评论
打印
China’s economy is slowing at a much sharper rate than previously thought, according to a raft of data out Tuesday.
周二公布的一系列数据显示，中国经济放缓的幅度远远超过之前预期的水平。
Figures for industrial production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets in the first two months of the year all fell well short of market expectations, prompting fresh speculation that Beijing will have to resort to more stimulus measures to meet what is already its most modest growth target in over 20 years.
今年前两个月，中国的工业产值、零售销售额和固定资产投资增速都远低于市场预期。这引发了对当局将出台更多刺激措施的猜测，政府或将不得不动用这些手段来实现经济增长目标，尽管该目标已经降至二十多年来的最低点。
The slowdown in China is widely seen as one of the biggest threats to the world economy this year, with the Federal Reserve also singling it out as a particular risk to the U.S. recovery.
外界普遍认为，中国经济放缓是今年全球经济面临的最大威胁之一。美联储也将其视为美国经济复苏的特定风险之一。
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial output in January and February was up only 6.8% from a year earlier, the slowest since the trough of the 2009 downturn, and clearly below the 7.8% rate forecast by economists. At the same time, the rate of growth in investment in fixed assets fell to 13.9% from 15.7% in December.
据中国国家统计局公布，今年1-2月份国内工业总产值同比仅增长6.8%，这是2009年中国经济触底以来的最低增速，而且明显低于经济学家预测的7.8%。同时，固定资产投资增速也从2014年12月的15.7%降至13.9%。
China bundles many of its data for the first two months of the year in order to smooth out the effect of the Lunar New Year holiday, which can fall in either month.
为了减轻春节假期对数据带来的影响，中国政府会把每年前两个月的多项经济数据合并后公布。
Government officials have been generally sanguine about signs of slowing industrial growth, as it’s in line with their longer-term strategy of re-orienting the economy more to domestic consumption and services.
政府官员对于工业增长放缓的迹象普遍持乐观态度，因为这和中国的长期战略一致——让经济增长更倚重于国内消费和服务业的拉动。
But the figures showed that consumption, too, is slowing appreciably–albeit to rates that developed economies would consider alarmingly high. Retail sales grew 10.7% on the year, down from a rate of 11.9% in December.
但周二公布的数据表明，消费增速也明显下滑。尽管相对于发达经济体来说，这样的增长水平依然非常高。今年1-2月份，中国社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.7%，低于去年12月的11.9%。
For the moment, the services sector is still creating more than enough jobs to offset labor-shedding in a manufacturing sector that is bearing the brunt of the slowdown. However, the newspaper China News Tuesday quoted China’s Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Yin Weimin as saying that the government’s employment goals will be “difficult to achieve” if the slowdown continues.
目前，服务业创造的就业机会仍足以抵消制造业裁员的影响，经济滑坡给后者带来的冲击最大。不过，中新社周二报道，中国人力资源和社会保障部部长尹蔚民表示，如果经济继续放缓，要完成政府的就业目标“任务十分艰巨”。
Such comments have raised the expectation of more stimulus, due to Beijing’s increasing focus on employment levels. Analysts at ANZ bank in Hong Kong note that around 15 million students will graduate from vocation, technical or middle schools this year, with many more migrating from rural areas to cities in search of work.
由于政府日益重视就业水平，这样的表态抬高了外界对更多刺激措施的预期。澳新银行驻香港分析师指出，包括中专、技校和初中高中毕业生在内，今年中国城镇新增劳动力将达到1500万人，进城务工人员的数量也将大幅上升。
Last week, China joined the swelling ranks of those countries that have relaxed monetary policy to support growth. The central bank cut its reserve requirement ratio for large banks by 0.50 percent to 19.5%, freeing up some 600 billion yuan ($96 billion) for the banks to deploy. It has also cut official interest rates twice in three months, although official rates don’t have quite the same impact in China as they do in developed markets, owing to the way financial markets are regulated.
越来越多的国家都已通过放松货币政策来支持经济增长。上周，中国也加入了这一行列。中国央行将存款准备金率下调0.5个百分点至19.5%，从而为银行提供了6000亿元人民币（约合960亿美元）可用资金。该行还在三个月内两次下调基准利率，只是受中国的金融市场监管方式影响，基准利率在中国的作用和发达国家不完全一样。
