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If a speculator-loathing central bank were planning a victory celebration, it could do worse than make its currency free to borrow offshore, while pushing its exchange rate to its strongest this year.
如果一家厌恶投机者的央行计划庆祝一下胜利，以下这种做法可能还不是最狠的：让本币在离岸市场可以免费借入，同时把本币汇率推高至今年以来最高水平。
That, in effect was what happened to the renminbi last week, whether or not the People’s Bank of China intended it. The end of a quarter that began with hedge funds and others making big bets against the Chinese currency finished with short-term renminbi borrowing rates in Hong Kong turning negative for a day — the first such event — and the onshore rate being fixed at its strongest rate since mid-December.
实际上，这正是上周发生在人民币身上的事情，无论中国央行(PBoC)是否有意为之。上季度开始时，对冲基金等机构大举押注人民币下跌，而在上季度最后一天，香港离岸人民币隔夜拆借利率变为负值（有记录以来首次），在岸人民币兑美元汇率则设定在自去年12月中旬以来的最高水平。
Between the height of renminbi drama in early January, when China bears felt vindicated by a sharp weakening in the offshore rate, and now investors have faced a formidable adversary in the form of the PBoC. The central bank has intervened in the onshore and offshore currency markets, introduced new bank capital requirements and drawn heavily on its reserves.
在1月初人民币行情最戏剧化之际，离岸人民币汇率大跌曾令做空中国者确信自己是正确的。从那时到现在这段时间里，投资者们一直面对着中国央行这个可怕的对手。中国央行对在岸和离岸人民币市场进行了干预，出台了新的银行存款准备金要求，并动用了大量外汇储备。
The result has been a deep rethink among investors and a reduction in the size of their positions. The question now, particularly for hedge funds licking their wounds, is whether a bearish view on China’s economy and one that entails a much weaker currency will prevail in the coming months or not.
结果导致投资者进行深深的反思，并降低了自己的头寸。现在的问题、尤其是正舔伤口的对冲基金面临的问题，是看空中国经济、并押注人民币大幅贬值的观点，在未来几个月会不会取胜。
“A lot of people still believe the currency has to adjust lower — and we are of that view — but the question now is how that will happen,” says Paul Mackel, head of emerging markets currency research at HSBC. “It probably won’t happen as violently as people thought before.”
“很多人仍相信，人民币会被迫向下调整——我们也这样认为——但现在的问题在于，人民币将如何向下调整，”汇丰银行(HSBC)新兴市场外汇研究主管保罗•麦凯尔(Paul Mackel)表示，“人民币贬值很可能不会像人们之前以为的那样剧烈。”
The troublesome offshore market, where international investors express views, has been subdued for one. Intervention as well as new reserve requirements have drained liquidity.
理由之一是，棘手的离岸市场——这里是国际投资者表达观点的地方——已被驯服。干预和新出台的离岸人民币存款准备金要求收紧了流动性。
“Since August 2015 [when China conducted a one-off devaluation] the offshore market has imposed significant challenges to the PBoC’s efforts to stabilise the renminbi,” says Xiangrong Yu, a strategist at CICC. “In particular, the wide spreads invited massive cross-border arbitrage and worsened market expectations amid the depreciation pressure.”
“自2015年8月（当时中国实施了人民币一次性贬值）以来，离岸市场一直对中国央行稳定人民币的努力构成巨大的挑战，”中金公司(CICC)策略师余向荣说，“尤其是，在岸和离岸汇率之间的巨大价差引发大规模的跨境套利活动，在人民币遭遇贬值压力之际恶化了市场预期。”
Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong, the centre of the offshore market, had dropped to Rmb804bn ($124bn) by the end of February — their lowest in more than two years, and down a fifth from their peak in late 2014.
在作为离岸人民币中心的香港，到今年2月底人民币存款已降至8040亿元人民币（约合1240亿美元），为两年多以来的最低水平，较2014年末的峰值下降了五分之一。
Strategists say reserve requirements probably caused overnight interbank borrowing costs for renminbi in Hong Kong to turn negative last week. The PBoC assesses banks on a quarterly basis for reserve requirements, which were applied to offshore deposits for the first time in January, meaning banks last Thursday in theory had an interest in making deposits smaller — even if in practice that means paying borrowers to take funds. The result is a market that is more similar to its onshore cousin.
策略师们表示，上周香港人民币隔夜银行间拆借利率变为负值的原因，很可能在于存款准备金要求。中国央行今年1月首次对离岸人民币存款要求存款准备金，按季度对商业银行进行考核，这意味着，理论上，银行在上周四有减少存款的动机——即便实际上那意味着要向资金拆入方付钱。结果是，离岸人民币市场变得更像在岸人民币市场了。
“The renminbi is controlled and it will be controlled. It’s not a free market; the PBoC is the biggest player and we all know that,” says one senior banker at a mainland institution, who does not expect more dramatic moves this year.
“人民币受到管控，并将继续受到管控。这不是一个自由市场；中国央行是最大的玩家，我们都知道这一点，”中国内地一家机构的资深银行家表示。他预计，今年将不会出现更剧烈的变动。
According to a survey by Reuters of non-deliverable forward positions — one way short bets are expressed — investors are still slightly short renminbi, but those positions are less than a quarter of their January peaks. That tallies with anecdotal reports from bank trading desks and hedge fund brokers.
根据路透社(Reuters)对无本金交割远期(NDF)头寸——这是看空押注的一条途径——的调查，投资者仍在小规模做空人民币，但那些头寸已不足1月峰值的四分之一。这符合银行交易部门和对冲基金经纪商传出的说法。
One strategy gaining traction is to focus more on the renminbi’s moves against currencies other than the dollar. Measured against the PBoC’s own basket of currencies and against which it tracks the renminbi, the Chinese currency has fallen 1.6 per cent in a month.
一项吸引力正在增强的策略，是把重心更多地放在人民币对美元以外其他货币的行情上。以中国央行自己的一篮子货币（人民币盯住的对象）来衡量，人民币在一个月里贬值了1.6%。
The Federal Reserve could also help the renminbi bears. While dovish comments by Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, in the past week helped the renminbi higher as the US dollar sank, analysts warn against reading the moves as a new trend.
美联储(Fed)可能也会帮助看空人民币者。尽管过去一周里，美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)的鸽派言论帮助推动人民币汇率随着美元下跌而走高，但分析师们警告市场不要把这些行情看成是新趋势。
“You still have to think that the Fed is going to hike at some point and the PBoC will be easing policy — and that rate differential will weigh on the renminbi. This is a tale of two currencies, not just China,” Mr Mackel says.
“你仍然必须认为，美联储将在某个时点加息，而中国央行将放宽货币政策——而两国的利率差异将令人民币承压。这是关乎两国货币的故事，并非只关乎中国一国，”麦凯尔说。
