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Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of Greece caused a major uproar on Saturday when he announced a national referendum on the package of austerity reforms that the country’s creditors are demanding. The referendum, which is scheduled for next Sunday, is now a source of deep uncertainty, with Greeks lining up outside of ATMs to withdraw whatever euros they can, while the whole country is teetering on the brink of financial free-fall. Leaders across the globe, including President Obama, have expressed deep concern about the possibility of Greece dropping out of the 19-member eurozone, and already the markets have plummeted as a response.
希腊总理亚历克西斯·齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)上周六的决定引起一片哗然，他宣布举行全民公投，来决定该国是否开展债权人要求的一揽子财政紧缩改革。定于周日举行的公投如今成了巨大的不确定性的来源，希腊人在ATM机前排队，尽其所能取出一些欧元现金，而整个国家正在悬崖边踉踉跄跄，经济很可能会一落千丈。全球各国的领导人，包括奥巴马总统在内，都对希腊脱离由19个成员国组成的欧元区的可能性，表达了深切的担忧。
Many believe that the Greeks have grown so wary of spending cuts and tax increases, which successive governments have adopted in return for a series of bailouts, that they would be bound to reject any kind of new austerity package, no matter its merit. Mr. Tsipras seemed to align himself with this view when he called on his country to say a “big ‘no’ to the ultimatum.” Tens of thousands of Greeks swarmed the streets of Athens on Monday night to voice their support for this resolute stand.
很多人都认为，为了赢得一系列救援资金，历届政府都采纳了开支削减和增税的政策，希腊人已经厌倦了这一切，所以他们肯定会回绝任何新的紧缩方案，无论多么有益。齐普拉斯呼吁举国上下“对最后通牒说一个大大的不”，这一言论似乎与上面的看法相一致。周一晚间，成千上万的希腊民众涌向雅典街头，对这种决绝的立场表达支持。
Yet to reject the proposed deal is bound to have momentous implications, first and foremost Greece’s likely exit from the eurozone. Others thus maintain that Greeks would be open to a deal — even one that would include painful provisions — but that they are deeply apprehensive about specific aspects of the reforms and spending cuts that the country’s creditors are calling for. Mr. Tsipras has announced that he would honor the result of the referendum “whatever it is.”
然而回绝提出的方案肯定会有重大的影响，最首要的就是希腊可能会脱离欧元区。于是，其他人坚持希腊应当对方案持开放态度，即使其中包括令人痛苦的条款。但是他们对债权人要求的具体改革举措和开支削减举动，却怀有深深的担忧。齐普拉斯宣布，他会尊重公投的结果，“无论是什么结果”。
How to know which of these views more accurately reflects Greece’s position? The answer may determine whether the impending crisis can be averted.
怎样才能知道，上述哪种观点能更准确地反映希腊的立场？答案可能会告诉我们，能否避免即将到来的危机。
Last month we and two colleagues, Kirk C. Bansak of Stanford University and Michael M. Bechtel of the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland, surveyed a national sample of 2,000 Greek voters. We showed them a series of possible austerity packages and asked them if they would vote in favor of the package if it were put to a referendum. Each respondent was presented with a slightly different version of tax increases and spending cuts, to gauge whether there were subtle conclusions about Greek public opinion that have until now gone unnoticed. The findings are surprising and indicative of how this referendum could shape up.
上个月，我们和两位同事，斯坦福大学的柯克·C·班萨克(Kirk C. Bansak)以及瑞士圣加仑大学(University of St. Gallen)的迈克尔·M·柏克德(Michael M. Bechtel)对希腊各地的2000名选民进行了调查。我们向他们展示了一系列可能的紧缩方案，并询问他们，如果这套方案付诸公投，他们是否会投赞成票。我们向每位受访者展示的增税和削减开支的方案略有不同，试图以此判断关于希腊民意，是不是有一些微妙的论断直到现在都没有受到关注。我们得出的发现令人惊讶，也有助于了解这次公投可能会如何推进。
Despite all the talk of a sweeping “big ‘no”’ to austerity, we found that only a fifth of the public was “fundamentally opposed” to it and would vote down any proposal that we put forth to a vote. These voters are not demographically or socioeconomically distinctive from the rest, but they disproportionately identify with the far left. Less surprising, perhaps, only a very small number of voters said they were in favor of a deal with Europe no matter what and were willing to back any package that would be put on the table.
尽管很多人都在谈，对紧缩政策彻底地回答一个“大大的不”，但我们发现，只有五分之一的公众对它持“根本性的反对态度”，对我们提出的任何方案都会投票反对。这部分选民在人口特征和社会经济特征上，与其余选民没有多大区别，然而他们认同极左翼的比例，高得超乎寻常。或许最不令人惊讶的一点是，只有极少数选民表示，他们无论如何都会支持与欧盟达成妥协，愿意支持他们提出的任何方案。
The battle on passing a referendum, therefore, will depend on the rest of the electorate — the roughly three of every four voters who are open to at least some of the packages under proposal. Passing the referendum would require just over 60 percent of these votes, a tough but not insurmountable outcome.
