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Rising wages in the coming years are expected to drive manufacturers away 什om low-value-added sectors, while rising consumption by better-paid Chinese workers will play a bigger role in propelling5 the domestic economy.
预计未来几年里，一方面不断上涨的工资将迫使制造商退出低附加值行业;另 一方面,中国工人在加薪后将扩大消费，在推动国内经济方面发挥更大的作用。
Morgan Stanley has projected that Chinese labour’s share of gross domestic product would rise from its current level of 15 per cent to at least 30 per cent by 2020, reversing the trend of the past decade, in which wage growth has trailed economic expansion.
摩根士丹利预计,到2020年,中国劳动力占国内生产总值的比重，将从目前的 15%上升到至少30%.,扭转过去十年里工资增长落后于经济增长的趋势。
“If wages rise, then the household share of national income must rise. That would be a very beneficial process and that would aid the economic rebalancing,w explains Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, an independent research and advisory firm.
“如果工资上涨,那么国民收入中家庭所占的比重肯定也会上升。这将是一个 非常有益的过程,有助于经济恢复平衡”,独立研究咨询机构龙州经讯的董事总经 理葛艺豪解释道。
Yet some economists fret that tightening labour supplies will lead to slower growth and higher inflation.
但一些经济学家担心，劳动力供应趋紧将导致经济增长减速和通胀抬头。
Mr Jiang estimates that a 5 per cent reduction in the size of China’s unskilled labour force could result in a 2 per cent slowdown in GDP.
蒋庭松估计，中国非熟练劳动力数量若减少5%，可能会造成GDP增速减少两 个百分点。
In China’s labour headaches, some Indians see opportunity. The UN estimates that India’s population will rise by 26 per cent from 1.2bn in 2010 to 1.5bn in 2035，while its labour force will rise by 33 per cent to nearly 1bn.
一些印度人从中国的劳动力困局中看到了机会。联合国估计,到2035年，印度 人口将较2010年增长26%，从12亿人增至15亿人;同期劳动力数量将增长33%，达到 近10f乙人。
By then, Indians of working age 15 to 59 will account for about 65 per cent of the population, making India the world’s largest labour market.
届时，处在工作年龄段(15岁至59岁）的印度人将占到该国总人口的65%左右， 令该国成为全球最大的劳动力市场。
Goldman Sachs says that India’s labour force will grow by 110m people over the next 10 years, the largest addition to the global labour force, which could potentially add 4 percentage points to GDP growth over the next decade.
髙盛表示，未来十年印度的劳动力数量将增加1.1亿人,成为对全球劳动力数 量增长贡献最大的国家;未来十年印度的GDP增速可能由此增加四个百分点。
But what worries many Indian business executives, economists and policymakers is whether the country’s economy can absorb the masses of aspiring workers, mainly from poor rural areas and with tittle or no training. While nearly 13m young Indians are entering the workforce every year, India’s vocational training system has the capacity to train just 3.1m a year. Many young people lack even rudimentary skills.
但令许多印度商界高管、经济学家和政策制定者担心的是，印度经济是否能够消化如此众多渴望成功的工人——这些工人主要来自贫穷的乡下，很少或根本没 有受过培训。印度每年有近1300万年轻人加人劳动力大军，但该国的职业培训体系 每年只能培训310万人。许多印度年轻人甚至缺乏最基本的技能。
“We do not have people who are actually functionally literate,” says Mr Bhandari. “Most of our labour force is inappropriate for the mass manufacturing practices that China has excelled at.”
班达里表示：“我们没有多少真正受过足够多教育的人。我们的劳动力大多不 适合从事中国人擅长的大规模制造业工作。”
