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Bartleby
巴托比专栏
Up the permavucalution!
迎接永久VUCA革命吧!
A new year’s message from the chief executive.
来自首席执行官的新年致辞。
Dear friends and colleagues, Happy New Year!
亲爱的朋友们，亲爱的同事们，新年快乐！
This time last year, for the ninth year in a row, I warned you that there had never been a more uncertain outlook for our business.
去年这个时候，我连续第九年向你们发出警告，我们的业务前景从未像现在这样充满不确定性。
My message this year is exactly the same, only more so.
我今年要传达的还是这个信息，但是不确定的程度要更深。
The fog of unpredictability is again playing havoc with the clear skies of planning.
不可预测性的迷雾再次遮蔽了制定计划的晴朗天空。
We all know the term “permacrisis”.
我们都知道“永久性危机”这个词。（注：permacrisis是前缀perma-和crisis构成的，perma-表示永久的。）
We have all heard of the acronym “VUCA”, which stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
我们都听说过VUCA这个缩写，它代表波动性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性。
We all understand that the fourth industrial revolution is upon us.
我们都明白，第四次工业革命已经到来。
But my belief is that these three great forces have come together in an age of what I am christening “permavucalution”.
但我相信，这三种巨大的力量正在当今时代汇聚，而我将这个时代命名为“永久VUCA革命”。（注：permavucalution是perma-加VUCA加revolution的后缀构成的。）
It is my contention that three big permavucalutionary trends are at work.
我的论点是，三大永久VUCA变革趋势正在发挥作用。
One is artificial intelligence.
第一个趋势是人工智能。
This technology will turbocharge the pace of change.
人工智能技术将加速变革的步伐。
Don’t just take my word for it.
别以为只有我这么说。
The World Economic Forum thinks so, too.
世界经济论坛也这么认为。
AI is so disruptive that it may end up disrupting disruption itself.
人工智能如此具有颠覆性，它最终可能会把颠覆本身给颠覆。
If you are struggling to make sense of that sentence, don’t worry: you are not alone.
如果你觉得这句话很难理解，不要担心，其他人也这么觉得。
I have appointed Denise Laplange to head up our new Project for Rapid AI peRformance Improvement and Enhancement.
我已经任命丹妮斯·拉普朗奇来领导我们的新项目：快速AI性能提高和增强项目。（注：performance的r大写是为了凑成PRAIRIE的首字母缩写，prairie意思是大草原。）
I know you will make Denise feel very welcome.
我知道你们会对丹妮斯表示热烈的欢迎。
She and the PRAIRIE team will give us a full update on their plans for our use of AI later in January.
她和大草原团队将在1月下旬向我们完整地汇报他们对于应用AI有什么计划。
For now, though, I urge you to embrace this technology in your own work.
但现在，我敦促大家在自己的工作中拥抱这项技术。
I often use ChatGPT to say “no” to conference invitations, for example, or to give generic responses to really unimportant emails.
例如，我自己就经常使用ChatGPT来拒绝会议邀请，或者对无关紧要的电子邮件做出笼统的回复。
I want you to follow my example.
我希望大家要以我为榜样。
Let’s Experiment. Let’s Explore. Let’s Tinker. Let’s EET.
让我们来实验吧，来探索吧，来玩一玩吧。让我们来“实探玩”吧。
We need to get our arms around AI or we risk reaping a whirlwind of chickens coming home to roost.
我们需要张开双臂拥抱AI，否则我们将面临自食其果的风险。
I know some of you are worried by what AI might mean for your own futures.
我知道你们中的一些人很担心AI对你们自己的未来会有什么影响。
I say to you: you cannot make an omelette without breaking some eggs.
我要对你们说：不打破一些鸡蛋，怎么能做成煎蛋卷呢？
What if you don’t like omelettes, you reply?
你可能会说，要是你不喜欢煎蛋卷呢？
That’s just ridiculous: who doesn’t like omelettes?
这太荒谬了：谁不喜欢煎蛋卷呢？
Anyway I want to reassure you: AI is a way to make us all better at what we do.
总之，我想向你们保证：人工智能是一种提高我们所有人的工作能力的办法。
It is not likely to be the precursor to immediate large-scale lay-offs.
它不太可能成为立即进行大规模裁员的前兆。
The second permavucalutionary trend is climate change.
第二个永久VUCA革命趋势是气候变化。
At COP28, I had a chance to speak to some actual people who are living with the consequences of global warming.
