评论
打印
The spectacle of Chinese shares in freefall last week gave rise to a sense of schadenfreude among many western observers who remember complacent Chinese statements about the superiority its financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis.
上周中国股市直线下跌的景象让许多西方观察者感到幸灾乐祸，他们还记得，就在全球金融危机爆发后不久，中国曾沾沾自喜地谈到自己的金融体系拥有优越性。
Such satisfaction is understandable. Rarely have regulators and government officials appeared as desperate and out of control as in recent days, with their efforts to slow a bull market becoming a frenzied multi-pronged effort to arrest a plunge they had failed to anticipate.
他们的满足感是可以理解的。监管机构和政府官员的表现很少像近几日这样绝望和失控——原本是想要让牛市放慢脚步，没想到造成了一场暴跌，于是又疯狂地多管齐下托市。
Among the many reasons for falling share prices was the role of shadow banks in providing leverage to investors who were happy to borrow money and bet on ever rising share prices. And while few outside observers made the connection between the shadow banks and this particular source of vulnerability, hadn’t the pundits warned all along that the shadow banks would ultimately come to haunt Beijing?
在股价下跌的众多原因之中，有一个是影子银行的作用。部分投资者想要借钱炒股，押注于股价的不断上升，影子银行向他们提供了杠杆。尽管没几个外部观察人士将影子银行和这一具体的脆弱性来源联系到一起，但专家们不是一直警告称北京方面最终会被影子银行反噬？
One big bank chief executive has referred to “China’s Roadrunner moment” — when, like Wile E Coyote, the cartoon bird’s ill-fated pursuer, the economy realises that, having run off the edge of a cliff, the ground no longer supports it, and it falls. But this is not a Roadrunner moment just for China.
一家大银行的首席执行官称这次股市暴跌为“中国的BB鸟(Roadrunner)时刻” （意思是就像那部卡通片里追赶BB鸟的倒霉的歪心狼(Coyote)一样，中国在冲出悬崖之后，才发现脚底踩空，自己已开始向下坠落，然而为时已晚），但这个“BB鸟时刻”并不只是中国的。
In a world where linkages between financial markets are ever closer, and any big lurch quickly travels, the ripple effects of the drop in Chinese shares will probably have lasting consequences across a range of markets, including credit, currencies, commodities and Treasuries, and will influence the fortunes of foreign companies in China.
在各个金融市场联系日益紧密、一个市场打个踉跄就会迅速传导到其他市场的当今世界，中国股市下跌的涟漪效应很可能会对外汇、大宗商品、信贷和国债等一系列市场造成持久影响，而且还会影响到在华外企的命运。
Moreover China’s economy was already slowing, albeit off a much larger base than in the past. That means China will create less foreign exchange reserves, and fewer dollars to circulate back to the rest of the world.
此外，中国股市下滑之际，中国经济已然在放缓，虽然它现在的基数比过去大得多。这意味着中国的外汇储备增速会变慢，产生的重新流向其他国家的美元也会减少。
At the same time the government has to spend more money nurturing the domestic economy and making sure stock market chaos does not lead to riots in the streets, as it has in the past. The combination of a slowing economy and more claims on existing reserves to fill holes in balance sheets may reduce official flows to such external destinations as the US Treasury market.
与此同时，中国政府必须投入更多资金扶植国内经济，并确保股市的混乱不会像过去那样引发街头骚乱。经济放缓，加上需动用更多现有储备填补国内企业和个人的资产负债表窟窿，可能意味着流向美国国债市场等外部目的地的官方储备资金会减少。
The drop in share prices is especially bad news for the numerous companies that hoped to reduce their debts, either by issuing shares or by making windfall profits through canny investments in the market — often, alas, with borrowed money. Now their debts are even bigger, and if they borrowed in dollars and have few dollar revenues, their creditors in the Asian dollar bond market have good reason for concern.
股价下跌对于大量希望减少自身债务的公司尤其是坏消息，不论它们是希望通过发行股票，还是通过在股市投机发一笔横财——唉，通常都是用借来的钱——来实现这一目的。现在，它们的债务变得更加庞大，如果它们借的是美元而又没有多少美元收入，它们在亚洲美元债券市场的债权人就有充分理由要担忧了。
In addition Chinese demand — which fed the coffers of everyone from iron ore miners in Australia to carmakers headquartered in the US — was softening even before the setback. Iron ore prices have fallen 20 per cent in the past week alone, largely on downward revisions of demand from the mainland. The latest data (which do not reflect the turbulence of the past 10 days) show Chinese retail sales weakening, while demand for cars (9 per cent of that) declined sharply, “taking away the final growth engine”, says Credit Suisse. In recent months officials fretted openly that the currency was too strong, as the renminbi rose in tandem with the dollar and capital outflows, a feature of much of last year, dwindled.
此外，使众多企业（从澳大利亚铁矿石生产商到总部位于美国的汽车制造商）腰包变鼓的中国需求甚至在此番暴跌之前就开始疲软了。仅过去一周，铁矿石价格就下跌了20%，主要原因在于中国内地铁矿石需求量下调。瑞信(Credit Suisse)表示，（不含过去10天的）最新数据显示，中国零售总额增长疲软，而（占零售总额9%的）汽车的需求大幅下降，“最后这个增长引擎也没有了”。最近几个月，人民币随着美元一起升值，资本外流（去年大多数时间的主要特征）减少，官员们公开抱怨称，人民币走势过强。
Export prospects also appeared shakier in the face of a cheaper yen and cheaper euro. Now, though, after a 30 per cent fall in the stock market, and interest rate and reserve ratio cuts to support share prices in response, the renminbi is under downward pressure instead.
面对贬值的日元和欧元，中国出口前景也似乎也不稳定。不过，在股市下跌30%，政府降低利率和存款准备金率来支撑股价之后，人民币正面临下行压力。
In a world where trade is almost flat, any fall in the value of the renminbi is likely to put further pressure on countries in both East Asia and Southeast Asia that already face slowing growth and large drops in monthly exports. By the end of last week regulators were excoriating short sellers and foreign funds, and grilling foreign brokers on their futures activities.
在一个贸易几乎没有增长的世界，人民币任何幅度的贬值，都可能给已然面临经济增长放缓和月出口大幅下滑的东亚及东南亚国家造成进一步压力。截至上周末，监管机构一直在指责卖空者和外国基金，并严查外国券商的期货行为。
To turn the tumultuous stock market ride into something simple misses the point — as do the naysayers. Its consequences are likely to be painful both on the mainland and beyond its borders for a while to come.
将股市的大起大落归结于某种简单的东西并未抓住要害——唱反调的人亦是如此。股市大起大落的后果很可能在未来一段时期对国内和国外都造成痛苦。
