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Economic forecasters are counting on 2014 to be a breakout year. But whether the economy finally moves past its sluggish growth will rest on several forces playing out differently than they have since the recovery began. Some of the key questions:
预测人士期望2014年能够成为经济实现突破的一年。但经济能否最终摆脱低迷的增长，还要取决于几个因素出现与此轮复苏刚开始时不一样的表现。以下是其中的几个关键因素:
Will businesses finally shed their caution?
企业能否最终摆脱谨慎情绪？
A devastating financial crisis led business owners and corporate executives to be especially wary about adding staff or investing in new equipment. Some worry about risks from Washington or overseas. Others are seeing consumers maintain their slow-but-steady spending, providing little incentive to deploy their cash stockpiles.
一场破坏力巨大的金融危机令企业主和高管们在增加雇员和投资新设备上尤为谨慎。一些人士还担忧来自华盛顿或海外的风险。其他人士则预计消费者将维持缓慢但稳定的支出速度，这使企业没有太多动力来动用现金储备。
As a result, business investment in key areas such as equipment has been historically weak for a U.S. recovery. A slowly improving jobs picture and rising household wealth could spark a virtuous cycle of stronger consumer spending, increased business confidence and rising investment. If it doesn't, the year could be another letdown.
受此影响，对设备等关键领域的商业投资一直处在美国复苏历史中的低点。若就业市场缓慢改善，且家庭财富增长，则可能引发消费支出增加的良性循环，增强商业信心并增加投资。但若情况并非如此，那么今年将再度令人失望。
Will Washington's tentative truce continue?
华盛顿暂时的“停战”能否持续？
The December budget deal was hardly the kind of confidence-boosting agreement Washington has been debating for years. But at least it hit the pause button on the serial brinkmanship that threatened to derail the recovery each of the past three years.
去年12月份达成的预算协议很难称得上是华盛顿激辩多年所希望看到的、能够提振信心的协议，但至少它为华盛顿不断上演的政治博弈按下了“暂停”键。在过去三年中，华盛顿每年都会上演的这种博弈对经济的复苏构成了威胁。
A combination of tax increases and spending cuts in 2013 shaved about 1.5 percentage points off annual economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Many forecasters expect the fiscal drag in 2014 to be one-third that amount, or less. 'You'll have more political certainty this year,' said Gregory Daco, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
根据美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的数据，税收增加与支出削减将2013年的经济增速拉低了约1.5个百分点。许多预测人士认为，2014年财政因素对经济增速的拖累幅度将是2013年的三分之一或更低。牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的美国经济学家达科(Gregory Daco)称，今年政治方面的确定性更高。
However, some lawmakers already are discussing a standoff again in late February over raising the federal borrowing limit. 'You can never count on policy makers to not shoot themselves in the foot,' Mr. Daco said.
不过，一些议员已经开始讨论2月末或因联邦借款上限再度引发僵局。达科称，你永远不能指望决策者们不会搬起石头砸自己的脚。
Will the Federal Reserve's path out of bond buying get bumpy?
美联储退出购债计划的道路是否会经历坎坷？
The Fed last month laid out a timetable to slow the pace of its bond purchases throughout the year. The central bank, which had been soaking up $85 billion a month in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities since late 2012, plans to reduce the pace of purchases by $10 billion at each meeting until it is no longer buying bonds at year-end.
美联储上个月公布了今年放缓购债步伐的时间表。美联储计划在每一次政策会议上将购债规模减少100亿美元，直到今年年底不再进行购债。自从2012年末以来，美联储每个月都买入850亿美元美国国债和住房抵押贷款支持证券。
Few of the Fed's forecasts have proceeded according to plan over the course of the sharp economic downturn and choppy recovery, a fact that Fed officials now openly acknowledge. 'We have been disappointed in the pace of growth, and we don't fully understand why,' Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at his final news conference last month.
在经济大幅放缓和复苏不顺的过程中，美联储的计划几乎都没有按照原先设定的那样去实施，美联储官员们现在也公开承认了这一事实。美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)上个月在其最后一次新闻发布会上表示，美联储对于增长步伐感到失望，同时也没有完全弄明白其中的原因。
The central bank last year spent more than six months signaling its intent to wean the economy off a third round of bond-buying, and the prospect upset markets at just about every turn. Now it's only in the first stage of that process.
美联储去年花了六个多月的时间暗示其有意退出第三轮购债计划，这种可能性时常扰动着市场。目前美联储仅处于退出购债计划的第一阶段。
Even if the tapering is smooth, the Fed could spend much of the year grappling with the prospect of raising its interest-rate target as early as 2015.
即便缩减购债规模的行动进展顺利，今年大部分时间美联储也会在是否最早于2015年开始加息的问题上举棋不定。
Will the housing sector adjust easily to higher interest rates?
住房市场能轻松适应利率上升吗？
Housing started last year on a high note. It ended the year facing mounting worries about higher interest rates, supply constraints, tight credit and a host of other problems.
住房市场在去年年初表现抢眼，但到年末时则受到不断加重的担忧情绪困扰，这其中包括利率上升、供给制约、信贷收紧及一系列其他问题。
Sales of previously owned homes have slipped every month since July, according to the National Association of Realtors. That coincides with the surge in borrowing costs across the economy as a result of the Fed's signals about its bond-buying program.
美国全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)的数据显示，自去年7月份以来美国成屋销量每月都在下滑。这和美国借贷成本上升是同步的。由于美联储暗示将缩减购债计划的规模，整个经济的借贷成本不断上升。
Lawrence Yun, the trade group's chief economist, expects the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to hit 5.5% at year-end, up from 4.5% late last year and 3.5% in the first half of 2013. That's a sharp runup in a short period of time, one that could harm affordability and spook even more buyers.
该协会的首席经济学家Lawrence Yun预计，到今年年底，30年期固息抵押贷款的平均利率将触及5.5%，高于去年底的4.5%和去年上半年的3.5%。抵押贷款利率在短期内如此急剧上升，可能会损害购房者的承受能力，甚至吓退更多购房者。
Will the rest of the world cooperate?
全球其他地区能加以配合吗？
Once the U.S. economic recovery started in 2009, other parts of the world started to struggle in their own ways.
在2009年美国经济开始复苏时，全球其他地区开始陷入各自的困境。
Europe fell into a debt crisis. Japan faced a natural disaster. Emerging markets, once the bright spots on the global landscape, lost their glow. Political crises from Italy to Egypt to Thailand raised the prospect of another round of global unrest.
欧洲出现了债务危机。日本面临自然灾害。曾经是全球亮点的新兴市场也失去了光芒。近来意大利、埃及和泰国等国频现政治危机，这或许表明全球市场可能将出现新一轮动荡。
The world got by in 2013 with fewer confidence-shaking moments than in prior years. But the vulnerabilities haven't disappeared. 'It's not a great story anywhere, though it's more hopeful than it has been,' said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds.
和过去几年相比，2013年信心受到动摇的时候少了，但市场依然很容易受到影响。OppenheimerFunds的首席经济学家韦布曼(Jerry Webman)表示，虽然2013年的信心要强于以往，但全球各地也不都是这样。
The relatively stable global outlook must continue if 2014 is to be the kind of economic year Americans have been hoping for throughout the recovery.
要想2014年像美国人所期望的那样由经济复苏贯穿整个年度，全球经济前景必须保持相对稳定的局面。
