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Countries are not companies (unless they are Apple, considerably bigger on some measures than many sovereign states). But stripped to the basics, they have some similar characteristics. So if China and India were companies, what sort might they be?
国家不是企业（除非是苹果(Apple)这种在一些方面比很多主权国家都大得多的公司）。但是从本质上讲，它们都有一些相同的特点。那么，如果把中国和印度比作公司的话，它们分别是哪种类型？
China Corp, once a racy growth stock, attracted dollars eager to take part in its anticipated rise. Broadly, this panned out as expected — and, arguably, better. Up until this decade, China Corp tended to deliver positive profit warnings as GDP and fixed asset investment accelerated.
“中国公司”曾经是一支富有活力的增长股，吸引了不少渴望从其预期上涨中分一杯羹的美元资金。大体来讲，结果符合预期，甚至比预期更好。长期以来，“中国公司”往往发出正面的盈利预告，因为直到这个十年前，它的GDP及固定资产投资不断加速增长。
This phase is past. In recent years, GDP growth targets have been falling; profit warnings have turned negative. The latest forecast for this year is “about” 7 per cent, down from last year’s target of 7.5 per cent. And even that lower target may be missed. Yesterday, economic figures including retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment all came in uncomfortably below forecasts.
这个阶段已然过去。最近几年，GDP增长目标一再下调；正面盈利预告已经转为负面预警。最新预测是今年经济增幅只有7%“左右”，低于去年7.5%的目标。而即便下调后的目标也可能无法达到。昨天公布的零售销售额、工业产值及固定资产投资等经济数据皆逊于预期，这令人不安。
By contrast, India Inc is making a comeback after a disappointing decade. The country’s 1.3bn people, favourable demographics and under-developed economy make it the land of opportunity. We may have heard this before but a new chief executive (Narendra Modi, prime minister) has inspired new hope. GDP growth has been revised up, and has room to surprise if more restructuring occurs. Not everything is rosy — infrastructure is a challenge and reform is slow — but India Inc’s room to make small changes which have a large impact contrasts favourably with China Corp. The latter’s management seems flummoxed by the challenges to its model.
相比之下，在经历了令人失望的十年后，“印度公司”正东山再起。该国13亿人口、更有优势的人口结构以及欠发达的经济使之成为一块机遇之地。我们以前也许听到过这种说法，但是该公司新任首席执行官（总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)）给人们带来了新的希望。GDP增长率被上修，如果实施更多结构性改革，未来还有令人惊喜的空间。印度也并非一切如意——基础设施建设构成挑战，改革步伐缓慢——但是“印度公司”进行小改变就可能带来大影响，与“中国公司”相比胜上一筹。“中国公司”的管理似乎因其发展模式面临的挑战而变得混乱。
Maybe this is in the price. MSCI’s India index trades on 16 times next year’s earnings; China on nine times. India is forecast to grow by 17 per cent, with China at 13. Not such a vast difference in growth, perhaps, to warrant such valuation disparity. But in a world where growth is scarce, small differences are worth a lot. Upgrades are worth even more.
这种差异或许就反映在了价格上。摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)印度指数目前所处的水平为其明年盈利的16倍，而中国为9倍。按照市场这种预期，印度将增长17%，而中国将增长13%。也许，两家公司的增长率并不会有如此大差异来保证这样的估值差距。但是在如今这个增长稀缺的世界，小差距也有重大意义。评级上调的价值就更大了。
