If there was one thing that Japan could always count on to drive its economy after World War II, it was exports. But just as the world's third-largest economy starts showing signs of life again, it appears outbound shipments may be taking a back seat.
二战以来日本一直依赖出口推动经济增长,但目前在这个全球第三大经济体刚刚开始显现复苏迹象的关头,出口的推动作用似乎要落后了。
Exports grew just 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2013 after a 2.7% annualized fall in the third quarter, gross domestic product data released Monday showed.
周一公布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据显示,2013年第四季度日本出口仅增长了1.7%,第三季度下降了2.7%。
While this was a rebound, it was hardly a strong one for a component of the GDP that frequently racks up double-digit percentage gains, especially when the sharply weaker yen, which is supposed to make Japanese exports more competitive overseas, is taken into consideration.
虽然第四季度出口实现了反弹,但作为GDP中经常以两位数速度增长的组成部分,这一增速并不算强劲,特别是考虑到这一增速是在日圆大幅贬值的情况下取得的。日圆贬值令日本出口到海外的商品更具竞争力。
'The expected recovery in exports didn't materialize,' said a senior government official.
一名高级政府官员称,出口复苏没有达到预期。
In the fourth quarter, the sluggish exports kept overall growth at 1.0%, much below the over 5% growth Japan needed to achieve 2.6% growth projected for the fiscal year ending March.
第四季度出口迟滞令整体经济增速保持在1.0%,而截至今年3月的财年若要实现2.6%的增长目标,则第四季度的经济增速需要超过5%。
Domestic demand has been strong recently, but that isn't seen as enough to put Japan on a long-term growth path of 2% to 3% called for by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, officials say.
官员称,最近日本国内需求强劲,但还不足以推动日本经济实现首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)预计的2%-3%的长期增速。
And lifting exports won't be easy either, with much of the nation's manufacturing sector having moved overseas over the past few years.
而由于过去几年日本多数制造企业陆续向海外搬迁,增加出口也不是一件容易的事。
Take electronics, for instance. Japanese TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners and computers are now mostly assembled in China. So it would stand to reason that even if the global economy continues to recover it wouldn't translate into increased shipments of domestically produced electronics.
以电子产品为例,目前日本的电视机、冰箱、空调和电脑多数都在中国组装。因此即便全球经济继续复苏,日本国内生产的电子产品的发货量也不会增加。
Auto makers have also increasingly been moving production overseas.
汽车制造商也一直在将生产转移到海外。
In November, Nissan Motor Co. opened its third plant in Mexico, a move that is expected to reduce the firm's auto exports from Japan. Honda Motor Co. will also start producing Fit-brand cars in Mexico, instead of exporting the subcompact model from Japan, beginning in February.
去年11月日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co., 7201.TO)在墨西哥开设第三家工厂,此举预计将减少日产汽车从日本出口的汽车数量。本田汽车(Honda Motor Co., 7267.TO) 2月也将开始在墨西哥生产Fit品牌汽车,而不再从日本出口这款小型车。
A 7% fall in auto exports to the U.S. in December is likely to be a harbinger for what's to come, industry officials say.
行业高管称,去年12月日本对美国汽车出口减少了7%,这可能是一种先兆。
With the trend of moving production abroad ongoing even as signs of an economic recovery become more apparent, Mr. Abe has only a short window to stop the trend.
即便经济复苏的迹象愈发明显,但日本企业将生产转移到海外的趋势仍在继续,安倍只有很短的时间来阻止这种趋势。
At the top of his list of solutions is reducing Japan's corporate tax rates. At 38%, Japan's corporate tax has created a significant obstacle for firms looking to do business in Japan, and is expected to be discussed intensively this year, another Japanese official said.
第一种解决办法是降低日本企业的税率。另外一名日本官员称,日本公司税高达38%,成为企业在日本经商的巨大障碍,预计这个问题今年将会被密集地讨论。
Another possible solution would be if the faltering U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership gets back on track and Japan gets on board, the official added.
这位官员补充称,另外一个可能的解决办法是,重启美国主导的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(Trans-Pacific Partnership, 简称TPP)谈判,而日本加入该协定。
Analysts say the TPP would help remove trade barriers to some of the rapidly growing markets in emerging Asia, especially in the field of public works projects, which are currently restricted to local companies.
分析师称,TPP将有助于消除一些快速增长的新兴亚洲经济体市场的贸易壁垒,特别是公共工程项目方面的贸易壁垒,这些项目目前仅允许本地公司参与建设。