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The world risks a slide into a fresh financial crisis leading to global recession if governments and policymakers mishandle market stability risks, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)周三警告称，如果各国政府和政策制定者对市场稳定风险应对不当，世界可能陷入一场新的金融危机，导致全球衰退。
José , the fund’s head of financial stability, told the Financial Times that its bad scenario “does not rely on extreme assumptions at all”, merely that risk premiums increase again, corporate defaults rise in emerging economies and there is a worldwide decline in appetite for riskier assets.
IMF负责金融稳定的主管乔斯维纳尔斯(José )对英国《金融时报》表示，IMF的最坏设想“根本不依赖于极端的设想”，而只是风险溢价再度上升、新兴市场的公司违约现象增多，同时全球对风险较高资产的投资意愿下降。
The effects would consign the world to growth rates sufficiently weak to be termed a global recession.
这一局面的后果，可能使世界增速减弱到可被称为全球衰退的地步。
“If we don’t get it right we could set the clock back in terms of growth,” Mr added.
“如果我们应对不当的话，我们可能会在增长方面走回头路，”维纳尔斯接着说。
In its twice-yearly global financial stability report, the IMF simulated the effects of the current financial fragilities in emerging economies turning sour from another shock to confidence or a policy mistake.
IMF在其每半年发布一次的全球金融稳定报告中，模拟了新兴经济体当前的金融脆弱性因又一次信心冲击或政策失误而恶化的后果。
“Shocks may originate in advanced or emerging markets and, combined with unaddressed system vulnerabilities, could lead to a global asset market disruption and a sudden drying up of market liquidity in many asset classes,” the report warned.
“冲击或许会源自发达或新兴市场，再加上未被应对的系统脆弱性，可能引发一场全球资产市场紊乱，以及多个资产类别的市场流动性突然干涸，”该报告警告称。
In these circumstances, spending growth would slow sharply in emerging and advanced economies leading to a shortfall in output of 2.4 per cent by 2017 compared with the baseline IMF forecasts.
在这些情况下，新兴与发达经济体的支出增速将大幅放慢，导致2017年的世界产出较IMF预测的基准低2.4%。
With those forecasts already weak, it would imply global growth would face the strong possibility of falling below 2 per cent for a year, the standard definition of a global recession, although one that would fall short of another crisis on the scale of 2008.
由于预测水平本已很低，这意味着，全球年度增速很可能将低于2%（这是全球衰退的标准定义），尽管它不至于引发跟2008年规模相仿的又一场危机。
“Our central scenario is not a crisis. The downside scenario is not a global crisis but a situation in which we would have significant losses in terms of GDP,” Mr said.
“我们的核心设想并非一场危机。悲观设想并非一场全球危机，而是我们在国内生产总值(GDP)方面遭受显著损失的情形，”维纳尔斯说。
The risks have worse implications than those simulated in the fund’s economic forecasts and highlight the need, he added, for policymakers to address the financial stability weakness in the world.
他补充称，相关风险的影响比IMF在经济预测中模拟得出的影响更严重，突出表明政策制定者有必要应对世界金融稳定方面的薄弱之处。
