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Volatility is meat and drink for traders; it gives finance directors indigestion. In China there will be more of it.
波动性是交易员们的美餐，却会令财务总监们消化不良。在中国，你会面临越来越大的波动性。
On Monday the People’s Bank of China moved the renminbi trading band higher by half a per cent, after its market value rose sharply on Friday. Following the PBoC move traders decided to weaken the currency a little.
周一，中国央行把人民币汇率中间价调高了约0.5%——此前在上周五，人民币的市场价值曾大幅上扬。中国央行出手之后，交易员们决定把人民币汇率压低一点。
With the authorities a step behind the markets, the evidence is growing that Chinese assets are becoming more responsive to market demand, and less sensitive to policy. Monday’s decision also shows that devaluation is not China’s ultimate goal. Beijing wants a more flexible currency to strengthen its bid for the renminbi to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights, a notional currency that member countries can exchange for hard currencies.
由于当局对市场亦步亦趋，可以说有越来越明显的证据证明，中国资产对市场需求的响应变得更积极，对政策变得不那么敏感。中国央行周一的决定还表明，贬值并非中国的最终目的。北京方面希望人民币汇率具备更大弹性，这样将有助于推动人民币被纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子。SDR是一种名义货币，IMF成员国可用它来兑换硬通货。
The IMF, which may decide on renminbi inclusion this month, says that to be eligible, a currency must be both widely used and freely tradable. China’s renminbi is widely used: last month Swift said the renminbi had overtaken the yen to become the world’s fourth most used currency. And as Monday’s move shows, it is becoming more responsive to the market.
本月，IMF或许会决定把人民币纳入SDR货币篮子。IMF表示，一种货币必须满足广泛使用和可自由交易两个条件，才够格被纳入。目前，人民币已得到广泛的使用：上月环球银行金融电信协会(Swift)表示，人民币已超过日元成为全球第四大支付货币。此外，正如周一的走势所表明的那样，人民币对市场的响应变得更积极。
Inclusion in the SDR basket might strengthen demand for the renminbi as a reserve currency. This would be a relief to companies with high foreign exchange debt, including China Southern and Air China, which were hurt in August when China pushed the renminbi band down 1.9 per cent in one day.
被纳入SDR货币篮子，或许会提高人民币作为储备货币的需求量。这会让那些背负高额外债的企业——包括中国南航(China Southern)和中国国航(Air China)——松一口气。今年8月，中国央行在一日内把人民币汇率中间价调低了1.9%，曾令这类企业受到冲击。
Yet any upward pressure on the renminbi is likely to be shortlived. China’s economy is still slowing, and capital outflows have been rising. HSBC thinks SDR-related inflows — if they happen — will be too slow to make a significant impact. Relief to those companies with mismatched currency exposure will thus be similarly brief.
不过，人民币的上行压力很可能不会持久。中国经济仍在放缓，资本外流一直在增加。汇丰(HSBC)认为，与SDR相关的资本流入——如果发生的话——将会很慢，不足以产生重大影响。因此，那些存在错配外汇敞口的企业所感受到的轻松也会同样短暂。
But betting on a sustained move either way in the renminbi looks unwise. As markets start to lead policy, rather than vice versa, plan for a bumpier ride.
但是，押注人民币持续单边上涨或单边下跌似乎都是不明智的。随着市场开始引领政策、而不是相反，请大家为更颠簸的行程做好准备。
