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尊敬的尼布利特所长，
女士们，先生们：
Dr Robin Niblett,
Ladies and gentlemen,
今天能在英国皇家国际问题研究所这个具有近百年历史、全球知名的国际关系研究机构演讲，我深感荣幸。我对皇研所是未谋其面，先闻其名。20多年前我在美国工作，经常参加一些学术活动，研讨中不时提到的一个专有名词是“皇研所规则”（Chatham House Rule），从中我得知了隔着大西洋的皇研所。来英国后，通过与尼布利特所长等皇研所专家的交流，我对贵所独立思考、深入分析的传统也有了更多了解。
It is my great honour to address Chatham House, an institute with a world reputation and a long history. I first heard about Chatham House more than 20 years ago when I was working in the United States. "Chatham House rule" was often applied in the academic events I attended. Thanks to Dr Niblett and his colleagues, I have learned much more about Chatham House and its proud tradition of independent thinking and profound scholarship since I came to the UK.
今天我演讲的主题是未来中国的发展。刚刚结束的中国全国人大审议通过了 “十二五”规划，这是中国未来五年的发展蓝图。因此，我认为，讲中国未来的发展，最好就是解读一下“十二五”规划，从中管窥中国发展思路和方向。
My topic today is China's future development. To understand the thinking and the direction of China's development for the next 5 years, we need to take a closer look at the 12th Five Year Plan that was adopted at the recent annual parliamentary session in China.
我认为，“十二五”规划释放的发展思路主要就是两点，一是科学发展，二是和平发展。
As far as I can see, the 12th Five-Year Plan boils down into two key terms – "scientific development" and "peaceful development".
关于科学发展，可能一些西方人都不是太理解“科学”这个词，我想再用四个关键词来解释一下，这就是：平衡、包容、全面和绿色。
Some people in the West may be curious about the term 'scientific development'. I think it can be explained in four words: "balanced, inclusive, comprehensive and green development".
说“平衡”，就是说中国经济发展方式要转型，经济结构要调整。当前中国经济发展速度和经济规模均位居世界前列，但中国目前“低价工业化”发展模式正受到严峻挑战，“大而不强、快而不优”的发展现状亟需改变。“十二五”规划中将未来五年中国经济增速目标定为7%，这比改革开放三十年来中国平均年增长10%明显放缓，也略低于上一个五年规划时确定的7.5%的目标。这一“量”的减慢将为“质”的提升留出空间，我们就可以抓住时机促进经济发展方式实现四个重大转变：
"Balanced" means China must upgrade its growth model and economic structure. Being the second largest economy, China may lead the world in growth rate and economic size, yet its low-cost industrialisation model is exhausting its potential. So China must go beyond size and speed to achieve strength and quality. This is why the economy is set to grow by 7% annually in the next 5 years, which is a marked slowdown from the double digit growth over the past 3 decades. This slower quantitative growth will make more room for higher qualitative growth and create conditions for 4 major transitions:
一是从依赖投资和出口拉动的增长方式向消费、投资、出口相协调转变。二是从凭借廉价劳动力优势向创新驱动、内生增长方式转变。三是从传统产业为主向发展战略性新兴产业和现代服务业，形成多元支撑的方式转变。四是从“透支”资源和环境的粗放增长方式向低碳、绿色的发展方式转变。
a move from reliance on investment and export to balanced growth driven by consumption, investment and export;
a shift from low labour cost to home-grown innovation;
a change from traditional industries to emerging strategic industries and modern services;
and an evolution from energy and resources consuming development to low-carbon and green growth.
