历史上,中国并非没有尝试过西方式的民主,但都并未给中国带来繁荣和富强。今天,我们找到了一条适合自己发展的道路,建立了有中国特色的民主制度,我们有什么理由动摇?有什么理由折腾?
It was not for lack of trying that Western-style democracy did not bring China the prosperity and strength it had wanted so badly in its modern history. Now that we have found our own road to success and Chinese style democracy, why should we waver or give it up?
第二个问题,中国是否已在坐二望一,很快超过美国?回答这个问题前,我们不妨看以下几对关键词:
Second question, how soon is China going to overtake the US? Before we answer this question, let's look at some key words:
一是“总量”和“人均”。尽管中国经济总量成了世界第二,去年达到5.8万亿美元,但人均GDP只有4300美元,仍排在世界百位左右,离中等发达国家相距甚远,仅占英国的1/9,美国的1/10。
"Aggregates" and "per capita". China's economic aggregates stood at 5.8 trillion US dollars in 2010, ranking second in the world. But its per capita GDP was merely 4,300 US dollars, lower than about 100 other countries, only one ninth of the UK, and one tenth of the US.
二是“沿海”与“内地”及“城市”与“农村”。中国的沿海很发达,城市很繁荣,但是中国西部经济仍很落后,而且中国的城镇化率仅有46%,城乡居民收入比高达3.23:1。我曾在中国最贫困的省份之一甘肃担任两年省长助理,对此深有感受。甘肃地处大西北,自然条件恶劣,沙漠化对当地人民的生存构成了严峻挑战,经济发展困难很大。许多农村的孩子们没有电脑,更从来没有上过互联网。很多孩子在完成国家9年义务阶段教育后,由于经济原因不得不中止学业。
"Coastal" and "inland", "urban" and "rural". We have in China both rich cities in the coastal regions and under developed poor regions in the west of the country. The urbanisation rate is only 46%, and the urban/rural income ratio is as high as 3.23 to 1. I served for two years as Assistant Governor in one of the poorest provinces in northwest China – Gansu. Gansu suffers from tough natural conditions. Desertification threatens the livelihood of the local people and economic development is a huge challenge. Many of the children in the countryside do not have access to computers or the internet. Many boys and girls have to drop out of school because their families cannot afford their continued education.
三是“制造”与“创造”。中国是制造业大国,但很多产品只有加工、封装等劳动力密集型环节在中国完成,研发设计、关键部件和市场营销都在国外,中国处在国际产业链的末端。中国出口商品中90%是贴牌生产,每部手机售价的20%、计算机售价的30%、数控机床售价的20%到40%,都要支付给国外专利持有者。从“中国制造”到“中国创造”还有很长的路要走。
"Made in China" and "created in China". For all its manufacturing strength, China is still at the lower end of the value chain. In many cases only the labour-intensive parts of production such as processing and packaging are done in China. R&D, design, key components and marketing are done elsewhere. 90% of China's export commodities are OEM products. 20% of the retail value of every mobile phone, 30% that of computers and 20-40% that of Computer Numerical Control machine tools go to foreign patent owners. There is still a long way to go from "Made in China" to "created in China".
四是“粗放”与“集约”。有数据显示,中国单位GDP的能耗是国际水平的三至四倍,是英国的八倍。中国消耗了全球46%的钢铁、16%的能源、52%的水泥,但仅创造了全球8%左右的GDP。中国经济发展效率还有待大幅提升,需要从“粗放型”向“集约型”发展。
"Energy-intensive" and "energy-efficient". Statistics show that China's energy intensity is 3 to 4 times that of the international average and 8 times that of the UK. China consumes 46% of the world's iron and steel, 16% of energy, 52% of cement, and only produces 8% of the world's GDP. China still has a lot to do to raise the quality and efficiency of its economic growth.