因此，公投的战斗，取决于剩下的那些选民。有大约四分之三的选民，至少愿意接受提议的方案中的某些内容。公投获得通过需要这些选民中的60%投赞成票，取得这个结果很难，但并非绝无可能。
Less than half of the austerity scenarios with which the voters were presented gained such a majority, suggesting that there are some austerity conditions that are just too hard for the general public to stomach. These primarily included cuts in pensions and in education spending. For example, adding a 15 percent pension cut to an austerity proposal would cause public support to drop by about 7 percentage points (and a 35 percent pension cut would shrink public support by almost 15 percentage points).
我们向选民展示的紧缩安排中，有不到半数赢得了这样的多数支持，这表明某些财政紧缩的条件过于严苛，令公众无法接受。其中主要包括退休金和教育开支的削减。例如，在一项紧缩方案中加入削减退休金15%的主张，公众支持就会降低7个百分点。削减退休金35%，几乎会令公众支持率降低15个百分点。
Sensitive to this concern, the government’s proposal has avoided direct cuts to pensions, and has instead offered to place limits on early retirement and to raise employers’ social security contributions. And yet the austerity package demanded by Greece’s main creditors — the European Commission, the European Central Bank and particularly the International Monetary Fund — includes substantial demands for new pension cuts, all but guaranteeing that such a proposal will face fierce opposition in a referendum.
政府对这种担忧很敏感，所以在提议中避免了直接削减退休金的做法，而是提出对提早退休作出限制，同时提高雇主社会保障金的缴纳额。然而希腊的主要债权人——欧盟委员会(European Commission)、欧洲央行(European Central Bank)，尤其是国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)——提出的方案中，包括再一次削减退休金的重要要求。如此一来，这样的提议几乎肯定会在公投中面对激烈的反对。
Contrary to widespread perceptions, though, we found that Greeks are open to some spending cuts — even substantial ones — such as laying off public sector workers and reducing the country’s defense spending. Not only that, but such measures could potentially increase support for an austerity package, suggesting that the public has accepted the creditors’ warnings about Greece’s massive deficit.
然而，与普遍的观念相反，我们发现希腊人愿意接受某些削减开支的动作，即使是实质性的削减。比如裁汰公共部门员工、减少该国的国防开支。不仅如此，这样的举措还有可能提升公众对紧缩方案的支持，这表明公众接受了债权人对希腊巨额赤字的警告。
Even when it comes to tax increases — typically seen as a political taboo — opposition is not uniform. We found, for example, that Greeks are strongly opposed to increases in the marginal income tax, but are much more open to increases in both the sales tax and corporate tax. Perhaps heeding this sentiment, the most recent Greek proposal focused on increases in those two taxes, including a substantial increase in the value-added (consumption) tax, a large increase in corporate tax rates and a one-off levy on corporate profits above 500 million euros. However, the Eurogroup — which includes the 19 finance ministers of the eurozone countries — has rejected the proposed increase in corporate taxes, saying it would hurt business and hamper growth.
即使谈到增税，反对立场也并不是整齐划一的，而增税通常被认为是一个政治上的禁忌。例如，我们发现希腊人强烈反对提高边际所得税率，然而对提高消费税和企业所得税态度却开放许多。或许是考虑了这种情绪，希腊政府最近的提议注重于提高这两种税收，包括大幅提高增值税（消费税）、大幅提高企业所得税率，同时对超过5亿欧元的企业利润加征一次性附加税。与此同时，欧元区19国财政部长组成的欧元集团(Eurogroup)，却回绝了提高企业所得税的提议，称那样做会损害商业活动，抑制增长。
Greeks do not unconditionally reject austerity measures. Rather, a majority of the Greek public appears willing to vote in favor of a package that would include both spending cuts and painful tax increases, as long some areas — pensions, education and marginal income tax rates — are largely untouched.
希腊人并不是无条件地反对紧缩举措。实际上，大部分希腊公众似乎都愿意投票支持一个既削减开支、又采取痛苦的增税举动的方案，只要某些领域——退休金、教育、边际所得税率——大体上不受影响。
If the Eurogroup is serious about reaching a deal with Greece that not only addresses the objective of deficit reduction but would also be politically viable, it should take these findings to heart. “Europe only succeeds if we work together,” Chancellor Angela Merkel once said. Austerity is a bitter pill, but by knowing where to push and where to hold off, it just might be one the Greeks would be willing to swallow.
如果欧元集团是认真地要与希腊达成一项妥协，不仅能实现削减赤字的目标，同时又有政治可行性，就必须认真考虑上述的发现。“只有通力合作，欧洲才能成功，”德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)曾经说。紧缩是一剂苦药，但如果明白哪里可以用力，哪里需要克制，希腊人或许愿意吞下这剂苦药。
