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Emerging markets such as China pose a growing risk to advanced economies with events in developing economies increasingly responsible for price movements in financial markets in richer countries, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称，中国等新兴市场对发达经济体构成越来越大的风险，发展中经济体发生的事件在越来越大的程度上影响着较富裕国家金融市场的价格走势。
Moreover, markets were only just beginning to feel what was likely to be the growing impact of China in the years to come as its financial links with the rest of the global economy increase, IMF economists said yesterday.
IMF经济学家们昨日表示，市场还只是刚刚开始感受到中国的影响；随着中国与全球经济其它部分的金融联系不断增多，这种影响在未来几年里很可能不断加大。
“It is likely that China’s spillovers to global financial markets will increase considerably in the next few years,” they said in a chapter of the upcoming Global Financial Stability Report released ahead of next week’s spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
“中国对全球金融市场产生的溢出效应很可能将在未来几年里显著加大，”他们在即将发表的《全球金融稳定报告》(Global Financial Stability Report)的一章里表示。IMF和世界银行(World Bank)下周将举行春季会议。
The fund’s warning comes amid concerns about the slowing growth in China and its leadership’s efforts to shift the economy from one driven by manufacturing exports and investment to one more reliant on domestic consumption.
IMF发出警告之际，外界担忧中国经济增长放缓和中国领导层推动经济转型（从制成品出口和投资驱动转向在更大程度上依赖国内消费）的努力。
It also comes as central banks in advanced economies such as the US Federal Reserve are increasingly factoring what is happening in emerging markets such as China into their own policy calculations.
与此同时，美联储(Federal Reserve)等发达经济体的央行日益在运筹帷幄时考虑中国等新兴市场的事态。
According to the IMF, the impact on advanced markets of developments in emerging economies had grown to the point where “spillovers” account for a third of price movements in advanced equity and foreign exchange markets.
IMF称，新兴经济体的事态对发达市场产生的影响越来越大，已达到“溢出效应”占发达经济体股市和汇市三分之一价格变动的地步。
While news out of China had been behind much of the turmoil in commodities and other markets in recent months, the reality was that the direct financial market linkages remained relatively small, the IMF said.
IMF称，尽管近几个月从中国传出的新闻在很大程度上导致大宗商品等市场的动荡，但现实是中国与外部世界的直接金融市场联系仍相对较小。
But strict limits on foreign investment in the local bond and other markets had begun to fall and capital controls had become increasingly porous, the fund’s economists said. The result was that the direct impact of China on financial markets was only likely to grow as its markets continued to open up.
但IMF经济学家们表示，针对外资进入中国债券以及其它市场的严格限制已开始放宽，绕开资本管制的途径也变得越来越多。其结果是，随着中国的市场继续加大开放，中国对金融市场产生的直接影响很可能有增无减。
“China’s financial integration with the rest of the world is expected to accelerate, and its financial influence abroad will likely catch up with its economic prowess,” the economists wrote.
“预计中国与世界其他地区的金融一体化将会加速，中国在海外的金融影响力将很可能赶上其经济实力，”这些经济学家写道。
The Chinese bond market, for example, now had the third-largest market capitalisation in the world at $6.7tn and had been growing at an annual average rate of 22 per cent over the past five years, said the IMF. It was largely closed to foreign investors until last year, when central banks and sovereign wealth funds were allowed to invest.
IMF表示，举例来说，中国债券市场的规模已经达到6.7万亿美元，位列世界第三，在过去五年里年均扩大22%。在去年出台改革、允许各国央行和主权财富基金投资之前，该市场对境外投资者基本上是关闭的。
That limited opening, which came about as China successfully pursued a place for the renminbi in the elite basket of currencies used to value the special drawing rights, the IMF’s own de facto currency, was likely to result in central banks allocating more resources to Chinese assets. It said the future “opening up of Chinese bond and equity markets will have major implications for global asset allocation”.
去年的有限开放很可能导致各国央行把更多资源配置到中国资产。与此同时，中国成功推动人民币加入特别提款权(SDR)精英货币篮子、成为这种IMF事实上的货币的估值货币之一。IMF称，“中国债券和股票市场的（未来）开放将对全球资产配置产生重大影响”。
Much of the recent turmoil in financial markets had been blamed on a lack of clear communication by Beijing of its policy goals, and the growing risk of spillovers highlighted how and why that needed to change, the fund said.
该组织表示，近期金融市场的动荡在很大程度上被归咎于北京方面对其政策目标缺乏明确沟通，而越来越大的溢出效应风险说明了这一局面如何以及为什么需要改变。
