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The next iPhone, which Apple Inc. plans to unveil this week, could do something the White House, Congress and Federal Reserve have struggled to do: boost the U.S. economy.
苹果公司(Apple Inc.)计划这周发布的新一代iPhone，可以做一件白宫、美国国会和美联储(Federal Reserve)都一直难以做到的事情：提振美国经济。
Sales of the new iPhone could add between a quarter and a half of a percentage point to the annualized rate of economic growth in the fourth quarter, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli estimates. That could help cushion the sluggish U.S. economy from other risks in the final months of the year.
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)首席美国经济学家费洛里(Michael Feroli)说，新iPhone的销售有望使第四季度年化经济增长率提高0.25至0.5个百分点。这可能有助于疲弱的美国经济在年内最后几个月应对来自其他风险的冲击。
In a note to clients Monday, titled 'Can one little phone impact GDP?,' Mr. Feroli walks through the math: J.P. Morgan's equity analysts expect Apple to sell about eight million new iPhone units in the final three months of 2012.
弗洛里周一向客户发送了一份题为《小小手机能否影响GDP？》的报告，解释了上述结论的计算过程：摩根大通股权分析师预计苹果将在2012年最后三个月卖出约800万部新iPhone。
If the phone sells for around $600, with about $200 of it counted as imported components, then $400 per phone would add to the government's measure of gross domestic product, the total value of the economy's output.
如果售价约为600美元，其中摩根大通算为进口零部件的部分在200美元左右，那么每部手机就会使政府统计的国内生产总值(GDP)增加400美元。
Even though consumers may not pay that much for the phone, because of subsidies from wireless carriers, Mr. Feroli explains that companies often report phone sales based on the price of the stand-alone product.
虽然电信运营商的补贴可能会让消费者不用支付那么多钱，但费洛里解释，企业在报告手机销售额的时候，常常是基于单个产品的价格。
The bottom line: The new iPhone sales could boost GDP by $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate. That is an increase of 0.33 percentage point in the annualized rate of GDP growth. It could be even higher, he says. Even a third of a percentage point would limit the risk the economy would grow more slowly than J.P. Morgan's fourth-quarter growth projection of 2%.
总之，新iPhone的销售额有望将第四季度的GDP提高32亿美元，折合成年率为128亿美元，相当于年化GDP增长率提高0.33个百分点。弗洛里说，实际可能还会更高。哪怕只有三分之一个百分点，也会降低第四季度实际经济增长速度低于摩根大通预测速度2%的风险。
Mr. Feroli warns that the estimate 'seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically' but adds: 'We think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection.'
弗洛里警告说，这个估计数字看起来似乎相当大，所以应当抱怀疑态度。但他也说：我们认为近期出现的证据与这一预测相符。
One clue: When the iPhone 4S became widely available last October, he writes, over half of the 0.8% increase in the nation's so-called core retail sales─which exclude autos, gasoline and building materials─came in the categories of online sales and computer and software sales. The two categories together had their largest monthly increase on record.
他写道，另一条线索是，当去年10月份iPhone 4S广泛上市销售时，核心零售额（排除汽车、汽油和建材）0.8%的增幅中，超过一半的增幅来自网上销售和电脑及软件销售。这两个项目加起来的月增长幅度达到有记录以来最高水平。
He estimates the sales growth was due to the iPhone, which boosted overall GDP growth by a fifth to a 10th of a percentage point. The new iPhone launch will be even bigger than that, he says, making the latest estimate 'reasonable.'
费洛里估计这种增长得益于iPhone，它使整个GDP增速提高了0.1至0.2个百分点。他说，新一代iPhone是分量更大的产品，所以最新的估计是“合理”的。
In the final three months of last year, the U.S. economy expanded rapidly at a 4.1% annual rate, and then slowed sharply to a 2% pace in the first quarter of this year, and 1.7% in the second quarter.
去年最后三个月，美国经济年化增长率达4.1%，今年一季度大幅减速至2%，二季度又降至1.7%。
Many analysts have recently lowered their forecasts for economic growth in the second half of the year for reasons including the drought, higher oil prices and uncertainty about U.S. budget policies. Last week, the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers shaved its forecasts for economic growth to a 1.5% annual rate in the third-quarter and 1.4% in the fourth quarter, both down seven-tenths of a percentage point, largely due to the effect of the drought on farm output.
很多分析师最近下调了美国下半年经济增长预期，原因包括旱灾、油价上涨及美国预算政策的不确定性。预测公司Macroeconomic Advisers上周将第三季度年化经济增长率预期下调至1.5%，将第四季度预期下调至1.4%，分别都降了0.7个百分点，理由主要是旱灾对农业产量的影响。
