When China’s economic output eventually surpasses America’s some time in the next decade, it will be the first time since the reign of George III that the world’s largest economy belongs to a country that is not western, not English-speaking and not a liberal democratic state. Yet, in the asymmetric world that is emerging, the US will remain the dominant military force. The fulcrums of economic and military power are separating. Can these changes in the distribution of power occur peacefully?
在下一个十年，当中国的经济产量最终超越美国的那一天，将是自英王乔治三世(George III)统治时期以来，首次出现世界最大经济体的桂冠归属于一个非西方、非以英语为母语、且非自由民主制的国家。不过，在即将出现的不均衡世界中，美国将仍是主导性的军事力量。经济实力与军事力量的支点正逐渐分开。权力分配的改变能否和平地实现？
It will be difficult. In Beijing’s eyes, the US is deeply opposed to China’s rise. A document circulated among the Communist party leadership last year summed up the consensus view. American strategy towards China, it said, had five objectives: to isolate the country, contain it, diminish it, divide it and sabotage its political leadership.
这将颇为困难。在北京方面看来，美国极力反对中国崛起。去年在共产党领导层内传阅的一份文件总结出了这点共识。文件称，美国对华策略有5个目标：孤立中国、遏制中国、削弱中国、分裂中国并破坏其政治领导。
These conclusions sound strange to a western audience. They reflect the conviction of Communist party leaders that the US has not, and never will, accept the political legitimacy of the administration in Beijing because it is not a liberal democracy. They also reflect the Chinese view that the US will never willingly cede its status as the pre-eminent power in Asia and the world.
在西方民众听来，这些结论很奇怪。它们反映出共产党领导人确信一点：美国尚未、也永远不会接受北京当局的政治合法性，因为它并非自由民主制。这些结论还反映出中国人的看法，即美国永远也不愿意放弃其在亚洲乃至世界的超级大国地位。
For America, rising China is no longer business as usual. Instead, the US sees a rival that is growing in strength and competing for political, diplomatic and security policy space in Asia. On this view, Beijing’s long-term policy is aimed at pushing the US out of Asia altogether and establishing a Chinese sphere of influence spanning the region.
对美国来说，崛起的中国今非昔比。相反，美国把中国视为一个实力不断增加、正与美国争夺在亚洲的政治、外交及安全政策空间的竞争对手。据此看来，北京方面的长期政策旨在将美国完全逐出亚洲，并打造一个覆盖整个地区的中国势力圈。
评论
打印
