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The financial outlook for Chinese companies is deteriorating at a record rate as a large debt overhang accumulated since the 2008 financial crisis and waning corporate profits presage an “extended period of subpar economic growth”, according to Moody’s, the credit rating agency.
信用评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)称，中国企业的财务前景正以创纪录速度恶化，自2008年金融危机以来积累的沉重债务负担和不断减弱的企业利润预示着“较长时期的偏低经济增长”。
The agency more than quadrupled the number of Chinese debt issuers it classified as having a “negative outlook bias” on their credit ratings at the end of the first quarter of this year, compared to the end of 2015.
与2015年底相比，该机构在今年第一季度末列为信用评级“负面展望偏向”的中国发债人数量增加了3倍。
A negative bias includes both those companies with ratings on review for a downgrade and those with a negative outlook on their rating.
负面偏向包括两类企业：一是那些评级正受到调降评估的企业，二是那些评级展望为负面的企业。
“The share of rated issuers in China with a negative outlook bias . . . has increased to a record high of 69 per cent,” Moody’s said in a report yesterday. This proportion was up from 15.7 per cent at the end of last year and 33.3 per cent at the end of March.
“在中国的获评级发行人当中，具有负面展望偏向的发行人的比例……已升至69%的创纪录高位，”穆迪昨日在一份报告中表示。这一比例在去年底为15.7%，3月底为33.3%。
The previous peak proportion of rated Chinese debt issuers with a “negative outlook bias” was 45.5 per cent, a level hit in May 2009 as the Chinese economy suffered in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Moody’s rates hundreds of corporations, a cohort that includes many of the most significant companies in the country.
此前有“负面展望偏向”的中国债券发行人的最高比例为45.5%，那是在2009年5月创下的，当时中国经济正受到金融危机余波的打击。穆迪对数百家公司进行评级，包括许多中国最举足轻重的企业。
The upsurge in misgivings over the health of corporate China comes after Moody’s dropped the outlook for China’s government bonds in March to negative from stable, reflecting an erosion in fiscal strength, a fall in foreign exchange reserves owing to capital outflows and uncertainly over Beijing’s ability to implement reforms.
对中国企业界健康状况的担忧加剧之前，穆迪在3月份曾将中国政府债券的展望从稳定调降至负面，反映出中国财政实力受到削弱，资本外流导致外汇储备下降，以及围绕北京方面落实改革能力的不确定性。
In spite of the growing signs of financial distress, Moody’s said it thought China has the capacity to avoid a financial unravelling. “We believe that China’s authorities have the tools to prevent a financial crisis from materialising in the near future,” said the report. It added that the fact that the Chinese banking system was state-backed, funded domestically and that authorities had considerable powers of moral suasion all helped to impart solidity.
尽管财务困境的迹象越来越多，但穆迪表示，它认为中国具备避免金融动荡的能力。“我们相信，中国政府拥有必要工具，能够防止金融危机在不久的将来成为现实，”报告称。它补充说，中国的银行体系是国家支持的，资金来自国内，而当局拥有较大的道德说服力量，这些事实都有利于保持稳健。
Nevertheless, the strain of covering China’s manifold financial frailties would impose a “substantial deadweight cost” on the economy, the report added. The price of this would be expressed in the persistence of large unrecognised banking sector losses, misallocation of capital, delays to the reduction in excess capacity and economic rebalancing, and a prolonged period of suboptimal growth, the report said.
话虽如此，报告又称，应对中国多方面金融弱点所带来的负担，将对经济造成“可观的拖累成本”。报告表示，这种代价的体现形式将包括：银行业的巨大损失继续不被确认，资本配置不当，经济再平衡和减少过剩产能的努力被延后，以及较长时期的偏低增长。
An expression of this pain is evident in corporate balance sheets, where the incremental capital output ratio — which measures the amount of investment required to generate a unit of economic growth — clearly shows worsening productivity. This ratio rose to 6.3 in 2014, the highest since the 2008 crisis and much higher than the pre-crisis 2.9 times seen in 2007.
这种痛苦明显体现于企业的资产负债表，其中的增量资本产出率（衡量产生一个单位的经济增长所需的投资）清楚地表明生产率不断恶化。这一比率在2014年升至6.3倍，这是自2008年爆发金融危机以来的最高位，而且远高于危机前2007年的2.9倍。
In addition, the return on assets for state-owned companies has reached its lowest level since 2001.
此外，国有企业的资产回报率已达到自2001年以来的最低水平。
