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The whole climate system is interconnected. And the ocean affects the atmosphere.
整个气候系统相互关联。海洋影响着大气。
And El Nino has some pretty drastic effects on what happens with weather elsewhere. It’s like a weather domino effect when it gets going.
厄尔尼诺现象也剧烈影响着其他地区的天气。这就如同多米诺骨牌效应一样。
Okay, let’s do a rundown of some of those dominos. What are they and where do they happen?
好，让我们来分析一下这些多米诺骨牌效应。它们是什么？发生在哪里?
Okay, here are some major examples of effects:
好，以下是一些关于多米诺骨牌效应的主要例子:
Instead of usual rising air and rainy conditions in southeast Asia, that area sees subsiding air, which means dry weather and can cause drought.
东南亚地区通常会因上升的潮湿空气带来多雨天气，而厄尔尼诺现象会带来下沉的空气从而导致截然相反的干燥天气和干旱。
And in 2016, for example, there was a major drought in Indonesia that caused food shortages and helped fuel huge wildfires.
例如，2016年，印度尼西亚发生了一场严重干旱，导致粮食短缺，并助长了大规模野火。
Meanwhile other places, such as part of eastern Africa and parts of South America, often see higher rainfall, which can cause major flooding.
与此同时，在其他地区，如东非和南美部分地区，经常出现降雨量骤增，进而导致严重洪水。
And changes in looping air patterns also alter things like the jet stream across the U.S. and tends to bring cooler weather to the south and warmer to the north.
大气环流模式的变化也会改变美国各地的急流，往往会给美国南方带来较冷的天气，而给北方带来较热的天气。
But it’s not all bad news, we do tend to see less hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
但也不全是坏消息，我们确实通常会看到大西洋飓风活动减少。
That’s because the atmosphere is more stable—hurricanes need unstable air to get going.
这是因为大气变得更加稳定了——飓风形成需要不稳定的空气。
(But this year there are also super warm ocean waters—that’s like hurricane fuel—and it’s hard to know which influence will win out. So TBD on that one.)
(然而，今年的温暖海水可能会引发飓风，因此目前尚不确定哪种影响将占上风。因此，还有待确定。)
Wow. That’s like a global weather monkey wrench.
哇。厄尔尼诺好像全球天气的活动扳手。
But, you know, the reason we’re talking about this today on the podcast is because the Nino is here.
我们今天在播客上之所以谈论这个是因为尼诺回归了。
So, “news we can use” time. What we might expect from this one?
正好是“我们可以利用新闻”的时间。我们从厄尔尼诺现象可以预测到什么吗?
So that's really tricky to forecast, but right now, there are slightly better-than-even odds that this event will develop into a strong one.
嗯，很难预测，但目前，本次发展成为强厄尔尼诺现象的可能性略高于平均水平。
It should build in strength in the coming months. And typically El Ninos peak in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
在未来几个月内，厄尔尼诺现象将逐渐增强，预计将在北半球的冬季达到顶峰。
And strength is important because we have more confidence will see certain effects when it’s stronger.
强度至关重要，因为当强度达到时，我们更有信心会看到一定的气候效果。
But nothing is a guarantee—a strong event in 2016 didn’t bring needed rains to Southern California as the one in 1998 did.
尽管目前还无法保证会发生什么--2016年的强厄尔尼诺现象并没有像1998年那样给南加州带来所需的降雨。
So we are most in talking about weather there, but how is it going to affect global temperatures?
我们谈论了很多这样的天气，不过，厄尔尼诺将会如何影响全球气温?
Things are already getting warmer with climate change.
随着气候变化，全球天气变得越来越暖。
Does El Nino add to that, take away?
厄尔尼诺现象会加剧还是缓解全球变暖?
