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Chinese premier Li Keqiang sought at the weekend to balance conflicting goals of stimulating China’s economy and reforming it, as he presented economic targets at the country’s parliamentary meeting.
中国总理李克强周末在全国人大会议上提出了经济目标，寻求在刺激和改革中国经济这两个相互矛盾的目标之间达到平衡。
The annual session of the National People’s Congress comes as Beijing faces questions over its stewardship of the economy, amid slowing growth and rising debt burdens, and after a series of stock market crashes roiled global markets.
一年一次的全国人大会议举行之际，北京在经济管理方面受到种种质疑。目前中国经济增长不断放缓，债务负担不断加大，还发生了一连串震撼全球市场的股市大跌。
Mr Li announced a growth target range for this year of 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent, above what many international economists believe is realistic. At the same time he projected the fiscal deficit to rise to 3 per cent — a sharp increase but below expectations — as the government struggles to shift from an inefficient, capital-intensive growth model while cushioning an economic slowdown.
李克强宣布今年的增长目标区间是6.5%至7%，高于许多国际经济学家视为现实的水平。同时，他预计财政赤字比例将升至3%——升幅较大，但小于预期。目前中国政府正在艰难地转变效率低下、资本密集的增长模式，同时为经济放缓提供缓冲。
“They’re looking for balance,” said Shao Yu, chief economist at Orient Securities in Shanghai. “The attitude is, ‘yes we’ll do a bit of fiscal stimulus, but we’ll also keep in mind that we already have a lot of debt’.”
“他们正在寻找平衡，”东方证券(Orient Securities)首席经济学家邵宇在上海表示。“现在的态度是，‘没错，我们会搞一些财政刺激，但我们也将记住，我们已经有大量债务'。”
But for some the continued focus on gross domestic product is blunting the reform drive.
但在一些人士看来，继续着眼于国内生产总值(GDP)，正使改革失去锋芒。
“The growth targets are ambitious and efforts to meet them may detract from reform,” said Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics. “The caveat that [trimming overcapacity] will be done ’proactively yet prudently’ confirms our expectations that the efforts will be relatively timid.”
“这些增长目标雄心勃勃，为达到这些目标而付出的努力可能会有损改革，”牛津经济(Oxford Economics)的高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示。“有关（削减过剩产能）将‘积极稳妥’进行的提醒，证实了我们的预期，即这方面的努力将是相对缩手缩脚的。”
Beijing’s decision makers must also contend with a more fragmented economy after 15 years of nationwide expansion. The collapse in coal and oil prices, along with the bursting of local housing bubbles, means economic growth has slowed very sharply in some regions while holding up in others.
经过持续15年的全国扩张之后，北京的决策者还必须应对一个更为分化的经济。煤炭和石油价格的崩盘，加上某些地方房地产泡沫的破裂，意味着经济增长在某些地区急剧减速，而在其它一些地区保持得还可以。
“Go to a steel town in the industrial north or drive through miles of empty apartments in a second-tier city and you see China is in recession,” Andrew Gilholm, Control Risks’ managing director for Asia, wrote recently. “Look at the performance of a private service-sector company in Jiangsu or tour an R&D park in Shanghai, and you see China is still enjoying double-digit growth.”
“去一下北方工业地区的某个炼钢重镇，或者驱车经过某个二线城市绵延数英里的闲置公寓楼，你会看到中国正处于经济衰退，”咨询机构“控制风险”(Control Risks)亚洲董事总经理安德鲁•吉洛姆(Andrew Gilholm)最近写道。 “看一看江苏某个私营服务业公司的表现，或者走访上海的某个研发园区，你会看到中国仍然享受着两位数的增长。”
The divergence reverberated on Saturday through the Great Hall of the People, where thousands of delegates turned pages in unison as they listened to Mr Li’s speech — “the longest ever”, one noted wryly.
这种差异上周六在人民大会堂产生回响，数千名代表在聆听李克强讲话的时候整齐划一地一页页翻过稿件。“有史以来最长的（政府工作报告），”其中一个人揶揄道。
“We still need to pay attention to price rises in the top cities,” Jia Kang, director of the research institute at the Ministry of Finance, told reporters during a tea break. “But many localities do have a problem with debt. They also have to meet social payments, especially in high unemployment areas.”
“我们仍然需要注意一线城市的价格上涨，”原财政部财政科学研究所所长贾康在茶歇时间告诉记者。“但很多地方确实有债务问题。他们还必须负担社会福利支出，特别是在高失业率地区。”
Millions could lose their jobs as unproductive “zombie” businesses are finally allowed to fail. Beijing’s plan is for closures to be funded by central and local governments as well as the groups themselves, with the help of new loans. However, it is not clear that all cash-strapped regions or near-bankrupt companies can do so.
随着效率低下的“僵尸”企业终于被允许倒闭，数百万人可能下岗。北京的计划是让中央和地方政府以及企业集团本身在新贷款的帮助下为关厂买单。不过，尚不清楚资金紧张的地区或濒临破产的企业能否做到这一点。
Already, sporadic worker protests have caught Beijing’s attention, including a demonstration at the Ministry of Education last month by hundreds of unpaid teachers from the provinces. “It’s true that some regions have seen negative growth” in fiscal revenues, said Wang Yiming, vice-minister of the Development Research Center, an influential think-tank that advises China’s State Council, or cabinet. “It’s the effect of resource-dependence.”
零星的工人抗议已经引起北京的注意，包括上月数百名被拖欠工资的教师从地方来到北京，在教育部大门外举行示威。为中国国务院提供咨询的有影响力的智库——国务院发展研究中心的副主任王一鸣表示，一些地区的财政收入“确实出现了负增长”。他称，“这是资源依赖的效应。”
Mr Li is overseeing a tax reform effort that will channel more fiscal resources to local governments along with new spending mandates. Asked how the hardest-hit regions will meet their new obligations, Zhu Guangyao, vice-minister of finance, said: “That’s the point of the fiscal reform. It will give them more ability to respond.”
李克强正在推行一项税收改革措施，此举将向地方政府输送更多财政资源，并让它们承担新的支出任务。在被问及经济放缓的重灾区将如何履行其新义务时，财务部副部长朱光耀表示：“这正是财政改革的意义。此举将增强他们的应对能力。”
Some local governments are not waiting. Despite China’s slowing economy, an unprecedented number of new coal-fired power plants have been approved in the past year. That reflects local-government efforts to create a market for their coal rather than close lossmaking mines. Central policymakers may similarly hesitate to address unproductive overcapacity if that means exacerbating regional slowdowns.
一些地方政府并未等待。尽管中国经济增长放缓，但过去一年有空前数量的燃煤电厂项目获批。这反映出地方政府试图为当地的煤炭创建一个市场，而不是关闭亏损的煤矿。中央政府的政策制定者也可能在化解低效率的过剩产能方面态度犹豫——如果削减产能意味着加剧地方的放缓的话。
