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Tumbling inflation expectations in financial markets are becoming “worrisome”, a Federal Reserve interest-rate setter has warned, highlighting the risks to the inflation outlook posed by sliding energy prices.
美联储(Federal Reserve)一位利率政策制定者警告称，金融市场连连下跌的通胀预期正变得“令人担忧”，此言突显了能源价格下跌对通胀前景构成的风险。
James Bullard, president of the St Louis Federal Reserve, said lower energy prices were a net positive for the US economy but that declines could mean it would take longer than previously expected for headline inflation to return to the central bank’s 2 per cent target.
圣路易斯联储银行(St Louis Federal Reserve)行长詹姆士布拉德(James Bullard，见上图)表示，能源价格下跌给美国经济带来净效益，但它也意味着整体通胀率将需要更久才能回归美联储设定的2%的目标。
His remarks at the Economic Club of Memphis will add to questions over the US interest-rate outlook amid doubts on China’s growth prospects, sharp declines in commodity prices and days of turmoil in global markets. A number of US policymakers have struck a cautious tone this month following the Fed’s landmark quarter-point interest rate increase on December 16.
他在孟菲斯经济学俱乐部(Economic Club of Memphis)的讲话将加大人们对美国利率前景的疑问，目前各方对中国增长前景、大宗商品价格大幅下滑以及全球股市持续多日的动荡已经感到担忧。在美联储去年12月16日历史性地决定加息25个基点后，本月美国多名政策制定者的语气都很谨慎。
While central bankers should normally look through changes in energy prices to gauge the underlying trend in inflation, it would become more problematic if people’s expectations for inflation began to fall, said Mr Bullard, normally viewed as a Fed hawk.
通常被视为美联储鹰派的布拉德表示，虽然央行官员照理在衡量通胀的根本走势时应当看透能源价格的变化，但如果人们的通胀预期开始下降，问题将变得更严重。
Minutes to the December policymakers meeting showed they voiced “significant concern” about low inflation. Divisions within the committee were highlighted as some said their decision to sign up to an increase was a “close call”.
12月的美联储会议纪要显示，利率政策制定者对低通胀表示了“重大关切”。联邦公开市场委员会内部的分歧相当明显，部分委员称最终决定加息是一个“谨慎拿捏的判断”。
While Fed policymakers’ forecasts suggest the central bank is set to lift rates another four times this year in quarter-point increments, traders are betting on fewer increases.
虽然美联储政策制定者的预测表明，美国央行今年准备再加息四次，每次加息25基点，但交易员猜测的加息次数少一些。
“I have argued that market-based measures of inflation expectations have been unduly influenced by the large movements in crude oil prices,” he said. “Nevertheless, with renewed declines in crude.. associated decline in market-based inflation expectations measures is becoming worrisome.”
布拉德说：“我提出，基于市场的通胀预期指标过度受到油价大幅变化的影响。不过，鉴于油价再度下跌……基于市场的通胀预期指标的相应下降正变得令人担忧。”
Low inflation expectations may keep actual inflation lower, making it harder for the Fed to hit its target, Mr Bullard said. Market-based inflation expectations have sagged in tandem with the recovery and sliding energy prices.
布拉德表示，低通胀预期可能让实际通胀更低，令美联储更难达到通胀目标。基于市场的通胀预期随着能源价格的下滑而陷入低迷。
His views will be watched closely as he takes up the position of a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee. Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed president and another voter this year, said on Wednesday that weak oil and commodity prices raised concerns that global growth has “slowed significantly”.
鉴于布拉德将成为联邦公开市场委员会的投票委员，他的观点将受到密切关注。今年的另一名投票委员，波士顿联储(Boston Fed)行长埃里克圠森格伦(Eric Rosengren)在周三表示，油价和大宗商品价格疲软令人担忧全球经济增长“显著放缓”。
