Chinese business sentiment fell sharply in July, suggesting that recent dramatic falls in company share prices had severely dented optimism.
7月份,中国企业信心显著降低,说明近期公司股价大幅下跌严重削弱了企业的乐观情绪。
The MNI China Business Indicator fell 8.8 per cent to 48.8 in July, below the 50 score which marks optimism. The reading matches the April level, which was the lowest since January 2009. In June the index had jumped 7.6 per cent in June to 53.5.
MNI中国企业信心指数(MNI China Business Indicator)在7月下降了8.8,降至48.8,低于50这一分水岭。50以上代表企业对前景持乐观态度。7月份的数字跟4月份相仿,4月份的数字为2009年1月以来的最低值。6月份,该指数曾上升7.6,至53.3。
MNI, a part of Deutsche B爀猀攀 Group, surveys 200 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. It said the overall fall in sentiment outstripped actual recorded declines in production and new orders, suggesting that other factors were at play. The likeliest is the the steep decline in Chinese stock markets, which wipe some $3tn off the market cap of the two exchanges. The weakening also comes in spite of the recent stimulus measures implemented by the People's Bank of China, the central bank, amid deflationary pressures and rising labour and regulation costs.
MNI是德意志交易所集团(Deutsche B爀猀攀 Group)的分支机构,该机构调查了在沪市和深市上市的200家企业。MNI表示,总体信心的下降幅度高于产量和新订单实际录得的降幅,表明还有其他因素在发挥作用。最有可能的因素是中国股市的暴跌,它导致沪深两市总市值蒸发了约3万亿美元。尽管面对通缩压力以及劳动力和监管成本的上升,中国央行近期推出了一些刺激措施,但中国企业信心还是在变弱。
It's not only Chinese businesses feeling pessimistic after the recent market turmoil. A survey of consumer confidence for July just hit a record low.
近期股市动荡之后,感到悲观的不仅仅是中国企业。调查显示,7月份中国消费者信心创下新低。
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China consumer confidence index fell 2.5 per cent this month to 141, the lowest score since the index was created in January 2014.
7月份,澳新银行-罗伊椠根中国消费者信心指数(ANZ-Roy Morgan China consumer confidence index)下降2.5,至141,为2014年1月该指数创建以来的最低水平。
While many economists have said the stock market is divorced from the real economy, which should limit the effect of sharp declines on the real economy, the survey would suggest consumers were spooked.
尽管许多经济学家表示中国股市与实体经济关系不大——这应该会限制股市大跌对实体经济的冲击——但调查表明,消费者受到了惊吓。
Respondents who said it is a 'good time' to buy major items declined to 37.0 per cent, down 4.7 points from June. Those who said it was a 'bad time' to buy edged up to 8 per cent.
表示目前购买大件商品“正逢其时”的受访者比例降低至37%,较6月低了4.7个百分点。表示目前“不适合”购买大件商品的受访者比例升高到了8%。
This could make sense. For even though the percentage of household wealth in the China equity market is low — about 15 per cent of household financial assets are in equities, per HSBC — the full-throttle response to the falling stock market was perceived by many to be panicky. The number of people who lost wealth in the 30 per cent sell-off might be small, in other words, but the damage to Beijing's credibility could have far-reaching effects.
这可能是合乎情理的。原因是,尽管中国家庭只将一小部分财富投入到股市中——汇丰(HSBC)数据显示,股票占中国家庭金融资产的比例约为15%——但许多人认为,政府全力应对股市下跌表明政府对形势感到恐慌。换言之,在股市大跌30%中损失财富的人数或许不多,但中国政府声誉受到的伤害可能有着深远影响。
ANZ's Li-Gang Liu was optimistic that confidence would pick back up, however, as stocks stabilise and the authorities ease further in the months ahead.
然而,澳新银行的刘利刚乐观地认为,随着股市企稳、以及当局在未来几个月里推出更多宽松措施,消费者信心会回升。
"The market correction in the past few weeks should be viewed as a timely warning, allowing share prices to return to a level reflecting their underlying values," he said. "In addition, it offered market participants and regulators an invaluable lesson on risk and rational investing. We believe that the stock market rout has yet to become a systemic risk."
“过去几周的市场回调应被看成一次及时的警告,可使股价回到反映其内在价值的水平。”他说,“另外,它也为市场参与者和监管者上了关于风险和理性投资的宝贵一课。我们认为,此次股市动荡尚未演化为系统性风险。”