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The stock market sell-off is not the problem. Yes, the Shanghai Composite Stock Index has dropped almost 40 per cent since its June peak, but the Chinese economy has rarely been upset by fluctuations of its financial markets. The problem — not a huge one, but a problem nonetheless — is the Chinese economy itself. It requires corrective action from Chinese authorities — not surgery, but acupuncture.
股市抛售不是问题所在。是的，上证综指(Shanghai Composite Stock Index)从6月份的高峰下跌了近40%，但中国经济很少受国内金融市场波动的影响。问题——这不是个很大的问题，但无论如何是个问题——是中国经济本身。它需要中国当局采取矫正措施——不是外科手术，而是针灸。
It is easy to see why markets are unnerved. Trade and exports barely grew in the first half of this year, and in July exports fell significantly. Production of electricity and cement, both of which are consumed locally rather than exported, declined for the first seven months of the year. These signs indicate that the economy is slowing down.
不难看出为何市场感到紧张。今年上半年贸易和出口几乎没有增长，7月份出口大幅下滑。发电量和水泥产量（这两项供当地消费而非出口）在头7个月下降。这些迹象表明经济正在放缓。
Last month, after months of market pressure, the People’s Bank of China introduced a new mechanism for trading the renminbi, which caused its value to fall and triggered worldwide speculation of further devaluation. Yet this will not help China as much as one might expect. Other countries have also devalued, mitigating any potential benefits to Chinese exporters.
7月，在数月的市场压力下，中国央行宣布了新的人民币汇率形成机制，使人民币贬值，并引发了全世界对于人民币将进一步贬值的猜测。然而，此举对中国的帮助不像某些人预期的那么大。其他国家也纷纷贬值，减少了惠及中国出口商的潜在好处。
None of this augurs well for the government’s chances of increasing output per head by 60 per cent by 2021. And China’s economic hiccup is echoing around the world as never before. Share prices from New York to Moscow followed the country down last week, only to bounce back after the PBoC cut interest rates. Developments in China move commodities markets, too.
这些事情不能提高政府到2021年将人均产出提高60%的胜算。而中国的经济问题也前所未有地在世界各地引起反响。上周，从纽约到莫斯科的各地股市随中国股市下跌，在中国央行下调利率后才出现回弹。中国经济形势也左右了大宗商品市场走向。
This is not a beautiful picture for Beijing’s top decision makers, who must also contend with a rate cut expected this year from the US Federal Reserve. But the situation is not grave. Chinese consumers are still hungry for higher living standards, and given a little more disposable income, they are willing to spend. This is not mere speculation; my research has shown that as labour shortages have led to higher wages for blue-collar workers, private consumption has risen as a share of gross domestic product. If the Chinese cared only about economic security they would have squirrelled the money away.
对北京的最高决策者来说，这不是什么美好的画面。此外他们还必须应对美联储(Fed)预计将在今年进行的加息。但形势并不严峻。中国消费者仍然渴望更高的生活水平，只要可支配收入有所增加，他们就愿意进行支出。这不仅仅是推测；我的研究已经表明，由于劳动力短缺导致蓝领劳动者的薪资提高，私人消费占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例有所上升。如果中国人只关注经济安全，他们会把钱存起来。
What China needs is not a vast stimulus like that of 2009, which amounted to 7.5 per cent of GDP then (roughly the trade surplus) and encompassed huge infrastructure projects. It needs a pinprick stimulus targeted at the financial sector. Households and businesses pay some of the world’s highest financing costs — which is ridiculous given the extraordinarily high savings rates.
中国需要的不是像2009年那样包含大型基础设施项目的大规模刺激计划，而是以金融行业为目标，采取“针灸”式刺激。中国家庭和企业支付的融资成本处于世界最高之列——考虑到中国极高的储蓄率，这种情况十分荒谬。
The first element of the acupuncture stimulus is to cut interest rates, allow local governments to borrow for longer periods on the bond markets, and let banks lend more for a given amount of capital. The second is to enable this money to flow into infrastructure investments more quickly, by speeding up the process of land acquisition and implementing engineering blueprints. Local officials often avoid making decisions for fear that they will be accused of corruption. The fears of the upright and hard working must be dispelled.
实施针灸刺激的第一个要素是降息，允许地方政府在债券市场上借入更长时期的债务，并让银行增加一定的放贷量。第二个要素是通过加快征地以及施工进程，让这些钱更快地流入基础设施投资项目。地方官员往往由于担心受到腐败指控而回避决策。必须消除正直与勤勉之人所怀的担忧。
The third “needle” is to encourage private enterprise, by lowering tax rates and implementing the already announced reform of selling off parts of state-owned enterprises to private investors. Outside managers should be brought in on market terms, and allowed much greater autonomy.
第三“针”是通过降低税率、落实此前已宣布的允许私人投资者入股国企的改革，激励民营企业。应按市场条件引入外部管理人员，并给予他们更大的自主权。
Many Chinese citizens have criticised the previous government’s Rmb4tn stimulus package, taking to social media to argue that it did more to save the economies of the west than to benefit China. Academic economists, too, have been sceptical. Their negative memories of the central planning years led to their embrace of neoclassical economic thought, placing more faith in markets than government action.
国内许多人批评上届政府的4万亿人民币经济刺激计划，在社交媒体上表示该计划更多是帮助西方经济脱困而不是中国自己。学院派经济学家也持怀疑态度，对计划经济多年的负面印象使他们倒向新古典经济学思想，他们更相信市场而不是政府行动。
But inactivity on the part of the government would be a grave mistake. The current situation differs from that of the past few years. China’s financial market sell-off is having such a wide global impact. It may well be exacerbated by the actions of the Fed. In these circumstances, voices of concern must be set aside and I believe they will be.
但就政府而言，不采取行动将是大错特错。目前形势不同于过去几年，中国金融市场上的抛售正在全球产生广泛影响，而且美联储的行动很可能会放大这一影响。在这种情况下，必须将各种担忧之声抛在脑后——我也相信将会这样。