在第28届联合国气候变化大会上，我有机会与一些真正遭受了全球变暖后果的人进行谈话。
That experience was humbling and inspiring: it made me realise we have to do more in this area.
这次谈话经历既令人谦卑，也鼓舞人心：它让我意识到，我们必须在气候变化方面有更多行动。
As a company we are making every effort to reduce our own carbon footprint, but action is never enough.
作为一家公司，我们正在尽一切努力减少我们自己的碳足迹，但行动永远不够。
We also need to be part of the conversation.
我们也需要加入对话。
That’s why I’m so pleased today to announce the launch of our new #whatdoyousee? marketing campaign.
因此我今天很高兴地宣布，我们将推出新的“你看见了什么？”市场营销活动。
When I look in the mirror, I don’t just see a highly successful executive, someone who is driven to make the most of himself every day.
当我照镜子时，我看到的不仅仅是一位非常成功的高管，一个每天都充满动力、全力以赴的人。
I also see a father, an ex-husband, a brother, a Peloton rider, a vintage-car collector and a citizen of Earth.
我还看到了一位父亲、一位前夫、一位兄弟、一位佩乐顿动感单车骑手、一位老爷车收藏家和一位地球公民。
What do you see?
你们看到了什么？
Please post your own reflections—pun very much intended—on social media.
请在社交媒体上发布你们的想法--特意使用了双关语。（注：reflection既表示镜子中的影像，也表示反思和思考。）
You can also send me an email (and see how I incorporate ChatGPT into my work).
你们也可以给我发一封电子邮件(看看我是如何把ChatGPT融入我的工作的)。
The third manifestation of the permavucalution is a shortage of talent.
永久VUCA革命的第三个表现是人才短缺。
By talent, I’m not talking about employees in general.
我所说的人才不是一般的员工。
I’m talking about the right type of employees—people who are willing to take big bets, who go the extra mile, who see opportunity where others see nothing but extreme danger.
而是适合当今时代的那种员工：愿意冒险的人，付出额外努力的人，在别人只看到危险时他们能看到机遇的人。
I’m talking about some of you.
我说的就是你们当中的一些人。
I have mentioned how uncertain and volatile everything is.
我已经提到过，现在一切都是多么的不确定和不稳定。
That means we have to sprint to stand still.
这意味着我们必须向前冲刺，才能站稳脚跟。
But that’s not all.
但这还不是全部。
To respond to constant changes we also need the agility of a mountain goat.
为了应对不断发生的变化，我们还需要像山羊一样敏捷。
And to spot those changes coming, we require the radar of a bat.
为了能发现即将到来的变化，我们还需要蝙蝠一样的雷达。
Now just ask yourself this question: have you ever seen a sprinting goat-bat?
现在问问你自己这个问题：你见过向前冲刺的羊蝙蝠吗？
That tells you something about the scale of the challenge that we all face.
这就说明了我们现在面临多大程度的挑战。
I know that this level of uncertainty can be disorientating, even frightening.
我知道，这种程度的不确定性可能会让人迷失方向，甚至令人感到恐惧。
But if we do not think outside the box and push the envelope, we will never be able to capture lightning in a bottle.
但如果我们不能跳出框框去思考，不能挑战极限，那么我们永远无法捕捉到闪电并封入瓶中。（注：capture lightning in a bottle表示完成很难做到的事。）
Finally, my usual plea: be humble.
最后，我一贯的恳求是：要谦虚。
I have coined a brand new term in this message but I am not doing so for fame or recognition as a deep thinker.
我在这封信中创造了一个全新的术语（注：即永久VUCA革命），但我这样做并不是为了沽名钓誉，也不是为了让别人认可我是一个深刻的思想家。
I know I don’t have all the answers.
我知道我并不是无所不知。
If I have a great idea, I don’t just plough ahead with it.
如果我有一个好主意，我不会闷头就去干。
I ask my direct reports whether they think it is a great idea first, and only when they agree that it is do I act.
我会先问我的直接下属，他们是否认为这是一个好主意，只有当他们同意这是一个好主意时，我才会采取行动。
Have the humility to follow my example and this company will not just survive the age of permavucalution. It will thrive.
如果大家保持谦虚，以我为榜样，那么这家公司将不仅会在永久VUCA革命时代存活下来，而且还会欣欣向荣。
Here’s to 2024!
谨以此向2024致意！
Stew Pidd, CEO.
斯丢·匹德，首席执行官。（注：虚拟人名，谐音stupid。）
