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Investors fleeing the yield-parched debt markets of the developed world are being forced to explore some unfamiliar frontiers, including China’s huge domestic bond market.
由于发达世界债券市场收益率枯竭，投资者纷纷逃离，被迫探索一些不熟悉的前沿市场，包括中国庞大的国内债券市场。
But how much exoticism is acceptable as a trade-off for higher yields? Chinese government bonds, backed by strong ratings from international rating agencies, are considered safe enough by some (see first chart). The 10-year bond is currently yielding 2.82 per cent, eclipsing the welter of negative-yielding issues around the developed world.
但为了获取更高收益率投资多少具有异域色彩的债券是可以接受的？中国政府债券有国际评级机构高评级的支持，被一些人视为足够安全（见第一张图）。当前十年期政府债券的收益率是2.82%，让发达世界一众负收益率债券黯然失色。
But how about buying a piece of the $2tn in debt issued by one of the world’s most indebted corporate sectors as default rates surge and domestic credit rating agencies continue to claim that everything is just fine?
但在违约率飙升和国内信用评级机构仍在宣称一切都好之际，买点中国企业部门发行的总额达2万亿美元的债券如何呢？中国企业部门的负债额排在全球最高之列。
Jeffrey Qi, portfolio manager at E-Fund, one of China’s largest asset managers with $150bn under management, says there are attractive returns to be had for yield refugees from Europe and elsewhere as long as they play by Chinese rules.
易方达(E Fund)投资组合经理Jeffrey Qi表示，只要按照中国规则行事，来自欧洲和其他地区的收益“难民”就会获得可观收益。易方达是中国最大的资产管理公司之一，旗下管理着1500亿美元的资产。
“There have been several credit events in China this year, but our fund has not been hit by any of them,” Mr Qi said. The company’s RMB Bond Fund had returned an annualised 7.1 per cent since inception in 2012 and an annualised 3.5 per cent so far this year, he said. About 80 per cent of the fund is invested in corporate bonds.
Jeffrey Qi表示：“中国今年出了数起信用事件，但我们的基金没有遭受冲击。”他说，易方达的人民币债券基金自2012年成立以来获得了7.1%的年化收益率，今年迄今的年化收益率为3.5%。该基金大约80%的资金投资于企业债券。
He puts the performance down to a healthy scepticism towards China’s Panglossian domestic credit rating agencies, which have awarded an investment grade rating to 99.5 per cent of all rated publicly issued debt outstanding.
他将业绩下滑归因于对中国国内过分乐观的信用评级机构的合理怀疑。被这些机构评为投资级别的债券，占到所有接受它们评级的公开发行债券未清偿总额的99.5%。
“We have our own internal rating system for the companies that we invest in,” Mr Qi added. “There is a big difference between our ratings and those of the domestic ratings companies.”
Jeffrey Qi补充称：“对于我们所投资的公司，我们有自己的内部评级系统。我们的评级与国内评级公司的评级有很大区别。”
E-Fund’s internal ratings are much less sparing of corporate egos than those of its rating agency counterparts, with many “junk” ratings awarded according to a 22-notch scale. The fund’s skill lies in using on-the-ground research to assess a company’s viability beyond its published financial figures, Mr Qi said.
易方达的内部评级系统比评级机构更为严格——按照其22档的评级制度，许多企业债属于“垃圾”级别。Jeffrey Qi表示，其技巧在于根据实地研究、而不只是公开发布的财务数据来评估一家公司的生存能力。
Nevertheless, the idea of snapping up pieces of corporate Chinese debt is not proving to be an easy sell overseas. For one thing, the depreciation of the renminbi currency against the US dollar since mid-April has taken the shine off renminbi-denominated investments.
然而，有关赶紧购买中国企业债的说法在海外难以叫人信服。一方面，今年4月中旬以来人民币兑美元贬值降低了以人民币计价的投资的吸引力。
For another, there is concern over the lack of transparency among Chinese corporations and the failing finances of many local governments, which are prevalent owners of debt-issuing companies.
另一方面，人们担心中国企业缺乏透明度，以及许多地方政府财政困难——地方政府常常是债券发行公司的所有者。
“What you are likely going to see is selective defaults over the coming years,” said Peter Kinsella, head of emerging market research at Commerzbank in London. “Effectively this problem is so large that you are likely to see a zombiefication of the state-owned enterprise sector in China with huge amounts of debt and non-performing debt.”
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)驻伦敦的新兴市场研究主管彼得•金塞拉(Peter Kinsella)表示：“今后几年你可能看到的是选择性的违约。实际上这是个很大的问题，你可能看到中国背负巨额债务和不良贷款的国企部门僵尸化。”
When it comes to the idea of buying bonds issued by local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) — companies that raise debt to invest in local government projects — Mr Kinsella gives clear warnings.
