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Oil prices fell to six-year lows on Monday in the face of concerns that a glut in the United States was outpacing already-brimming storage facilities.
周一，油价降到了六年来最低值。人们担心美国本已盈满的石油储备设施无法跟上石油供过于求的幅度。
Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries published a report suggesting that the cartel remained reluctant to intervene to prop up prices.
此外，石油输出国组织（Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries，简称OPEC）发布了一篇报告，表示该组织仍不愿意插手干预，抬高油价。
The direction of oil prices, which had risen sharply from January lows, has fallen back in recent days. Traders are now focused on the second quarter of the year, when demand for oil is traditionally weak because of the end of winter and scheduled refinery shutdowns for maintenance.
从1月的低点已经出现大幅度抬升的油价，近日又出现了跌落趋势。交易者目前把重点放在了今年第二季度。届时由于冬季结束，再加上炼油厂往往会停产维护，石油的需求量一般会比较低。
On Monday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the main United States benchmark, fell about 2 percent to about $44 a barrel, a six-year low, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell by about 2 percent to about $53 a barrel.
周一，美国主要油价基准美国西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)的价格下跌了约2%，降至每桶约44美元（约合275元人民币）——六年来最低值；而传统基准布伦特原油(Brent Crude)的价格则下跌了约2%，降至每桶约53美元。
Oil markets continue to focus on OPEC because its members could quickly alter the markets’ balance by cutting production. But while some members, including Nigeria and Venezuela, would like to see cuts, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies show little inclination to change the policy they agreed to in the fall: Protect market share regardless of what happens to prices.
石油市场仍然把注意力放在OPEC上，因为其成员能通过减少产出，迅速改变市场的平衡。不过，虽然尼日利亚和委内瑞拉等成员国希望能减少产出，沙特阿拉伯及其在海湾地区的盟友却不太愿意改变他们在秋天达成的政策：不管油价如何，都要保护市场份额。
While OPEC’s competence at managing the market was always much in question, the organization’s decision to stay on the sidelines has opened the way for volatile price movements.
尽管人们对OPEC是否有能力管理市场仍然存在诸多疑问，但该组织不插手干预的决定，却为不稳定的价格浮动开辟了道路。
In the view of market participants, OPEC’s role as the swing producer has moved to the United States and, in particular, to the producers of oil from shale rock. These companies have helped increase American production by more than four million barrels a day since 2009, far more than the combined increases in the rest of the world.
在市场参与者看来，OPEC生产调节者的角色已经转移到了美国，尤其是转移到了页岩油生产商身上。自2009年以来，这些企业把美国的日生产量提高了超过400万桶，远远超过了世界其他地区的增量总和。
Many analysts say that with low prices discouraging investment in drilling, production growth in the United States will level off and even begin to decline. But when this change will happen is a matter of speculation.
许多分析人士都表示，低价会阻止人们投资开采，美国生产量的增长将趋于平稳状态，甚至开始下跌。但是，目前仍不能确定这种变化将于何时到来。
A group of oil companies working in Texas and North Dakota and elsewhere is far different from the gatherings of OPEC oil ministers that decide whether to cut or increase supply at meetings in Vienna.
在德克萨斯州、北达科他州等地工作的油企团体，与OPEC石油部长的会面迥然不同。后者会在维也纳的会议上决定减少或增加供应量。
“A new math for oil has emerged,” said Bhushan Bahree, an analyst at IHS Energy, a business information company in Washington. “The new math is the mix of variables that shape the pace and level of U.S. oil production as well as investment in high-cost sources of supply.”
“石油行业出现了一个新的算式，”华盛顿商业信息公司IHS能源(IHS Energy)分析师布尚·巴里(Bhushan Bahree)说。“组成这个算式的变量包括美国石油生产的速度与水平，以及对高成本供货源的投资。
Mr. Bahree said that while the market was trying to find a new equilibrium, “it is likely to flounder in the search for a new price range.”
巴里表示，虽然市场试图找到一个新的平衡，“在寻找新的价格区间的过程中可能会陷入困境。”
OPEC made its own guess about when production might begin declining in the United States in its monthly oil report, published on Monday. Asserting that the output of a typical shale well can fall by 60 percent annually and noting the continued decline in the number of drilling rigs operating in the United States, OPEC suggested that “a drop in production can be expected to follow, possibly by late 2015.”
OPEC在周一公布的每月石油报告中，对美国石油产量何时开始下降提出猜想。OPEC声称，一个典型的页岩油油井的产量一年会下降60%，并指出在美国作业的钻探设备的数量会继续减少，该组织表示，“可以预计产量会跟着下降，这种情况可能会持续到2015年晚些时候。”
While that might seem like encouraging news to oil producers, it also means that OPEC, or at least Saudi Arabia, may be in no hurry to cut production at the group’s next meeting, in June.
虽然对于石油生产商来说，这可能看起来是鼓舞人心的消息，但这还意味着OPEC——或至少沙特阿拉伯——可能不急于在6月该组织召开会议时减少产量。
The Saudis argue that over time, economics will work in their favor because their oil costs a few dollars a barrel to produce, while oil from shale, deepwater wells and Canadian oil sands is much more expensive. The Saudis also contend that any move to prop up prices now will encourage more investment in production in the United States and elsewhere.
沙特阿拉伯人认为，久而久之，经济发展状况将对他们有利，因为他们每桶石油的生产成本只有几美元，而通过页岩、深水井及加拿大油砂获取的石油要贵得多。沙特人还辩称，现在任何推高价格的举动都会鼓励加大对美国及任何地方石油生产的投资。
In a speech on Sunday in Doha, Qatar, Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser to the Saudi oil minister, also seemed to counsel patience. “We have a long-term view, and we do not make knee-jerk reactions to headlines,” he said, according to a text of his speech.
演讲文稿显示，周日在卡塔尔多哈发表演讲时，沙特阿拉伯石油部长的顾问易卜拉欣·穆汉纳(Ibrahim al-Muhanna)似乎建议保持耐心。“我们选择从长计议，不会不经思考地对一些重要新闻做出反应。”
Mr. al-Muhanna said he was confident that demand from a strong global economy would prove sufficient to soak up supplies and that “prices will firm up.”
穆汉纳表示，他相信全球经济的强劲发展带来的需求足以消化供应，“价格会回升”。
OPEC’s report on Monday was less sanguine. The group forecast that demand for its crude would average about 29.2 million barrels a day in 2015. That is about 800,000 barrels a day less than OPEC said it was producing in February.
OPEC在周一公布的报告并不乐观。该组织预测，2015年原油需求量平均会达到每天2920万桶。这比OPEC报告的2月份的日产量少了大约80万桶。
