石油出口国感受油价下跌之痛 Oil Exporters Feel Squeeze Of Falling Crude

Big oil-producing countries are showing signs of distress as the global credit crunch and falling crude prices begin to squeeze government budgets and delay projects.

Fears that the boom days are fading appear strongest in Iran and Venezuela, whose governments have come to rely on oil prices to prop up otherwise shaky economies. Both countries this week led a chorus within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries calling for an emergency meeting of the cartel, now set for Nov. 18, to weigh a production cut.

The global economic crisis is eating into oil demand, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, and helping drive down crude prices. Some forecasters said that despite a strong thirst for oil in Asia and the Middle East, global oil consumption could flatten out next year, potentially ending nearly a decade of steady demand growth.

In early afternoon trading, benchmark crude for November delivery fell $1.59, or 1.8%, to $87.36, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude has plunged around $60 a barrel from its July high, and analysts said signs of a deep recession among industrialized countries could move prices down further.

Oil exporters have racked up cash surpluses as prices soared to historic highs. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, is expected to record $138 billion this year, up from $95 billion last year.

But government spending also has soared within OPEC and among other big producers such as Russia, based in part on the expectation that oil prices would remain high.

Standard & Poor's said last week that Venezuela's budget balance 'could deteriorate quickly' if crude prices fall sharply. The nationalization of a number of industrial companies is expected to cost the government around $6 billion, or about 2% of gross domestic product, in 2008, according to Standard & Poor's.

PFC Energy, a Washington consultancy, estimates that Venezuela needs an oil price of nearly $95 a barrel to assure macroeconomic stability, three times what they needed in 2000. By contrast, Saudi Arabia requires an oil price of $55 a barrel, more than double from eight years ago, according to PFC estimates.

PFC believes Iran's price threshold to be similar to Saudi Arabia's. But the International Monetary Fund warned recently that Iran will have to cut state subsidies and shave government spending if oil prices stay below $90 a barrel.

Russia also could face cutbacks, as its budget for 2009 counts on a price of $82 a barrel for Russian Urals crude, which sells at a discount to the U.S. benchmark.

For much of this year, the oil-driven economies of the Persian Gulf have been largely buffered from the financial turmoil in the U.S. and Europe. But that appears to be changing.

Investors in the six Gulf states, which include OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar, have taken a pounding this year, amassing almost $350 billion in stock-market losses since January, according to Zawya Dow Jones estimates.

Those losses go some way in explaining why credit in some areas is drying up.

Consultants at Medley Global Advisors said big Middle East power and water projects, vital to meeting the region's electricity demand, are facing financing delays and rising capital costs. Some petrochemical projects, which provide raw materials to make plastics and fertilizers, also are under pressure.

'The global credit crunch has seen the number of international banks lending to the power and water sector decline,' said Medley energy director Bill Farren-Price.

The financial turmoil doesn't appear to have affected big state-run oil-exploration projects in the Gulf, largely because national companies such as Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Aramco, typically finance these projects with cash.

But signs are emerging in other OPEC countries that energy projects could get caught in the financial fallout. The industry's efforts to pump more oil and natural gas already are suffering from high costs, technical challenges and political barriers.

A senior Nigerian oil official said the financial environment has weakened the West African government's ability to tap local and foreign banks to help bankroll its share of oil and natural-gas projects with energy companies such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC. Nigeria's joint-venture projects with foreign companies are important to the government's goal of boosting production to four million barrels a day over the next decade or so.

Libya's National Oil Co. also may have to delay or scupper some projects if financing problems worsen, said company chief Shokri Ghanem, who is also the North African nation's top representative to OPEC. Mr. Ghanem declined to say what type of projects were at risk, but said, 'we aren't sure if all the finance is going to be there.'

OPEC is likely to reduce production to defend prices from falling below $80 a barrel. But some analysts said that heightened costs elsewhere in the oil patch may keep prices from falling much further anyway.

A study released by Bernstein Research of New York this week argues that oil prices will remain linked to the cost of producing supplies from difficult but crucial fields deep offshore and elsewhere, a cost the research firm puts at between $75 and $80 a barrel. By 2012, the firm said, that cost likely will have jumped to $105 a barrel.

