Why Coal May Burn More Brightly

The International Energy Agency painted a tough energy outlook for coming years, with tightening oil supplies and a surge in global-warming emissions as China and India burn more coal to power their booming economies.

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)为今后几年的能源市场描绘了一幅暗淡的图景。它预计石油供应将吃紧，而中国、印度等国煤炭消耗量增加将导致全球温室气体排放量进一步上升。

The industrialized world's energy watchdog also predicted fast-growing China will displace the U.S. as both the world's biggest polluter this year and the largest energy consumer by 2010, based on current trends.

IEA还预计，经济高速发展的中国今年将取代美国，成为全球最大的污染物排放国，并且从目前趋势看，中国将在2010年后成为最大的能源消耗国。

The Paris-based group, in its annual forecast, said a number of factors, including the soaring cost of oil, will contribute to a boom in coal. Aging and less-productive oil fields and resistance among major oil exporters to build spare oil capacity will make crude oil and natural gas more expensive and prompt developing countries to turn increasingly to the world's dirtiest fossil fuel.

总部位于巴黎的IEA在其年度报告中表示，油价飙升等众多因素将继续刺激煤炭的使用。油田的长期开采和产量下降以及主要石油出口国不愿增加新产能等因素将进一步推高原油和天然气价格，促使发展中国家更多地转向煤炭这种全球污染最严重的化石燃料。

The annual World Energy Outlook, released as U.S. benchmark crude rose 20 cents to $96.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange trading Wednesday morning, also details a continued surge in oil demand that could result in a serious supply crunch around 2015. The agency, which acts as an energy think tank funded by the world's 26 most-advanced economies, portrays a world that by 2030 will be consuming 55% more energy than it is now, with almost half of the growth because of soaring demand in China and India. While oil will remain the world's largest source of energy in terms of metric tons of oil equivalent, at 32%, coal's share is expected to jump to 28%, up from 25% now, contributing to a 57% increase in carbon emissions.

IEA 在其年度报告《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中还详细论述了石油需求的继续增长可能会在2015年前后带来严重的供应问题。报告预计，到2030年，全球能源消耗量将比目前增加 55%，其中约有一半的增长来自中国和印度。尽管从吨油当量指标来看，届时石油仍将是全球最大的能源来源，所占比重为32%，但煤炭的比重预计将从目前的 25%上升到28%，在碳排放增加量中占到57%。

Barring unforeseen changes in government policy to reduce oil consumption, the IEA predicts that world-wide oil demand will hit 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from about 85 million barrels a day now. Electricity use will nearly double, with most of the globe's new plants burning coal.

IEA预计，除非各国政府采取措施抑制石油消费，否则全球石油消耗量将在2030年达到每天1.16亿桶，远高于目前的约8,500万桶。全球的大多数新工厂都将使用煤炭，用电量将增加近一倍。

For nearly all economies, the tough question is on the supply side. The IEA foresees a boost in production from new fields in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, but warns that 'it is very uncertain' whether these new sources 'will be sufficient to compensate for the decline in output at existing fields' in the Middle East and among other big producers such as Russia, Mexico and Venezuela.

对几乎所有经济体来说，他们都面临着供应面的严峻考验。IEA预计，中东尤其是沙特阿拉伯的新油田产量将会增加，但该组织警告说，很不确定这是否能够补偿中东和俄罗斯、墨西哥及委内瑞拉等石油生产大国现有油田产量的下降。

The resulting pinch in supply could result in 'an abrupt escalation in oil prices' around 2015, an event the agency said 'cannot be ruled out.' The dramatic rise in oil prices to nearly $100 a barrel from about $50 in early January has invigorated debate over whether oil prices will go far higher in coming years, or will taper off from a spike that some critics insist is largely driven by speculation.

由此带来的供应面的紧张可能导致油价在2015年前后大幅上涨，IEA表示不能排除这种可能性。今年以来，国际油价已从年初的每桶50美元左右飙升至目前的近100美元，今后几年油价将继续上扬还是会冲高回落成了人们争论的问题。一些评论人士坚持认为，目前油价的上涨主要是由投机行为推动的。

The IEA bluntly says consumers and governments globally are doing too little to improve energy-supply security and to cut pollution. Even under the most optimistic assumptions, global carbon emissions -- the main culprit blamed for global warming -- will be 25% higher in 2030 from today's levels.