就购买地方政府融资平台(LGFV)发行的债券来说，金塞拉给出了明确的警告。地方政府融资平台是指举债投资于地方政府项目的公司。
“No one is going to be interested in local government bonds in China — you could buy Russia 10-year bonds giving you 9.5 per cent in local currency or 4 per cent in dollar bonds,” Mr Kinsella said.
金塞拉表示：“没有人会对中国地方政府的债券感兴趣——你可以买俄罗斯有9.5%收益率的十年期本币债券，或者收益率4%的美元债券。”
“Local governments have an issue because most of their revenue streams were derived from property sales and that is going to be an issue,” he added. ”There could be local interest for sure, but if you are trying to push local government bonds outside China I think that will be a hard sell.”
他补充称：“中国地方政府有一个问题，因为它们的收入大多来自卖地，这肯定会成为问题。国内肯定有人感兴趣，但如果你试图在中国境外推销地方政府债券，我认为这会很难。”
The yields offered by local government bonds are somewhat higher than those on central government bonds but opinions diverge on whether or not local governments and their subsidiary LGFVs enjoy an implicit guarantee from Beijing.
地方政府债券的收益率略高于中央政府债券，但地方政府以及它们旗下融资平台是否获得中央政府的隐性担保，人们看法不一。
Anthony Chan, Asian Sovereign Strategist at AllianceBernstein in Hong Kong, sees plenty of opportunities in the Chinese bond market. He said he expects Chinese bonds to be included in international bond indices at an unspecified date after which overseas funds may flow in.
联博有限公司(AllianceBernstein)驻香港的亚洲主权策略师陈祖杰(Anthony Chan)认为中国债券市场存在大量机会。他说，中国债券不一定哪一天就会被纳入国际债券指数，到时就会有海外资金流入。
JPMorgan, an investment bank, said in February that some $430bn in Chinese bonds could join its widely followed GBI-EM index once certain regulatory hurdles were scrapped. One impediment to entry was a minimum three-month holding period imposed on investors and monthly withdrawal limits, JPMorgan has said.
投行摩根大通(JPMorgan)今年2月表示，一旦消除特定监管障碍，约有4300亿美元的中国债券可能纳入其被广泛跟踪的新兴市场政府债券指数(GBI EM)。摩根大通表示，一个纳入障碍是投资者最低3个月的锁定期以及每月的赎回限额。
“We still see the Chinese bond market as very attractive,” Mr Chan said. “If investors take the view that the euro will weaken over time, it would be a strategic decision to allocate a certain amount into the renminbi asset class because it will be in the global index anyway.”
陈祖杰表示：“我们仍然认为中国债券市场非常有吸引力。如果投资者认为欧元将会逐渐贬值，配置一定数量的人民币资产将是具有战略意义的决定，因为它终将会被纳入全球指数。”
“Mostly government bonds are attracting investors,” Mr Chan said. “For corporate bonds, they need to have a more meaningful rating because now the domestic rating agencies all give triple A.”
陈祖杰说：“政府债券大都对投资者有吸引力。对企业债券来说，它们需要更有意义的评级，因为现在国内评级机构全都给予AAA评级。”
Mr Chan also said those corporate bonds that enjoy an implicit government guarantee were fairly attractive at a time when default risks are rising. Deciding which companies — beyond a phalanx of 106 centrally owned state-owned enterprises — can claim such a guarantee is, however, a nuanced business.
陈祖杰还表示，在违约风险日益上升之际，那些享有政府隐性担保的企业债券相当具有吸引力。然而，判断哪些公司——106家央企以外的企业——可以宣称有此类担保是微妙之事。
The default in the northeastern province of Liaoning of Dongbei Special Steel, which is majority-owned by provincial authorities, provides a case in point. The company has defaulted seven times on bond principal and interest payments worth Rmb4.8bn ($715m), challenging the notion that province-level state companies shelter under a government guarantee.
中国东北辽宁省东北特钢(Dongbei Special Steel)的违约就是很好的一个例子——东北特钢由省政府部门持有多数股权。该公司已出现7次债券违约，未能偿还48亿元人民币（合7.15亿美元）的本金和利息，让省级国企有政府担保的想法不攻自破。
Still, even with such problems, Mr Qi is confident of the China bond market’s performance. “We should perform a lot better than bond funds concentrated on Europe this year,” he said.
此外，即便存在上述问题，Jeffrey Qi仍对中国债券市场有信心。他说：“今年我们的表现应该比集中部署于欧洲的债券基金好得多。”
