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Until China’s currency joined the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights on Monday the term rarely attracted headlines. This event drew so much attention because many see its inclusion as an acknowledgment of China’s status as a global economic power. The renminbi is the first emerging market currency to be added to the elite basket and the first new one since the SDR’s creation, nearly 50 years ago. For China, it has been a much sought after goal. In financial significance, however, it is still largely symbolic since it will be decades before the renminbi becomes a major international currency.
终于，人民币加入了国际货币基金组织(IMF)的特别提款权(SDR)篮子，在此之前这个术语鲜少成为新闻焦点。此事之所以吸引了众多关注，是因为许多人将此视作对中国作为世界经济大国地位的承认。人民币是这个精英货币篮子纳入的第一个新兴市场货币，也是SDR创立近50年来第一个新成员。加入SDR一直是中国孜孜追求的目标，但它从金融意义来说基本仍是象征性的，人民币要想成为主要国际货币还需要几十年时间。
Including the renminbi in the basket of reserve currencies — to join the dollar, euro, yen and pound — would seem to be an obvious move given’s China’s economic weight in the global economy, and.it might be viewed as a gift from the western financial powers — but it also carries a heavy burden that Beijing may come to regret. Under the qualifying rules a new entrant has to meet two criteria. The candidate must be a major trading nation, which China clearly is. And its currency must be “freely usable”. Initially this was understood to mean “freely convertible or tradable” and if so, the renminbi would not qualify given China’s extensive capital controls. But the IMF came out with the interpretation that it means widely used in international transactions — and this condition was met given its use in trade finance, swap arrangements and currency spot markets.
鉴于中国经济在全球经济中的比重，人民币纳入储备货币篮子——加入美元、欧元、日元和英镑的行列——似乎显得顺理成章，而且这或许可视作西方金融大国送出的一份礼物，但这份礼物也承载着沉重的负担，可能会让北京方面为此后悔。根据IMF的达标规定，新进入者必须满足两个条件。候选者必须是主要贸易大国，这一点中国明显满足。此外候选者的货币必须“可自由使用”。第二条最初被理解成“可自由兑换或交易”，如果照这样解释，人民币就不符合资格，因为中国存在广泛的资本控制。但IMF给出的解释是，“可自由使用”指的是广泛应用于国际交易，鉴于人民币在贸易融资、货币互换以及外汇现汇交易上的使用，第二个条件也满足了。
That the major powers were willing to go along with this might seem surprising given the past practice of dealing firmly with China on global economic concerns, including its adherence to World Trade Organisation guidelines. But it was not really a concession since the ultimate objective was to use SDR inclusion as a means to push for more market reforms, in particular improving the country’s financial markets and eliminating its capital controls.
各大国愿意支持人民币加入SDR似乎有些出人意料，毕竟它们过去在全球经济问题上对中国采取严厉态度，包括要求中国遵守世界贸易组织(WTO)的指导原则。但这并不是真的让步，因为它们的最终目标是以将人民币纳入SDR作为一种手段，以推动中国进行更多市场改革，尤其是改善其国内金融市场，消除其资本管制。
In the interim, the IMF’s principle that the renminbi meet the “freely usable” test will have little impact until the supply of renminbi becomes more available globally. There is little recognition of how difficult it is to make a country’s currency available in the global financial system. The US did this by running huge trade deficits and paying with dollars. It also gave dollars away through its aid programmes. But China will not want to run trade deficits instead of surpluses, nor is it logical for a developing country to give its money away to richer nations. The only other option is for Beijing to open its capital markets more fully to external borrowers so they can buy renminbi. This would be likely to increase volatility and risks for the country’s relatively under-developed and inadequately regulated markets.