IEA坦率地表示，全球的消费者和政府所作甚少，不足以加强能源供应安全和降低污染。即使按照最乐观的假设，到2030年时全球的碳排放量也将比目前水平增加25%。

'The pathway we're on is not sustainable' both for the health of the environment and for securing stable energy supplies in the future, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka told journalists in London. 'Time is running out.'

IEA执行干事田中伸男(Nobuo Tanaka)在伦敦向记者表示，无论从环保角度还是保持未来能源供应稳定的角度看，我们目前的做法都是不可持续的。时机正在一点点丧失。

China and India are setting the tone of global energy markets with the size of their populations, each over one billion, and double-digit economic growth rates. The IEA predicts that the two Asian countries combined will import more oil in 2030 than Japan and the U.S. do today. China and India also will account for 80% of the growth in coal consumption over the next two decades, with China tapping abundant domestic supplies but India having to import more of what it needs.

中国和印度正在全球能源市场扮演着越来越重要的角色，两国的人口数量都超过10亿，经济增长率都在两位数以上。IEA预计，这两个亚洲国家到2030年的石油进口总量将超过目前日本和美国的进口量之和。在今后20年中，全球新增煤炭消费量将有80%来自中国和印度，中国有着充足的国内供应，而印度则需要进口更多煤炭。

While the IEA focused its most recent outlook on China and India, it also forecast booming demand in the Middle East. Oil use there is expected to hit 7.9 million barrels a day by 2015, more than twice the predicted demand in India.

尽管IEA在报告中重点关注了中国和印度市场，但它预计中东地区的需求也将增长。预计2015年时，中东地区的原油消耗量将达到每天790万桶，是印度预期需求量的两倍以上。

Although China is taking measures to mitigate global-warming emissions, the Asian giant is to become the world's biggest polluter this year in absolute terms and the largest energy consumer, ahead of the U.S., shortly after 2010, based on current trends, according to the IEA outlook. On a per-capita-emissions basis, the U.S. is expected to remain the world's biggest greenhouse gas producer over the next two decades.

尽管中国正在采取措施减少污染物的排放，但IEA在报告中预测，照目前趋势发展，以绝对值衡量，中国今年将成为全球最大的污染排放国，并在2010年之后不久取代美国成为最大的能源消耗国。按人均排放量统计，预计美国在今后20年仍将是全球最大的温室气体排放国。

Renewable energy sources such as solar will grow in use in certain areas, like the U.K., but the current logistical challenges and costs of using and developing them mean all renewable energy sources will remain a fraction of total energy use globally in 2030 at about 10%, unchanged from today.

太阳能等可再生能源在英国等一些国家将得到更广泛的使用，但目前的物流难题及应用和开发成本意味着，到2030年时，全球的所有可再生能源在全部能源中所占比例仍将保持在目前的10%左右。

The IEA says improved energy efficiency, technical improvements for burning coal more cleanly, and building more nuclear power plants, which emit almost no carbon emissions, are some of the responses consumers and governments must take to ease energy-supply concerns and to cut carbon gases.

IEA表示，提高能源效率、发展清洁煤炭技术及建设更多的核电站是消费者和政府必须采取的缓解能源供应紧张和减少温室气体排放的对策。

Such measures are critical because finding new oil and gas supplies around the world is getting far more expensive and unpredictable even though state-run and publicly traded energy companies are sinking hundreds of billions of dollars into exploration efforts. Part of the oil and gas supply problem in the years ahead also stems from a more disciplined approach by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increasing spare oil-production capacity. The 12-nation producer group says it is spending more than $100 billion currently on new projects, but it doesn't want to be stuck with too much capacity down the road in case demand falters, which would then squeeze oil prices.

这些措施至关重要，因为尽管国有和上市能源公司在勘探上投入了数千亿美元，但在全球范围内寻找新油气田的成本越来越高，难度也越来越大。近年来油气供应紧张的原因之一还在于石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称：欧佩克)在增加新产能问题上采取了比较保守的做法。欧佩克表示，目前已投资1,000多亿美元用于新项目建设，但为了防止需求下降并进而打击油价，它并不想大规模提高产能。

OPEC is expected to supply just over half the world's oil supply by 2030, compared with about 40% today, as non-OPEC production falls.

随着非欧佩克国家产量的下降，到2030年时，估计欧佩克在全球石油供应中所占的比例将超过50%，高于目前的约40%。