评论
打印
One year on from China’s stock market collapse, some casualties are still feeling the pain. Shares in Chinese insurer Ping An have halved from their 2015 highs and trade just one-tenth above pre-rally levels. China Life languishes near 2008 lows. Much of the destruction has been due to an ill-timed increase in equity exposure that is unlikely to repeat itself — at least, not this year.
中国股市崩盘已过去一年了，一些受害者还在承受着痛楚。在中国保险公司中，中国平安(Ping An)的股价比2015年的高点下跌了一半，只比大涨前高十分之一；中国人寿(China Life)则在2008年的低位附近徘徊。造成这种惨跌的一部分原因是，它们在错误的时机扩大了在股市的敞口——它们不太可能再这么做了，至少今年不会。
The rise in China’s stock markets came just as the insurers won increased investment freedom. In early 2014, the insurance regulator (CIRC) lifted limits on equity investment from 20 to 30 per cent of assets, including private equity in the basket. As the market rallied, Ping An and China Life raised their equity holdings. After a stellar first half, the second-half market tumble dragged down 2015 results.
中国股市大涨之际，恰逢保险公司获得更大的投资自由度。2014年初，中国保监会将险资投资权益类资产的比例上限从20%提高到30%，并且允许进行私募股权投资。随着股市上涨，中国平安和中国人寿增持了股票。在经历了辉煌的上半年之后，下半年股市的暴跌拖累了它们2015年的业绩。
The effects have lingered. In the latest quarter, China Life’s net profits more than halved as investment income fell. Ping An fared slightly better, but Bernstein notes that net profit — which eked out a small gain — was flattered by a lower tax rate; pre-tax profit from insurance fell by around a quarter.
这种影响迟迟没有消散。在最新一个季度，由于投资收入下滑，中国人寿的净利润减少了一半以上。中国平安的情况略好，净利润小有增长。然而伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)指出，税率降低提高了中国平安的净利润，其来自保险业务的税前盈利下滑了大约四分之一。
Still, the selldown seems harsh. Away from the volatility in equities, growth in underlying business has been strong. In 2015 industry-wide premium income grew one-fifth, faster than the prior year. In the first four months of 2016 premiums grew by two-fifths, says the CIRC. Over the weekend, the regulator reiterated government support for the sector as a supplement to China’s social security system. The second half looks good; last year’s wipeout in the equity markets is unlikely to be repeated this year.
不过它们被抛售得有点太猛了。不谈所持股票的波动，它们的基础业务增长强劲。2015年全行业保费收入增长五分之一，增幅高于前一年。中国保监会表示，2016年头四个月保费增长了五分之二。上周末该监管机构重申政府支持把该行业作为中国社保体系的补充。今年下半年看起来情况不错，去年在股市的惨败在今年也不太可能重现。
There may yet be new risks. On Monday, China Life said it will invest $600m in Didi-Chuxing, China’s ride-hailing service, split between equity and debt. Small beer, for a company with total assets nearing $400bn and equity of $50bn. And Didi offers diversification benefits — just as long as investing in this unicorn isn’t proof that the sector is chasing another value bubble.
或许又出现了新的风险。周一，中国人寿表示将向中国叫车服务滴滴出行(Didi-Chuxing)投资6亿美元，包括股权投资和债权投资。对于总资产近4000亿美元、净资产500亿美元的企业来说，这笔投资算不了什么。而且投资滴滴也带来了多元化的好处——只要对这只“独角兽”的投资不会成为险资追逐另一轮价值泡沫的证据。
