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China has reminded investors that there’s more to the country than worrisome economic indicators by announcing a significant step in the opening up of its domestic interbank bond market. The move has positive implications for capital flows and the strength of the currency.
中国在开放国内银行间债市方面推出了一个重大举措，提醒投资者这个国家并不是只有令人担忧的经济指标。此举将对资本流动和人民币走势产生积极影响。
One of the challenges in forming a clear understanding of China’s economy from the perspective of investment risk and reward is the complex interplay taking place between cyclical trends and structural reform.
要从投资风险和回报的角度对中国经济形成一个清晰的认识，一个难点是周期性趋势和结构性改革之间错综复杂的相互作用。
Slowing GDP growth, capital outflows, unsustainable credit growth, currency devaluations and volatile financial markets add up to an intimidating short-to-medium-term outlook.
国内生产总值(GDP)增长放缓、资本外流、不可持续的信贷增长、人民币贬值和金融市场波动，这些因素共同组成了中国令人生畏的中短期前景。
Longer term, however, the prospects are brighter: the government’s commitment to reform – including the internationalisation of the renminbi, liberalisation of capital markets and encouragement of private capital (foreign and domestic) into currently state-owned enterprises – bodes well for sustainable future growth.
然而，长期来看中国的前景要光明得多：政府承诺开展多方面改革，包括人民币国际化、资本市场自由化以及鼓励（国内外）私人资本进入国有企业，这些对中国经济未来实现可持续增长是好事。
The coincidence of adverse economic conditions and the need to pursue reforms creates complications for China’s policymakers in pursuing their objectives, and in communicating them effectively to sceptical and skittish markets.
当前不利的经济形势加上改革的必要性，使中国政策制定者在推进其目标并向多疑敏感的市场有效传达这些目标方面遇到困难。
Depending on which way the news pendulum swings, there’s a tendency to blow hot and cold on China’s prospects when what’s needed is a more balanced perspective. With the latest announcement by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the pendulum for the moment has definitely swung back to “hot.”
外界对中国前景是好是坏的看法随着消息面的风向而摇摆不定，而现在我们需要的是一种更平衡的观点。中国央行(PBoC)的最新公告让钟摆暂时确定无疑地摆向了“看好”。
Come One, Come All
放开限制
The PBoC has expanded the pool of eligible foreign investors in the interbank market. They now include almost all foreign commercial banks, insurance companies, securities firms, asset management companies and long-term investors such as pension funds, charity funds and endowment funds.
中国央行扩大了有资格投资国内银行间债市的境外投资者范围，涵盖了几乎所有外国商业银行、保险公司、证券公司、资产管理公司，以及养老基金、慈善基金、捐赠基金等长期机构投资者。
Previously, access was limited to banks that provided RMB clearing and/or settlement, and only a few insurance companies gained entry, subject to eligibility criteria that were never clearly explained.
此前只有提供人民币清算、结算业务的银行才能进入中国银行间债市；获得准入的保险公司更是只有寥寥几家，至于它们依据的资格标准，中方从未对外清楚解释过。
Securities firms and asset managers were limited to those participating in the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) programmes.
有资格的证券公司和资产管理公司则仅限于参加合格境外机构投资者(QFII)和人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)项目的机构。
In other changes, the quota limit for long-term investors has been removed and the eligibility criteria for individual participants make no stipulation with regard to assets under management or years in operation.
其他变化包括取消长期机构投资者的额度限制，对个人投资者提出的资格标准未对其名下资产规模或者从事证券投资年数作出规定。
The only criteria that institutions now have to satisfy are that they have been established in accordance with relevant local laws; they have sound management structures, internal control systems and standard business practices; their funds are legally sourced; and they are able to identify, understand, manage and bear the risk of owning bonds.
现在机构投资者只需满足以下标准即可：它们是依照所在国家或地区相关法律成立的；具有健全的治理结构和完善的内控制度，经营行为规范；资金来源合法合规；具备相应的风险识别和承担能力，知悉并自行承担债券投资风险。
One of the reasons behind the timing of the move is likely to have been the domestic bond market’s strong growth – 35 per cent in 2015, with net issuance rising to Rmb12.5tn ($1.9tn). We expect growth to continue this year across the central and local government bond sectors, in negotiable certificates of deposit issued by banks and in corporate debt.
中国央行选择在此时推出此举，背后的原因之一可能是国内债券市场的强劲增长——在2015年增长率达到了35%，净发行额升至12.5万亿元人民币(合1.9万亿美元)。我们预计今年各类债券发行将继续全线增长，包括中央和地方政府债券、银行的可转让存款证和企业债。
Apply a Balanced Perspective
全面权衡
The PBoC’s initiative is a major development, in our view. It moves China’s bond market several steps closer to being included in global market indices – an event that will have a significant impact on investors in benchmarked fixed-income strategies, as they will have to restructure their portfolios to reflect the indices’ realignment. We’ve estimated that this portfolio readjustment could result in inflows of $2.5tn to China.
在我们看来，中国央行的最新举措是一个重大发展，使中国债市朝着被纳入全球债券市场指数的方向迈出了几步——如果中国债市真的被纳入全球指数，将对参考基准指数的固定收益投资者产生重大影响，因为他们将不得不调整资产组合，以反映指数的重新调整。我们估计这一资产组合调整可能导致2.5万亿美元资金流入中国。
This offers an exciting prospect with huge implications for China’s economy, capital markets and currency; again, however, we need to take a balanced approach to assessing the risks and benefits.
这是一个令人兴奋的前景，对中国经济、资本市场和人民币将有重大影响；不过，一如以往，我们需要全面公允地评估其中的风险和收益。
While our conviction in China’s positive long-term prospects has gained further strength from the PBC’s move, the short-term outlook for China necessarily remains focused on the interplay between the government’s reform agenda, economic reality and market sentiment.
我们相信中国长期前景正面，中国央行最新举措进一步支持了我们的观点。但是中国的短期前景不可避免地仍然囿于政府改革议程、经济现实和市场情绪的相互作用。
For example, a key policy consideration for the PBoC at the moment is the injection of liquidity into the financial system to offset capital outflows and downward pressure on the currency triggered by investor anxiety. To what extent, if at all, will such action weigh on global bond index providers as they consider China’s inclusion in their benchmarks?
比如，中国央行目前的一个关键政策考量是向金融体系注入流动性，以抵消投资者焦虑情绪引发的资本外流和汇率下行压力。在全球债券指数提供商考虑是否把中国市场纳入它们的基准指数之时，中国央行此类举措会不会影响指数提供商的评估，如果会的话，影响有多大？
Such short-term questions persist; China, however, continues to make progress with its long-term policy objectives. Investors, in our view, need to consider both these points in forming a balanced view on China.
这样的短期问题依然存在；然而，中国在其长期政策目标方面继续取得进展。在我们看来，投资者对这两方面都要考虑到，以得出一个全面公允的观点。