在此期间，除非人民币在全球变得更容易获得，否则IMF关于人民币应满足“可自由使用”条件的原则不会产生多大影响。但对于一种货币在全球金融体系中变得容易获得有多么困难，人们还缺乏认识。美国靠背负巨大的贸易逆差，并用美元来支付，才做到了这一点，而且美国还通过援助计划提供美元资金。中国不会想将贸易顺差换成贸易逆差，况且一个发展中国家向较富裕国家捐资本身也不符合逻辑。北京方面剩下的唯一选择就是向外部借款者更加全面地开放资本市场，让他们能购买人民币。对于中国发展程度相对不足、监管不完善的市场来说，这样做很可能会增加波动性及风险。
Promoting the renminbi as a global currency will make it much harder for Beijing to manage its more immediate growth and stabilisation needs. There is a conflict between having it play a role as an international currency — which means a strong and stable one — and the need to allow market forces to set its value in response to cyclical shifts. The leadership cannot have it both ways unless it takes a different approach to managing exchange rate adjustments.
推动人民币发展为一种国际货币，意味着北京方面要满足较近期的增长和稳定需要将困难得多。让人民币扮演国际货币角色——这意味着保持坚挺、稳定——与允许市场力量决定汇率以顺应周期性变化是相冲突的。当局不可能两者兼得，除非采用不同的方法来管理汇率调整。
The major challenge now is to maintain some degree of exchange rate stability while allowing market forces to play a role. China currently appears to be caught in a no man’s land. If Beijing allows the renminbi to depreciate significantly, it would probably be criticised by the US, which still holds the view that it is undervalued. China would also be vulnerable to concerns of its neighbours that it is engaging in competitive devaluations to maintain trade advantages. Yet, by tying its rate to the dollar, the renminbi is seen by most market observers except the US as overvalued, given the massive depreciations of its major Asian trading partners and the likely continued flow of capital abroad as Chinese investors seek to diversify their holdings.
现在的主要挑战是要保持一定程度的汇率稳定，同时允许市场力量发挥作用。中国目前似乎陷入了一个无人区。如果北京方面允许人民币大幅贬值，很可能会受到美国方面批评，美国仍认为人民币的价值被低估了。而且中国还会受到邻国的指责，这些国家会认为中国进行竞争性货币贬值以保持贸易优势。但鉴于人民币汇率与美元的关联性，美国以外的市场观察家大多都认为人民币的价值被高估了，理由包括其亚洲主要贸易伙伴的货币大规模贬值，以及随着中国投资者寻求多样化投资，资本很可能会继续外流。
There is a path, though, that would harmonise the objective of promoting renminbi usage abroad while moving to more market-based movements. That is by focusing more on regional trade and investment patterns. Nearly half of the country’s trade is processing-related — comprising parts and components from other east Asian countries that are assembled in China for export to the west. Currencies of several Asian countries already track the renminbi more closely than the dollar, which means it could be used as a “reference currency”. Asia would generally benefit from greater use of the renminbi to improve trade efficiency and reduce exchange-rate risk in intra-regional trade.
但还是有一种方法，可以既达到扩大人民币在境外使用的目标，同时使人民币转向更加基于市场的波动。这个方法就是把注意力更多放在区域贸易和投资模式上。中国近一半的贸易与加工相关，包括从其他东亚国家进口零部件在中国组装然后销往西方。部分亚洲国家的货币与人民币的紧密性已经超出了与美元的关系，意味着人民币已可以用作“参考货币”(reference currency)。亚洲整体上将受益于人民币的更广泛使用，借此提高贸易效率，降低区域内贸易的汇率风险。
As a reference currency, the renminbi should move more in line with Asian currencies and be unlinked from the US dollar. Some depreciation is thus likely but it should be done through gradual and more flexible exchange rate adjustments rather than being bundled into unexpected large adjustments over a few days. The currency would thus be relatively stable relative to its major Asian trading partners but move more flexibly in relation to the dollar.
作为参考货币，人民币应脱离与美元的密切关联，而与亚洲各国货币的走势更加一致。这可能会造成一些贬值，但应该循序渐进的、通过更灵活的汇率调整来完成，而不是在短短几日内出其不意地仓促进行大规模调整。如此一来，人民币走势相对于中国在亚洲主要贸易伙伴的货币将较为稳定，相对于美元将更加灵活。
Yukon Huang is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and a former World Bank country director for China
黄育川是卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment)高级研究员、世界银行(World Bank)前中国业务局局长
