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In a world convulsed by the rising US dollar, the renminbi looks like a haven.
在这个被美元升值搅得天翻地覆的世界里，人民币看起来就像一个避风港。
The Chinese currency has slipped just under 1 per cent against the dollar this year, a mere rounding error compared with the Brazilian real’s 14 per cent tumble and the euro’s 12 per cent slide.
今年，人民币兑美元汇率仅仅下滑了不到1%，与巴西雷亚尔14%的跌幅和欧元12%的下滑幅度相比，降幅只能算零头。
But for a currency long seen as lacking a reverse gear, a recent drop to a 28-month low is nonetheless gaining attention, with some predicting far more severe problems down the road.
不过，由于人民币长期被视为没有“倒车档”（只升不降），因此当人民币汇率跌至28个月内低点时，还是引起了极大关注。一些人预计，更严重的问题即将发生。
Expectations of more depreciation are becoming firmly entrenched, even after China posted record trade surpluses in January and February. Such surpluses typically result in upward pressure on the renminbi, as exporters convert their dollar earnings into the local currency.
尽管今年1月和2月中国公布了创纪录的贸易顺差，对于人民币会进一步贬值的预期还是在被更多人接受。而在往常，这种贸易顺差通常会为人民币带来上行压力，因为出口商会将其美元收益兑换成本国货币。
The current slide is not a re-run of last year’s brief, unforeseen dip. Exactly a year ago, the People’s Bank of China appeared to engineer a weaker renminbi, which analysts said was designed to spook currency speculators with leveraged bets on one-way appreciation.
人民币汇率目前的下滑，并非去年出人意料的短暂下跌行情的重演。就在整整一年以前，中国央行(PBoC)似曾导演过一次人民币走弱行情。分析师表示，当时的举措旨在吓阻以杠杆方式单向押注人民币升值的投机者。
Having shaken the trees for a couple of months, the central bank then stood back as the currency rebounded over the summer, returning to its decade-long upward path.
在如此操作了几个月之后，中国央行在去年夏天撤出，任由人民币反弹，重返其持续了十年之久的上行路线。
But since late October, the renminbi has been falling again, losing 2.2 per cent against the dollar. This time the move seems driven by the market, not the PBoC, meaning that few expect any imminent change in course. Some analysts expect the trend to accelerate.
然而，自10月底以来，人民币汇率再次出现下跌，兑美元汇率跌去了2.2%。这一次的行情似乎是市场驱动而不是央行推动的。也就是说，几乎没人认为人民币的走向会立刻发生改变，部分分析师甚至预计这一趋势还会加速。
Kevin Lai, chief Asia economist at Daiwa Securities, sees serious trouble brewing as the multiyear carry trade of borrowing cheaply in US dollars and investing in China comes to a bumpy end. He estimates that Chinese companies have borrowed more than $2tn over the past few years, much of it used for currency speculation — a gamble that will no longer pay off once the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
大和证券(Daiwa Securities)首席亚洲经济学家赖志文(Kevin Lai)认为，随着流行多年的低成本借入美元并投资中国的套利交易模式突然结束，市场中正酝酿一场风暴。据他估计，中国企业在过去几年已借得逾2万亿美元资金，其中大量被用于货币投机。一旦美联储(FED)提高利率，这种赌博就不再有利可图。
“The renminbi is the most overcrowded trade in financial history,” he says. “If the renminbi moves down another 5 per cent, it’s going to be a big deal. It could spark a lot of selling and market panic.”
他说：“人民币交易是金融史上参与人数最多的交易。人民币汇率再降5%将会出现大麻烦，它将引发大举抛售和市场恐慌。”
A survey by Société Générale failed to find anyone who thought the renminbi would rise against the dollar in the coming 12 months, while 42 per cent of respondents believed that the PBoC would “actively seek depreciation” of the currency in response to declines in the yen and the euro.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)开展的一项调查发现，没人认为今后12个月内人民币兑美元汇率会上升。42%的回复者相信，为应对日元和欧元的贬值，中国央行会“积极寻求（人民币）贬值”。
Chinese companies themselves appear to agree. Data released last week showed that foreign exchange deposits in China rose at the fastest pace on record in January, a sign that corporations are choosing to hold on to their US dollar earnings in anticipation of a continued slide in the renminbi. Overall forex deposits rose $82.3bn during the month, compared with an increase of $134bn for the whole of 2014.
中国企业本身似乎也认同这一观点。上周发布的数据显示，1月中国外汇存款出现有记录以来最快增长，显示出企业预见到人民币将继续下跌，因而纷纷选择留存自己的美元收入。1月总体外汇存款增加了823亿美元，相比而言，2014年全年外汇存款仅增加1340亿美元。
“Such a massive jump in forex deposits is unprecedented and highly significant,” say Barclays analysts in a report. “We remain of the view that China will accommodate further currency weakness in a gradual fashion.”
“外汇存款大幅迅速增加是前所未有和影响巨大的，”巴克莱(Barclays)分析师在一份报告中称，“我们仍然认为中国将会容许人民币以渐进方式继续走弱。”
Corporate debt is also playing an important role. As the renminbi has fallen, fears have grown of a potential currency mismatch on outstanding offshore bonds and loans. Mainland companies have borrowed heavily in the dollar debt markets over the past few years, much of it short term.
公司债也扮演着重要角色。随着人民币下跌，人们越来越担心离岸未偿债券和贷款可能出现货币错配。中国内地企业过去几年在美元债务市场大举借债，其中许多是短期债务。
About a quarter of China’s outstanding corporate debt is denominated in US dollars, according to Morgan Stanley, compared with just 8.5 per cent of revenue. The bank says exposure to the rising dollar in certain sectors is “significant”, picking out China’s real estate developers and material producers in particular.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示，中国的未偿公司债有约四分之一以美元计价，而收入仅有8.5%以美元取得。该银行表示，某些行业对美元升值的风险敞口“巨大”，特别是中国的房地产开发商和原材料生产商。
Pending dollar interest payments are another reason to hold or buy greenbacks.
即将支付到期的美元利息，是中国企业留存或购买美元的另一个原因。
Investment outflows have also been accelerating.
投资外流也在加速。
In the fourth quarter of last year, $91bn flowed out of China, up from $56.7bn in the previous quarter. As the prospect of a US rate rise by the Fed draws nearer, even more “hot money” is expected to flee emerging markets and seek a home in dollar assets. China is not immune, despite its tightly managed currency controls.
上年第4季度，有910亿美元资本流出中国，高于前一个季度的567亿美元。随着美联储升息前景逼近，更多“热钱”预计将会逃离新兴市场，寻求配置美元资产。尽管实行严格的外汇管制，但中国也无法幸免。
Meanwhile China’s economic picture — exports aside — remains cloudy. The country’s growth target was officially lowered to “around 7 per cent” last week, while two rate cuts since November indicate increased unease among policy makers over the threat of deflation.
与此同时，中国除出口外的经济图景仍不明朗。中国上周已将官方增长目标下调至“7%左右”，而自去年11月以来两次降息，也显示出政策制定者日益担心通缩威胁。
Deutsche Bank’s Zhang Zhiwei warns that risks are rising of a “mini hard landing” this year, as monetary policy fails to counter stalled growth.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的张志伟警告称，货币政策未能解决增长停滞问题，今年经济遭遇“迷你硬着陆”的风险日益加大。
