It looks like subprime derivatives on steroids: China hopes to bundle together billions of dollars’ worth of non-performing loans and eventually sell them to global investors.
中国希望将巨额不良贷款打包,最终将其卖给全球投资者——这看起来像是一种嗑了药的次级衍生品。
Such a massive securitisation programme would represent the latest tactic in China’s campaign to lift one of the biggest shadows cast over its slowing economy — a debt pile that is as big as 230 per cent of GDP.
如此大规模的证券化计划代表着中国在消除债务战役中采取的最新战术。中国的巨大债务是笼罩在其不断放缓的经济头上的最大阴影之一,债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比高达230%。
It would whittle back debts at Chinese banks and move some of the risk outside the domestic financial system. According to official figures, such debts have reached Rmb1.27tn ($194bn), while analysts estimate the real number is likely to be many times higher.
这么做将会减轻中国各银行的债务,并将部分风险转移出国内金融体系。根据官方公布的数据,这类债务已达1.27万亿元人民币(合1940亿美元),而分析师们估计实际数字可能高出好几倍。
Chinese media have reported that the regulator has granted a total of Rmb50bn for the first wave of products. Demand for the scheme, however, is expected to be significantly more modest than supply.
据中国媒体报道,监管机构已授权将500亿元人民币的不良贷款打包成第一波证券化产品。不过,对该计划的需求预计会大大低于供给。
“How many global investors have been interested in the traditional [bad debt in China]?” asked one Hong Kong-based investor with experience buying distressed debt in Asia. “Not many. Is a more complicated version of this going to change that soon? No.”
“有多少全球投资者对传统的(中国坏债)感兴趣?”一位有购买亚洲不良债权经历的香港投资者问道。“不太多。这种坏债的更复杂版本会很快改变这种局面吗?不会。”
Some consultants think the products could help simplify bad debt investing in China. The packaged bad loans would be backed by collateral and have means of producing cash flow as assets are restructured or liquidated. Products with stronger cash flow are likely to be sold in senior tranches, according to Wilson Pang, a partner at KPMG.
一些咨询师认为,这些证券化产品可能有助于简化在中国的坏债投资。被打包的不良贷款将得到抵押品的支持,而且随着资产被重组或清盘,它们也能产生现金流。根据毕马威(KPMG)合伙人彭富强(Wilson Pang)的说法,现金流较强的产品可能会以较高级别出售。
The products will not be rated by the international rating agencies — which took some of the heat when securitisation of US subprime mortgages imploded in 2008.
这些产品不会由国际评级机构评级。2008年美国次级按揭的证券化衍生品内爆时,这些评级机构受到了一定程度的谴责。
The China Banking Regulatory Commission has long been pushing the biggest banks to wipe bad assets off their balance sheets. But a flood of non-performing loans as the economy decelerates has prompted the regulator to turn to more creative — and riskier — methods for ditching the debt.
中国银监会(CBRC)一直在推动各大银行将不良资产从其资产负债表移除。然而,因中国经济减速而催生的大批不良贷款,已促使银监会转而采取更有创意也风险更高的办法摆脱债务。
China’s biggest banks will in the next few months begin issuing billions of renminbi worth of asset-backed securities with non-performing loans as the underlying asset in the latest attempt to tackle the problem. Banks are eager to take part, in an effort to clear their balance sheets and generate liquidity. The regulator is just as eager for the products to reach international markets, shifting risk outside the financial system.
今后几个月,中国各大银行将开始发行巨额的资产支持证券,这些证券以不良贷款作为其背后的支持资产。此举是解决不良贷款问题的最新企图。各银行急于参与这一活动,试图借此清理其资产负债表并产生流动性。银监会也同样迫切地希望让这些产品进入国际市场,从而将风险转移至中国金融体系以外。