评论
打印
Finance and economics
财经商业
The capital-freeze index
资金冻结指数
Stop signs
停止的迹象
Which emerging markets are most vulnerable to a freeze in capital inflows?
哪些新兴市场最容易在资本流入时冻结？
THE risk of an abrupt end to capital inflows is now a worry for much of the emerging world.
资本流入突然结束的风险是现在大部分新兴世界的心头之患。
Some places are more vulnerable than others.
而且有些市场比其他更容易被冻结。
A large current-account gap implies lots of net borrowing from abroad, which could presage a credit crunch if funding dries up.
一个巨大的往来账户缺口意味着将从国外引进大量的净借贷，这样一旦资金枯竭就可能造成信贷紧缩。
A high level of short-term external debt relative to a government's stock of reserves means an economy lacks the means to tide borrowers through temporary difficulties.
一个短期外债相对于政府的库存水平很高意味着缺乏经济手段来度过暂时的困难。
Rapid credit growth often signals overstretched firms and overvalued asset prices.
信贷的快速增长往往意味着公司的捉襟见肘和对资产价格的高估。
A more open financial system may boost growth in the long run, but it also makes it easy for capital to flood out fast.
一个更加开放的金融体系，从长远来看可能促进经济增长，但同时也很容易让资本涌入更快。
The Economist has combined these four factors into an index measuring the vulnerability of 26 emerging markets to a capital freeze.
《经济学人》用以上四个因素组成一个索引，用来测量资金冻结的26个新兴市场的脆弱性。
We have used a simple traffic-light system to group the countries.
我们用一个简单的交通灯系统给国家分组，
Green denotes economies, including reserve-rich oil states, that are at relatively little risk from a sudden stop.
绿色表示经济实体，包括储量丰富的石油国家，资金突然停止的风险相对较小。
A current-account surplus, a vast hoard of reserves and a closed capital account mean that whatever troubles befallChina, they are unlikely to include a panicked flight of capital.
往来账户盈余，大量储备囤积和资本账户封闭意味着无论任何麻烦降临中国，都不太可能给他们造成资本恐慌。
Many of the emerging world's bigger economies lie in amber territory.
许多新兴国家的更大的经济都依赖于琥珀领土。
India and Indonesia are already feeling the pressure.
印度和印尼已经感受到了压力，
Others, like Mexico, have fared well amid recent turmoil: the peso has been roughly flat over the past year.
其他的国家，像墨西哥在近期金融风暴期间就过度的很好：
But credit growth and high levels of financial openness are potential points of fragility.
比索与已经过去的一年大致持平。但信贷增长和高层次的金融开放是潜在的脆弱点。
Malaysia and the Philippines, victims of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, are in better shape now.
马来西亚和菲律宾，20世纪90年代后期的亚洲金融危机的受害者，现在有了更好的形态。
Both run current-account surpluses and have built up a much larger reserve buffer relative to short-run external obligations.
两者都有了往来账户盈余，并相对于短期外债已建立一个更大的储备缓冲，
Yet credit growth has also been zesty.
而且信贷增长也一直很灿烂。
Countries in the red zone are most at risk.
在红色区域是最危险的国家。
South Africa,Ukraine and a clutch of Latin American countries all look vulnerable, but Turkey tops the list.
南非，乌克兰和拉美的很多国家都显得很脆弱，但土耳其名列榜首。
It is running a current-account deficit of over 6% of GDP, its short-term external debt and debt payments amount to over 150% of available reserve assets, and since 2009 credit has grown faster there than it has in any other emerging market in the index.
它的往来账户的运行赤字超过GDP的6%，短期外债和债务款项可用的储备资产超过150%，并且自2009年以来信贷增长速度比其在任意其他新兴市场中都快。
The Turkish lira has already fallen by 13% against the dollar since the start of the year, but it may yet sink further.
今年年初以来，土耳其里拉兑换美元汇率已经下跌了13%，而且它还可能进一步下沉。
