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Citic Pacific’s Sino Iron venture will live for ever – as a textbook study of inexperienced management meeting Murphy’s law. The project, in Australia’s Pilbara region, has already exceeded its budget five times over. It is finally shipping ore, admittedly, and is setting a new standard of openness for Chinese state-owned groups by talking about what went wrong. But when $10bn has been sunk into a very big hole, perseverance and openness are not so much virtues as necessities.
中信泰富(Citic Pacific)的中澳铁矿项目(Sino Iron)，将成为经验不足的管理层遭遇“墨菲定律”（任何有可能发生的坏事，总会发生——译者注）的一个经典案例。该项目位于澳大利亚皮尔巴拉(Pilbara)地区，目前其实际投资已经超出预算的5倍。诚然，该项目终于开始产矿了，而且管理层也开始检讨问题所在，在透明度上为中国国有企业罕见。但是，当100亿美元被扔进无底洞的时候，坚持和透明就是次要问题了。
The chairman’s statement, part of its full-year results, was refreshing. Too many SoEs seem to run corporate buzzwords through Google Translate and rearrange them. A chairman who admits more hands-on management was needed is a novelty, though cynics might read that as a promise never to invest alongside fellow-SoE China Metallurgical Group (MCC) again. MCC’s initial plan to import cheap Chinese labour into the Pilbara, for example, never stood a chance. The risk management issue will stir up bad memories for investors who remember the 50 per cent share slide that followed Citic Pacific’s $2bn currency hedge loss in 2008.
作为其全年业绩报告的一部分，中信泰富董事长的声明令人耳目一新。太多中国国企在发布声明时，似乎只是通过谷歌翻译(Google Translate)找上些行业流行词，然后重新组织一下就算完事。而中信泰富董事长承认需要更加“亲力亲为”的管理，这令人感到新奇。不过怀疑人士也可能将此解读为，中信泰富永远不想再和这个项目中的合作方——中冶集团(China Metallurgical Group)合作投资了。中冶最初计划将中国廉价劳动力输入皮尔巴拉地区，现在看来完全做不到。风险管理问题始终是中信泰富投资者挥不去的痛：2008年，由于在汇率对冲操作中损失20亿美元，该公司股价曾下跌50%。
Sino Iron makes up less than a third of Citic Pacific’s assets, which include property, telecoms and steel, but it is the top priority for the management team, according to its chairman. Production this year could top 3m tonnes. To reach its 24m full capacity, more investment is needed. But Citic Pacific will not say how much or when, nor will it lay out production costs. Refining low-grade magnetite into ore on this scale admittedly faces unique challenges. Any figure is hostage to factors ranging from ore prices and labour costs to the outcome of a bitter court battle over royalties. But investors still deserve to know what rate of return the company expects. Or is this a hole so deep the only option is to keep digging regardless?
中信泰富的资产包括房地产、电信和钢铁。尽管中澳铁矿项目在其中占比不足三分之一，但据其董事长所言，该项目是管理团队的第一要务。今年，该项目产量最高可能达到300万吨。要实现其2400万吨的全部产能，还需要加大投资。但中信泰富不会透露增资多少或者何时增资，也不会透露生产成本。在当前产能下，将低品级磁铁矿精炼出矿石，可谓不小的挑战。公司业绩还受到各种因素的影响，从铁矿石价格和劳动力成本，到围绕使用权费的棘手的法律诉讼。但投资者迫切想知道，该公司预期的回报率是多少。或者说这个洞已经太深了，唯一的选择是，不管怎样也要继续挖下去？
