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Levels of debt in emerging markets continue to rise and are becoming a source of “significant concern”, the Institute of International Finance warned on Wednesday.
周三，国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)警告，新兴市场债务水平继续攀升，正在成为引发“严重担忧”的一大源头。
Total government, household, financial sector and corporate debt in emerging markets rose $1.6tn last year to $62tn, or more than 210 per cent of gross domestic product, according to the IIF, which represents global banks and other financial institutions.
国际金融协会是一家代表全球银行和其他金融机构的组织，该组织称，去年新兴市场政府、家庭、金融部门和企业债务总额攀升了1.6万亿美元至62万亿美元，是其国内生产总值(GDP)的2.1倍以上。
It happened even as developed markets reduced their overall debt by an estimated $12tn last year, to about $175tn.
与此同时，据估计去年发达市场总体债务却减少了12万亿美元，至大约175万亿美元。
“Total debt in EMs is high and getting higher,” said Hung Tran, the IIF’s executive managing director. “This will inhibit the ability to borrow to support growth, and the need to delever in the future will be a strong headwind to future growth.”
“新兴市场总的债务水平极高，而且正在继续升高。”国际金融协会执行总裁洪川(Hung Tran)表示。“这种状况将会抑制新兴市场通过借债支持经济增长的能力，而未来去杠杆的必要性也将成为阻碍未来增长的一大不利因素。”
Mr Tran said the IIF’s figures were consistent with those of the Bank for International Settlements, which said recently that dollar-denominated lending to EMs had peaked in the middle of last year and subsequently fallen for the first time since the global financial crisis.
洪川表示，国际金融协会的数据与国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据一致。最近，国际清算银行的数据显示，发放给新兴市场的以美元计价的贷款在去年年中达到峰值，并在随后出现全球金融危机以来的首次下滑。
The BIS, the central bank of central banks, warned of a vicious circle of deleveraging, financial market turmoil and a global economic downturn.
作为“央行的央行”的国际清算银行就去杠杆、金融市场动荡和全球经济下行的恶性循环发出了警告。
“Many non-financial corporations in emerging markets and especially in China have paid down their foreign currency debts so the BIS is correct,” said Mr Tran. “But they have increased their local currency debts by more than the amount they have paid down so net on net the stock of debt continues to increase everywhere, particularly in China.”
洪川表示：“在新兴市场、尤其是中国，许多非金融企业已偿还了外汇债务。因此，国际清算银行说得没错。不过，他们的本币债务增加的数额超过了他们所偿还的数额。因此从净结果看，各地的债务额仍在继续增加，尤其是在中国。”
Companies in developed markets reduced their level of debt to GDP by 0.4 percentage points during 2015 to 87.4 per cent, the IIF’s figures show, while those in emerging markets added 6.7 points to reach 101.3 per cent of GDP. The IIF’s figures are for 19 emerging markets; in those countries taken together, corporate debt rose more than $1.9tn in 2015, to more than $25tn.
国际金融协会的数据显示，2015年期间发达市场企业债务与GDP之比降低了0.4个百分点，降至87.4%。与此同时，新兴市场企业债务与GDP之比却增加了6.7个百分点，达到101.3%。国际金融协会的数据涵盖了19个新兴市场国家，这些国家加总来看，2015年它们的企业债务攀升了逾1.9万亿美元，达到逾25万亿美元。
The IIF warned that emerging market borrowers face a particularly heavy period of bond and loan maturities this year and in the subsequent four years. Including governments, households, the financial sector and non-financial sector, about $730bn in bonds and loans will come due between April and December this year, rising to more than $900bn next year, according to the IIF.
国际金融协会警告，今年和今后四年，新兴市场的借款人面临一段债券和贷款到期的尤为密集的时期。根据该机构的数据，包括政府、家庭、金融部门和非金融部门在内，大约7300亿美元的债券和贷款将会在今年4月和12月之间到期，这一数字明年会攀升至逾9000亿美元。
Most of the maturities are in the non-financial corporate sector (see chart).
这些到期债务中的大多数来自非金融企业部门（见图表）。
“This is a challenge for many EM corporates,” said Mr Tran. “If we continue to see the current picture of a strong dollar, low commodity prices, slow growth and rising US interest rates, it will be very tough for many companies to raise the necessary refinancing.”
洪川表示：“这是许多新兴市场企业面临的一大挑战。如果当前这种强势美元、低大宗商品价格、增长低迷和美国利率攀升的局面持续下去，许多企业将极难进行必要的再融资。”
He said this was reflected in the low rate of bond and loan issuance this year, which is running at about 35 per cent less than it was this time in 2015.
他说，今年债券发行和贷款发放低迷就能反映出这一点——比2015年同期低了35%左右。
“The level of non-performing bank loans has been rising and will probably keep rising, and we think the risk and incidence of default by corporates will increase this year,” he said.
他说：“不良银行贷款的水平一直在攀升，也许还会继续攀升。我们认为，今年企业违约的风险和发生率将会升高。”
