China’s rulers comfortable with slowing of economy

　　For more than a decade, Chinese growth of at least 8 per cent ayear has been the overriding imperative for policy makers inBeijing.
10多年来，中国每年至少达到8%的经济增长率一直是北京的政策制定者的首要目标。

　　The prospect of it falling lower filled them with dread because it was believed to be the level belowwhich mass unemployment would spark uncontrollable social unrest and even the possibleoverthrow of the Communist party.
低于这个增幅的可能性让他们发愁，因为各方相信，若经济增长达不到8%，大规模失业将引发无法控制的社会不安定，甚至可能导致共产党被推翻。

　　Particularly in the midst of the financial crisis, when Beijing launched a massive stimulus program torevive its plummeting economy, the mantra among Chinese officials of all ranks was “bao ba” or “ensure 8 [per cent growth].”
尤其是在金融危机期间，北京方面出台一个大规模刺激方案以求重振不断下滑的经济，当时中国各级官员的口号都是“保八”。

　　But this year, China will undershoot 8 per cent growth for the first time since 1999, when theeconomy grew by an annual rate of 7.6 per cent.
但在今年，中国经济增长率将在1999年以来首次低于8%。1999年中国经济增长7.6%。

　　If gross domestic product grows slower than 7.6 per cent for the full year, it will be the weakestshowing for the Chinese economy since 1990.
如果今年中国全年国内生产总值(GDP)增长低于7.6%，那将是中国经济自1990年以来的最疲弱增长。

　　That is a distinct possibility, given that GDP growth in the first three quarters grew by just 7.7 percent, compared with 9.3 per cent for the whole of 2011.
这是一个明显的可能性，因为前3个季度GDP增长仅达到7.7%，与2011年全年9.3%的增幅形成对比。

　　But something has definitely changed in Beijing, where far from panicking and doing everythingthey can to pump it back up, China’s rulers seem pretty comfortable with their new sub-8 per centworld.
但北京在某些地方肯定发生了变化——中国领导层似乎对经济增长低于8%的新现实相当自在，而没有在恐慌之下采取一切措施重振增长。

　　The first and most important reason for their insouciance is that there have been no widespreadlayoffs even as the economy has decelerated for seven consecutive quarters, falling to 7.4 percent annual growth in the third quarter.
他们之所以若无其事，第一个也是最重要的原因是，迄今没有出现大规模裁员，即便中国经济增长已经连续7个季度放缓，第三季度的同比增幅降至7.4%。

　　According to figures released yesterday, more than 10m jobs were created in China in the first ninemonths of the year and the number of rural migrants working in the cities increased by 3 per centfrom the same period a year earlier to 169m.
根据昨日发布的数据，今年前9个月，中国创造了逾1000万就业岗位，在城市工作的农民工人数同比增长3%，达到1.69亿。

　　Factories making iPhones in central China complain of terrible labor shortages and urbanhouseholds saw real wage growth of 9.8 per cent in the first three quarters, according to officialfigures.
在中国中部，承制iPhone的工厂抱怨劳动力短缺情况严重，同时官方数据显示，今年前3个季度城市家庭实际工资上涨9.8%。

　　Powerful demographic forces are largely responsible. Slowing growth in China’s labor force thanksto the country’s one-child policy means that the government is under less pressure to promotebreakneck growth to create millions more jobs.
这在很大程度上可以归因于强大的人口结构力量。中国一胎化政策造成劳动力人数增长放缓，这意味着在保持迅猛增长以创造数以百万计的就业方面，政府的压力有所减轻。

　　Another reason for the lack of official angst is the fact that a gradual slowdown is exactly whatpolicy makers have been trying to engineer since the beginning of 2011.
官方不感到焦虑的另一个原因是，逐渐减速正是政策制定者从2011年初开始试图设计的局面。

　　At the start of this year, Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, set an annual target of 7.5 per centexpansion, the first time the objective had been set below 8 per cent in years.
今年初，中国总理温家宝设定了全年增长7.5%的目标，这是多年来中国经济增长目标首次被定在8%的下方。

　　At the time, nobody took that target seriously because Mr Wen had been predicting 8 per cent foryears and every year growth came in far above that, hitting a peak of 14.2 per cent in 2007. Mostanalysts and economists expected Beijing to blink, as it has many times before, when growthdropped below the cherished 8 per cent level this year, but instead the government has shownremarkable resolve.
当时没有人把这个目标当一回事，因为往年温家宝年年预计经济增长8%，而每一年实际增幅均远高于此，尤其是在2007年达到14.2%的峰值。多数分析师和经济学家曾预期，就像以往多次发生的情况那样，北京方面在今年经济增长低于官方看重的8%的水平时将会沉不住气，但实际发生的情况是，中国政府展现了值得称道的决心。

　　This has been particularly obvious in the government’s refusal to lift strict curbs on a real estateboom.
这一点在政府拒绝放松旨在冷却楼市的严格调控措施上尤其明显。

　　The meteoric rise in housing prices has stopped and the real estate sector is hurting.
房价扶摇直上的涨势已经停止，房地产行业正经历痛苦。

　　The domestic real estate boom has been a key driver of the Chinese economy, as well as theeconomies of large commodities exporters around the world, for much of the past decade.
在过去10年的大部分时期，国内房地产繁荣是中国经济乃至世界各地大宗商品出口大国经济的关键推动因素之一。

　　But Beijing now really seems to be trying to reduce its reliance on real estate and infrastructureinvestment and promote consumption and services in their place.
但是北京方面现在似乎真的在努力减轻中国经济对房地产和基建投资的依赖，同时大力推动消费和服务业的发展作为替代。

　　This is good news for the long term sustainability of Chinese growth and it is also probably goodnews for most Chinese people, who should see faster income growth (and cheaper housing) as aresult.
这对中国经济增长的长期可持续性而言是个好消息，对多数中国人来说也很可能是个好消息，因为这有望带来更快的收入增长（以及比较廉价的住房）。

　　But it is worse news for global commodity exporters and for Chinese and foreign companies thathave invested here on the basis of growth being eternally higher than the magic 8 per centnumber.
但是，对于全球大宗商品出口者，对于假定中国经济增长将永远保持在神奇的8%上方、并据此在华投资的中外企业来说，这是坏消息。