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Janet Yellen has signalled that the US Federal Reserve will hold off raising rates this month, as she described Friday’s jobs report as disappointing and highlighted uncertainties ahead, including Britain’s referendum on its EU membership.
珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)发出信号表明，美联储(Fed)本月将暂缓加息，她形容上周五的就业报告令人失望，并指出未来的一些不确定性，包括英国就是否脱离欧盟举行公投。
In a speech in Philadelphia, Ms Yellen described the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy setting as “generally appropriate”, indicating that the Fed wants to sit tight at its meeting next week but is holding open the possibility of rate rises later should May’s jobs setback prove to be an anomaly.
耶伦在费城发表演讲时表示，美联储当前的货币政策设置“基本合适”，她暗示，美联储希望在下周的议息会议上按兵不动，但如果事实证明5月就业数据疲弱只是异常情况，不排除稍后加息的可能性。
As recently as two weeks ago, Fed officials were publicly hinting that they were preparing to raise rates for just the second time since the 2008 financial crisis, marking one of the clearest signs of confidence in years in the sustainability of the economic recovery. But the unexpected shortfall in May’s non-farm payrolls threw uncertainty over whether the US was facing a new economic threat or simply a temporary blip.
就在两周前，美联储官员公开暗示称，他们准备自2008年金融危机以来第二次加息，这是多年来最为明显的对美国经济持续复苏抱有信心的迹象之一。但5月非农就业数据的意外缺口带来了不确定性：美国面临新的经济威胁抑或只是暂时波动？
The Fed chair gave a broadly positive outlook for the US economy, saying it had made impressive gains since the post-crisis recession and that positive forces supporting job growth and inflation should outweigh negative ones, supporting arguments for gradual increases in short-term interest rates.
美联储主席认为美国经济前景总体乐观，她表示，美国经济自危机后的衰退以来取得了引人瞩目的进展，支持就业增长和通胀上升的积极因素应该胜过消极因素，支持逐步提高短期利率的主张。
While Ms Yellen said two weeks ago that she expected a rate move “in the coming months” she did not repeat those words, giving no clear indications as to the likely timing of the next move.
尽管耶伦两周前曾表示，她预计“在今后几个月内”调整利率，但她没有重复那些言辞，没有明显暗示下次加息的可能时机。
She spelt out “uncertainties” that will hang over policy. These include question marks over how resilient domestic demand will prove, as well as overseas risks from China, which faces “considerable” economic challenges, and Britain, where June’s referendum could have “significant economic repercussions”.
她阐述了将会影响政策的“不确定性”。这些不确定性包括：国内需求有多大弹性、来自中国的海外风险——中国面临“显著的”经济挑战，以及英国6月的脱欧公投可能“产生重大的经济冲击波”。
A further uncertainty surrounds inflation, with core price growth hovering below the Fed’s 2 per cent target in recent years and registering a 1.6 per cent year-on-year price growth for April. Ms Yellen added that downward movements in inflation-protected securities had her “close attention”.
通胀前景也具有不确定性，核心通胀最近几年一直低于美联储制定的2%的目标，4月同比上涨1.6%。耶伦补充称，通胀保值证券的下行走势受到她的“密切关注”。
As recently as 10 days ago, markets saw a one in three chance of a June rate rise. By lunchtime yesterday, those odds had fallen to one in 50 and futures trading pointed to odds of 25 per cent for a rate rise at July’s meeting, down from 55 per cent before Friday’s jobs report. The dollar index was down 0.4 per cent.
就在10天前，市场还认为6月有三分之一的几率加息。到昨日午餐时间，这种几率已降至50分之一，期货交易表明7月加息几率为25%，低于上周五就业报告发布之前的55%。美元指数下跌0.4%。
“Yellen has certainly put paid to a rate rise in June but there’s more going on here,” said Luke Bartholomew, investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Investment. “She acknowledged that the non-farm payroll numbers last week were bad, but essentially said that one set of bad numbers doesn’t make a poor economy.”
安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)投资经理卢克•巴塞洛缪(Luke Bartholomew)表示：“耶伦无疑结束了6月加息的可能性，但她话中有话。她承认上周的非农数据糟糕，但实质上表示，一组糟糕数据不代表经济疲弱。”
Ms Yellen’s fears will shift the focus to upcoming rates meetings as economists try to glean how soon the Fed will be in a position to resume rises.
耶伦的担忧将会让市场关注即将举行的议息会议，目前经济学家试图从各种线索中发现美联储多久之后将能够再次加息。
