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如何预测抛硬币(上)

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How to predict a coin toss

如何预测抛硬币

Coins are fair.Their tossers, less so.

硬币是公平的。它们的抛掷者就没那么公平了。

Legend holds that the city of Portland, Oregon, was nearly called Boston.

传说俄勒冈州的波特兰市差点被称为波士顿。

A coin toss in 1845 between Francis Pettygrove, who hailed from a different Portland, in Maine, and Asa Lovejoy, from Boston (the one in Massachusetts) eventually decided the matter.

1845年,来自缅因州另一个波特兰的弗朗西斯·佩蒂格罗夫和来自波士顿(马萨诸塞州的那个)的阿萨·洛夫乔伊之间的一次抛硬币最终决定了这件事。

But things might have turned out differently, per Frantisek Bartos, a graduate student at the University of Amsterdam, if people were not such wobbly tossers.

但是阿姆斯特丹大学的研究生弗兰蒂泽克·巴托斯认为,如果抛硬币的人不摇晃的话,事情可能会有不同的结果。

Mr Bartos was interested in a prediction made by Persi Diaconis, Susan Holmes and Richard Montgomery, a group of American mathematicians.

巴托斯先生对一组美国数学家佩尔西·戴康尼斯,苏珊·福尔摩斯和理查德·蒙哥马利所做的预测很感兴趣。

In 2007 the trio analysed the physics of a flipping coin and noticed something intriguing.

2007年,三人组分析了抛硬币的物理过程,发现了一些有趣的现象。

Besides sending it somersaulting end-over-end, most people impart a slight rotation to a coin.

除了让硬币上下颠倒外,大多数人还会让硬币稍微旋转一下。

That causes the axis about which the coin is flipping to drift while it is in the air, a phenomenon called precession.

这会导致硬币在空中抛掷时所围绕的轴发生漂移,这种现象被称为旋进。

After crunching the numbers, the physicists concluded that a coin thrown by a human should exhibit a subtle but persistent bias.

在计算了这些数字之后,物理学家们得出结论,人类投掷的硬币应该表现出微妙但持久的偏差。

There was about a 51% chance that a coin would land the same way up as it had been prior to being thrown.

大约有51%的几率,一枚硬币会以与投掷前相同的方式落下。

If it was heads-up in the thrower’s hand, in other words, it would be slightly more likely to land heads-up too.

换句话说,如果它在投掷者手中是头朝上的,那么它也更有可能头朝上落地。

Or at least, that was the prediction.

或者至少,这是预测的结果。

重点单词   查看全部解释    
bias ['baiəs]

想一想再看

n. 偏见,斜纹
vt. 使偏心

联想记忆
subtle ['sʌtl]

想一想再看

adj. 微妙的,敏感的,精细的,狡诈的,不明显的

 
rotation [rəu'teiʃən]

想一想再看

n. 旋转,循环

联想记忆
axis ['æksis]

想一想再看

n. 轴,中枢

 
toss [tɔs]

想一想再看

n. 投掷,震荡
v. 投掷,摇荡,辗转

联想记忆
drift [drift]

想一想再看

vi. 漂流,漂移,漂泊,吹积,偏离
vt.

 
prior ['praiə]

想一想再看

adj. 优先的,更重要的,在前的
adv.

 
slightly ['slaitli]

想一想再看

adv. 些微地,苗条地

 
phenomenon [fi'nɔminən]

想一想再看

n. 现象,迹象,(稀有)事件

联想记忆
prediction [pri'dikʃən]

想一想再看

n. 预言,预报

 

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