受全球信贷危机和原油价格回落影响，主要产油国已开始承受预算压力、被迫推迟建设项目，这些国家经济正显现出走软的迹象。

担心油价风光日子正在远去的恐慌情绪在伊朗和委内瑞拉表现得最为明显，这两国政府都依赖高油价来支撑经济，否则经济就会面临动荡。在两国的大力呼吁下，欧佩克(OPEC)本周决定在11月18日召开紧急会议商讨减产事宜。

全球经济危机正在侵蚀石油需求，尤其是美国和欧洲市场的需求，从而导致原油价格不断走低。一些预测人士表示，尽管亚洲和中东地区仍有旺盛的石油需求，但全球石油消耗量明年可能会趋平，将近十年的需求稳定增长期可能会就此告终。

纽约商交所周四后市前段，十一月轻质低硫原油期货跌1.59美元，至每桶87.36美元，跌幅1.8%。原油价格已经较7月份的高点暴跌了将近60美元；分析师们表示，受工业化国家陷入深度衰退的迹象影响，油价可能还会进一步下挫。

随着此前油价一路飙升至历史高点，石油出口国也收获了滚滚财源。预计全球最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯今年将入帐1,380亿美元，远高于去年的950亿美元。

但欧佩克国家和俄罗斯等主要产油国的政府支出也随之迅猛增长，部分原因是这些国家认为油价会继续居高不下。

标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)上周表示，如果原油价格大幅下挫，委内瑞拉预算平衡可能会迅速恶化。据标准普尔预计，委内瑞拉今年将诸多工业企业收归国有可能会耗费政府大约60亿美元，约占该国国内生产总值(GDP)的2%。

华盛顿咨询机构PFC Energy预计，委内瑞拉现在需要将近每桶95美元的油价水平，才能确保宏观经济稳定，这一价位是2000年时的3倍。相比之下，根据PFC的预计，沙特则需要每桶55美元的油价以确保经济稳定，较8年前上涨了一倍多。

PFC认为，伊朗所需要的油价水平和沙特阿拉伯差不多。但国际货币基金组织(IMF)近期警告说，如果油价跌破每桶90美元，伊朗就不得不削减国家补贴和政府支出。

俄罗斯也可能面临着削减支出，因为该国2009年财政预算是建立在俄罗斯乌拉尔原油每桶82美元基础上的，该原油价格要低于美国基准原油。

今年多数时间，波斯湾那些石油经济体基本没有遭受到美国和欧洲金融动荡带来的冲击。但情况似乎即将发生变化。

据Zawya Dow Jones预计，海湾六国（包括欧佩克成员国沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、科威特和卡塔尔）的投资者今年遭受重创，1月份以来在股市总计损失了将近3,500亿美元。

这些损失也是一些领域信贷日益枯竭的部分原因。

Medley Global Advisors的咨询师表示，中东的大型电力和水力项目正面临着融资延迟和建设成本不断上升的困难，这些项目对满足该地区的电力需求至关重要。一些为制造塑料和化肥提供原材料的石化项目也面临着资金压力。

Medley能源主管普赖斯(Bill Farren-Price)表示，全球信贷危机已经使得能为电力和水力项目提供贷款的跨国银行数量减少。

金融振荡似乎还没有影响到海湾地区的大型国营石油勘探项目，这主要是因为该地区的沙特阿拉伯石油公司(Aramco)等国有企业通常会为这些项目提供现金资金。

但其他欧佩克国家已经出现了能源项目可能遭受金融危机冲击的迹象。该行业增产石油和天然气的努力已受到了高成本、技术难题和政治壁垒的影响。

尼日利亚一位高级石油官员表示，融资环境已经削弱了该国政府从本地和海外银行获取资金的能力，从而影响到了政府与荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell Plc)等能源公司的石油和天然气合资项目。对尼日利亚政府来说，与海外石油公司的合资企业项目是该国实现未来十年原油产量提高到每天400万桶目标的重要因素。

利比亚国家石油公司负责人迦南(Shokri Ghanem)表示，如果融资问题出现恶化，公司可能会被迫推迟或放弃一些项目。他同时也是利比亚驻欧佩克首席代表。迦南不愿透露哪类项目可能会面临危险，但他说，我们不确定能否获得项目所需所有资金。

欧佩克可能会削减产量，防止油价跌破每桶80美元。但一些分析师表示，产油行业其他成本上升可能也会阻止油价进一步大幅下挫。

纽约Bernstein Research本周发表研究报告称，原油价格将继续受到难以开采但至关重要的深水和其他油田的采油成本影响，该机构估计成本会在每桶75-80美元。该机构预计，2012年这一成本可能会飙升至每桶105美元。