过去两周中，虽然人民币对美元下跌，对一篮子货币却是上升的。
It’s not perfect science, you see moves which are not always exactly in that direction [implied by the basket], but a stronger dollar is just translating into weak global currencies as well as the renminbi, said Neeraj Seth, head of Asian credit at BlackRock.
这不是精确的科学，你会看到汇率并不总是完全朝（货币篮子所暗示）应有方向移动，但是强势美元正在促成全球货币包括人民币的弱势，贝莱德(BlackRock)亚洲信贷部主管尼拉吉.赛斯(Neeraj Seth)说。
What that means from a practical perspective, is if you get a stronger dollar, you should expect to see a weaker renminbi against the dollar but not necessarily against the trade-weighted basket.
实事求是地说，这意味着如果美元处于升势，你应该预料会看到人民币对美元走弱，但未必会对一篮子贸易加权货币走弱。
Although the renminbi’s volatility has risen, it’s so far mostly in line with moves by other currencies.
虽然人民币的波动率上升，但到目前为止与其他货币的情况大体一致。
One-year implied volatility, a measure of market expectations of how much it could swing, is 8 per cent.
一年期隐含波动率——一项衡量市场对波动幅度预期的指标——为8%。
That’s relatively low in currency terms and well below the peaks of more than 10 per cent touched in January.
这在汇率方面是相对较低的，远低于1月触及的逾10%的峰值。
This is a big contrast to August 2015 — I still remember the jump then from about 3.5 per cent to near 7 per cent, says Ken Hu, Invesco’s chief investment officer for fixed income in Asia-Pacific.
这与2015年8月的情况形成鲜明反差——我仍然记得当时波动率从3.5%跳升至接近7%的水平，景顺(Invesco)亚太区固定收益部首席投资总监胡嘉林(Ken Hu)说：
Since then the market has been expecting the renminbi to have quite similar movements to the Singapore dollar — also a currency pegged to a basket.
从那时起，市场一直预期人民币会走出类似新加坡元的行情——新加坡元也跟一篮子货币挂钩。
The key unknown is Mr Trump, whose protectionist rhetoric and promises were a key part of his election campaign.
关键的未知因素是特朗普，他的保护主义言论和承诺是他的竞选活动的关键部分。
The property mogul has promised to label a currency manipulator on the first day of his administration.
这位地产大亨承诺，他上任第一天就把中国列为汇率操纵国。
That said, the question of trade policies has yet to cross the lips of the president-elect or his advisers since the election.
话虽如此，自大选以后，这位当选总统和他的顾问们尚未提过贸易政策问题。
It is a silence that has given investors some reason to believe he intends to tone down his belligerent campaign talk.
这样的沉默，让投资者有些许理由相信，特朗普打算缓和他在竞选中咄咄逼人的言论。
Indeed, the Trump administration’s initial focus is likely to be on infrastructure and tax cuts, says Derek Halpenny, currency strategist at MUFG.
事实上，三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)的汇率策略师德里克.赫尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)说，特朗普政府最初的重点可能是基建和减税。
That, though, does not mean the president-elect will refrain from citing China as a currency manipulator.
不过，这并不意味着这位当选总统不会把中国列为汇率操纵国。
But what would that mean? It formalises bilateral discussions with China that could ultimately lead to tariffs being put in place, but there is a timeframe for this and it won’t be immediate, Mr Halpenny adds.
但是这意味着什么？这表明美国确定了要与中国展开双边谈判，最终可能导致对中国提高关税，但这是有时间框架的，不会是立即实施，赫尔潘尼补充说。
I’m not sure markets would be that unsettled by China being cited.
我不确定如果中国被列为汇率操纵国，市场会不会感到不安。
Still, the renminbi’s steady weakening has prompted foreign-exchange strategists to lower forecasts for next year.
尽管如此，人民币的持续走弱已促使外汇策略师调低明年的预期。
Goldman Sachs’ team has made one of the bolder predictions, expecting the currency to reach Rmb7 against the dollar in three months and Rmb7.30 by the end of 2017 as the onshore trading range continues to grind higher, driven by domestic pressures and in the context of a stronger dollar.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)团队做出了较大胆的预测，预计三个月内将达到1美元兑换7元人民币的关口，到2017年年底达到1美元兑换7.30元人民币，同时，迫于国内压力，加上处在强势美元的背景下，在岸人民币交易区间将继续缓慢扩大。
The median of analysts’ forecasts put the renminbi at Rmb7 against the dollar by the end of 2017, up from expectations six months ago it would be at Rmb6.8.
对于2017年底人民币兑美元汇率水平，分析师预测中值是1美元兑7元人民币，而6个月前的预测中值为1美元兑6.8元人民币。
Forward contracts, a measure of market bets, imply it will reach Rmb7.12.
远期合约（衡量市场押注情况）暗示到时汇率水平为1美元兑7.12元人民币。
An orderly decline, or a Trump-generated disorderly fall? What the president says, and how China responds, will be high on investors’ 2017 watchlist.
有序下跌，还是特朗普引发的无序下挫？这位总统怎么说，以及中国如何回应，将是投资者2017年观察清单中的重要事项。
